24
Jul

Tuesday- Can You Say Record Natural Gas Storage & Falling Crack Spreads?

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Oil, Gasoline and Natural Gas are all again coming under pressure this morning. This pressure is the result of a changing tone in OPEC which now back to fretting over whether or not the global economy can continue to bear the burden of such high oil prices AND continue to consume oil at such a breakneck pace. Today Iran's oil minister said OPEC stands ready to inject more oil into the oil market if need be. Probably not Iran personally since they their own set of issues but OPEC in general. They've said this more subtlely for just about ever but they've dropped the "it's your refinery capacity stupid" line. As to natural gas, see below.

I know it's only Tuesday but we're at a pretty pivotal time this week for natural gas so why wait until the morning before the number to spill the beans? The final nail in the coffin for the old natural gas record for this week in history, set waaayyy back in 2006, came out yesteday with the revelation that natural gas imports soared last week. Gross imports rose 1.7 Bcfgpd week to week which would give you 12 additonal Bs relative to last week's 65 Bcf number before you even consider weather.

  • LNG Hits A Record 3.8 Bcfgpd! That's double year ago levels. Until recently there's been a fire sale on in the UK and therefore little demand for imports so a lot of LNG that would normally be bound for Europe showed up at U.S. regassification sites.

lng-072307.jpg

  • Canadian Imports Inched Back Up To 9.4 Bcfgpd.  Still not falling through the floor as just about everyone expected. It's got to fall off hard at some point with the dearth of drilling up their but so far they like our high prices.

When You Consider The Weather Was a Bit Cooler We're Exceedingly Likely To Hit A New Record For Gas Storage For This Week Of The Year. Cooling degree days fell to 72 from 76 in the prior week, not doing Man Bear Pig any favors.  In the year ago week, CDDs hit 103 and, as such, we recorded a small (7 Bcf) withdrawal from gas storage.

Taken Together With Those Fat Imports I'd Look For A Number Around 80 Bcf. But really anything over 64 Bcf and we're in record land. Gas will need a storm or a mongo heat wave in the very near future to hold a range of $5.75 to $6.  In the chart below, the blue segment shows the divergence from year ago change in storage. This would push storage into a 1% SURPLUS to year ago levels and back up to a 17% surplus to the 5 year average.

gas-sto-with-inj-072307.jpg

Of course, if $6 breaks look for the curtailment announcements to hit the presses. Next week's weather is small comfort either with 77 CDDs expected. If that number comes in as expected and imports remain elevated (and there's a distinct possibility they will) the YoY surplus could easily grow to 3% next week. Recall that we were last in surplus territory in early January before more winter like weather set in. This re-emergence into surplus, could drive prices briefly into the $5.75 to $6.00 range.

We bounced off $6 yesterday as expected, but given the stuff outlined above we may go lower still soon. The August contract hit $6.001 before a very modest, eh, increase to $6.039. So we ended the day down only $0.40 or 6%.

Ok, enough of that...on to oil.

Crude Oil retreated slightly yesterday after OPEC said it was worried about the high price of oil's impact on the global economy. As in, if the economy slows down, all those American and assorted other folks won't buy as much oil.

Gasoline. Man what a one hit wonder last week's recovery was for gasoline. The perma-bulls put out some spectacular notes last week in unabashed "I told you so" fashion. I just said, "it was the imports stupid" and while the refiners have weakened crack spreads have weakened further still. If August RBOB takes out $2.08 today, look out below!

Holy Falling Crack Spreads Zman! This is my favorite chart of the week! No wonder the analyst community is starting to turn more pessimistic. It only took them being bludgeoned with the data for over two months but at least now they appear to be  starting to catch up to what you and I already know.

cracks-072307aaa.jpgThis is how Upstream Summarized BPs's beat for the 2Q this morning.

UK supermajor BP today posted a 1% fall in quarterly post-tax profit to $6.1 billion as lower output and refinery outages outweighed near-record refining margins.

Holdings Watch:

CALLS:

  • (EOG)  took an opener in the August $70s for $4.20. I feel that a sell rating was unwarranted here and meant to trash the stock. Last bid $3.90.
  • (NFX)  - also took an opener here in the August 50s for  $1.30. Unlikely to add more before the gas number on Thursday but if the E&Ps get shelled again prior to Friday I may double up as I really want to be in for the earnings call on the 26th. Last bid $1.15.
  • (HAL) - so much for Cramer's 50/50 shot of this being a miss. I'm up 30% on my roll forward position taken Friday and will add more on the way up, not on the way down. Setting a stop at 20% profits because gas can take this one down short term and there's no reason to give back profits when you can sell with every intention of buying the name back again by week's end. They're still table pounding cheap to their peers and with the buyback and improved outlook they have a little momentum built up in the shares.

Many thanks to Cody yesterday for writing this blurb regarding the (HAL) conference call so that I didn't have to:

Co has been experiencing a good recovery from the frac market slowdown this past winter. They are expecting activity levels in equipment utilization rates to continue to increase throughout the rest of this year, as their customers work toward achieving their 2007 production goals. They’ve seen a slight deterioration in pricing, less than 5% in the first half of this year, and this could continue during the second half of the year. Their expectation is that activities will remain high for the balance of the year. They remain very bullish on their ability to grow Eastern Hemisphere operations for the balance of this year and throughout the rest of the decade. Co will continue to take advantage of low valuation to buyback shares aggressively. Co says the large contract win that they had last year in Norway is progressing well, and the customers beginning to award the co new work outside of that contract. Co says the realtime operation center established earlier this month in Saudi is providing a “significant contribution” to their overall performance. They now believe the project will reach its peak during 1Q08...

PUTS: No action

  • The refiners started off miserably, recovered and even looked strong for much of the day before selling off hard into the close...again. Still holding puts on (TSO), (WNR) and (FTO) here.
  • (NBR) - for a big stock in a sector with a mega merger that was popular on both sides of the trade and left the OIH 2.3% higher on the day at a new all time high, NBR sure did shrug it off, closing essentially flat on the day. It's the differentiation of land versus offshore (especially deepwater) that's coming into play. (BHI) already warned over Canada and (NBR), by not participating in this rally, along with (NOV) may be giving you an idea of how it's going to do come earnings this evening.

Earnings Watch. The week so far:
2qeps-072307.jpg

Tuesday's Earnings

(BJS) - 3Q earnings of $0.57 appear to be a cent ahead of consensus which is below year ago levels due to weakness in Canada. Revenue came in just above the Street. 4Q guidance is $0.60 to $0.62  vs Street at $0.62.

(SII) - the bits and mud company comes in right in line top and bottom line. Issues 2007 guidance that straddles current expectations.

(ESV) -not yet released but should be BMO.

(NBR) - post close. Conference call tomorrow.

Odds & EndsAnalyst Watch: (CHK) check downgraded by Fortis to hold,  (GSF) downgraded to hold at Jefferies,  FBR ups its price target for (HAL) from $40 to $45.

Up And Coming Nutbag Watch: From Reuters ~ Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa has come up with an unusual solution. Correa wants wealthy nations to pay Ecuador $350 million a year in exchange for leaving an estimated 1 billion barrels of oil under the ground in the pristine Yasuni rainforest.

105 Responses to “Tuesday- Can You Say Record Natural Gas Storage & Falling Crack Spreads?”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    RBOB through $2.08
    Nat Gas through $6 at $5.93
    Oil down $0.83 at present rebounding off what had been a buck loss.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    RBOB down $0.06 to $2.03.
    Brent getting whacked for $1.40
    WTI down $1

    SU will get hurt but maybe not at the open.
    EOG likely to give me a “half priced” entry point for a DD. I’ll watch nat gas and probably won’t act too early.

    Ugly day for the energy sector appears to be ahead.

    TSO looking to open at 2 1/2 month low

  3. 3
    Mike Stevens Says:

    Things are looking a bit ugly this morning. I have a long position in VLO that I had planned to sell around the earnings release but it looks like last week would have been the best time to sell. Good luck all.

  4. 4
    Brian08 Says:

    Cody, don’t know if you saw my post from late yesterday, but looking at the charts of TSO/WNR I saw a major negative divergence in the MACDs for both…I’m really new at this so am I using this incorrectly or reading it wrong?? I know there is no ONE indicator or tool to use, just thought that this was a very bearish signal…

    Z- Hopefully so with CHK and EOG holding up??? 🙂

  5. 5
    codydog Says:

    BJS reports that pressure pumping margins in north america/canada fell to 33% from 40, and int’l to 15% from 16

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    TSO getting crushed,
    WNR – no volume but down 5% (heh, heh)
    FTO – flat as usual but it can’t last.

  7. 7
    codydog Says:

    Brian, it all tea leaf reading to me actually….for day trading I find that Pivot Points work as well as anything.

    Keep in mind too, that with the relatively new ultra huge hedge funds, they can create a chart pattern or news event or headline, then as lemmings like us rush in, the fund is able to work off their position into the feeding frenzy those events create

    I think macro analysis is beginning to make a resurgence and tech analysis is beginning to fade,

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    FTO minute chart fell off the scale. That easily looks $3 lower (from $45 to $42)

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Cody – I agree about the “creation of charts” That’s what I was talking about yesterday with the patter of popping the refiners for no apparent reason and then watching them sell into the close.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    SU headed lower if oil continues to be weak. Too big a run, too little impact lower gas will have on their cost side.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Anybody else having trouble getting onto PSW?

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Careful on those WNR spreads, I bought puts 3 days or so ago and $3 higher and I’m underwater on the $55s. That guy is a thief.

  13. 13
    codydog Says:

    great call by Nicky on NG sunday

  14. 14
    sane Says:

    N,

    I’d like to vote for some very techncal stuff.

    Sane

  15. 15
    T-Tupp Says:

    BRIAN08- i think you mean bearish divergence, and although the macd is showing negative momentum, it is not showing a bearish divergence.

    it did have one last month (a precursor to the price action this month or so) with the higher high put in on june 18th than from the previous high on june 6th, but the macd was making a significantly lower high on the same two days….

  16. 16
    T-Tupp Says:

    nicky are we in 4 of the 5 count now?

  17. 17
    Brian08 Says:

    Thanks for the lesson T…I’m still reading my book so I’m probably gonna be wrong 95% of the time…

  18. 18
    T-Tupp Says:

    yea Z, WNR’s were rich to intiate a position. they have came down 5-6 IV’s… big bucks in OTM options.

    dont fret though, i think it may go back over 60IV to maybe 65 when HV diverges too far from market value.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    I thought I was sarcastic! So Flynn says the top is definitely in now. No comment.

  20. 20
    T-Tupp Says:

    tso, wnr, – are extremely expensive… buy ITM options guys.

    hoc, fto, vlo- are fairlyy well priced

    and alj could amost double in IV if we see some ation from he past, but on a IV basis looks like the best bargain

  21. 21
    T-Tupp Says:

    brian08- do you see what im talking about now from the chart?

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    RBOB below $2 will cause the a nasty capitulatory sell down in the refining sector. I think VLO is overdone here but the rest have a ways to go. Interestingly, estimates continue to rise almost daily Even for 3Q which has got to be reversed given today’s charts on cracks.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Thanks TUPP – ALJ I’ve looked at a few times but it’s actually fundamentally better off than the other little dudes. However, a falling tide sinks all boats!

  24. 24
    T-Tupp Says:

    might add to TSO puts after we get a bounce from LOD… but this is a perfect time use bear put spread.

  25. 25
    Brian08 Says:

    T–Yes loud and clear…Thanks for the heads up…I’ll hopefully get it right one of these days!!

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    on BJS call – talking about competitive US market for rigs right now. Called the rig count a sideways move which is a bit of a slight to what has been a very strong run. Drilling problems in tx due to all the rain.

    Canada stunk as expected.

    More to follow…

    NOV taking it on chin for 2nd day. maybe an opportunity there.

  27. 27
    codydog Says:

    Nicky–how can you read the flynn stuff? I find it very difficult, like someone eating without table manners

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Cody – If I ever sound like that guy shoot me!

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Thinking about losing my FTO $50s if the stock continues to hug $44 much longer. It’s a nice gain and I can buy it back on the pump. Plan to continue to hold the $45s but will likely punt the legacy $40s opportunistically as they wake up.

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Nicky – thanks. So you’re thinking a modest correction to the upper $60s still? Sorry listening to a call and need the simple answer. Gives me a headache to read your stuff while listening to a management team drone on and on and on and on… Thank heavens, here comes the Q&A.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    BJS – conf call Q&A 1
    pressure in fraccing as expected
    cementing robust (still a little erosion in pricing)
    – will defend market share in US market. – that’s a comment people won’t like…doesn’t say good things about go fwd prices.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    BJS Q&A 2

    more questions on US margin declines, analysts sound concerned about all the new entrants. Answer Co. says is a combination of them offering more advanced drilling services AND prices.

    Split of 50/50 where price matters as much as tech.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    looking at the BJS $27.50 or $30 Aug puts.

  34. 34
    sane Says:

    Z,
    Unless you inject a bunch of self righteous cockiness into your posts I don’t think you have to worry about sounding like Flynn

    Sane

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    BJS Q&A 3 –
    Future very uncertain, “you go out there, you try the best you can, and at the end of the day you get your report card and you know where you are” – it’s a fair statement if not very comforting.

    Labor – trying to reduce turnover through “creative” ways. Int’l trying to use indegenous personnel more and more.

    Seeing some more job cancellations. Utilization high but off slightly

    Other
    FTO still cratering
    Thanks Nicky – that’s what I thought you thought.

  36. 36
    codydog Says:

    Nicky–keep in mind that any hurricane pop, without the geopolitical price push, will attract sellers like me who own CHK and HK

  37. 37
    codydog Says:

    z–didnt BJS say they were losing mkt share at 3-5% per quarter? that seems big

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Cody -That was margin erosion number I believe. They said now is the time to regain some U.S. market share lost over the last 3 or 4 years. Analyst sound a little dubious to me.

  39. 39
    codydog Says:

    when I hear stuff like “regain mkt share” by mgmt, I hear “Ihave a vision” stuff and figure its gettin time

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    yeah, looking at the minute chart on BJS since the Q&A I’d say some other folks are agreeing with you.

  41. 41
    Marie Says:

    Cramer believes that SLB is poised to break through the 100 mark soon

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    BJS – still hammering them on prices on the Q&A. Saying price issue is not only spot and that contract prices are “down some” as well. For 2008, it’s “too early to tell”.

    Analyst is sounding more dubious on pricing.

    Capacity add question: not embarking on a capacity addition initiative. Getting capacity into hot spots – so some new internal geographic expansion. Sounds like it will be bad for margins to me but maybe not.

    Other:

    Nice move up in NG

  43. 43
    codydog Says:

    nicky–do you think all the utilities and NG users are in buying all the NG they need for winter now? or do they just buy at mkt and pass along their costs?

    I’d bet NG under 6, looks mighty cheap to CFOs who are used to seeing 8 or 9 bucks

  44. 44
    codydog Says:

    z–is BJS hinting at a stock buyback?

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    Marie, Thanks. And by his logic, $100 means $120 soon, right?!

    This is the same guy who dumped HAL saying their stock couldn’t rally and that they’d miss numbers. Wrong on both accounts.

    BJS management sounds defensive no. Analyst not buying the market share and margin talk. CC taking on a little bit of a negative tone. Not trying to overplay but it sounds like a downgrade coming from at least one analyst (of course he could be at hold and do nothing)

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Cody – if they said that I missed it.

  47. 47
    codydog Says:

    BJS said they’d use their cash wisely–whats smarter to an analyst than returning cash to investorss? j/k

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Marie, I like SLB fine don’t get me wrong but Cramer just gets under my skin sometimes. He talks “best of breed” and valuations and growth but you can’t trust his motives. SLB does just fine go forward and my go through $100 but HAL is 2/3 their forward multiple and goes through $40 in that case.

    BJS – analysts just keeping coming back to market share and margins. Conf call not going well.

  49. 49
    codydog Says:

    XOM reports problems at Beaumont

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Cody – any details.

    BJS just said they’re “not pricing to regain market share” – up until that point I think a lot of people thought that’s what the last 30 minutes meant. hmmmm.

  51. 51
    Brian08 Says:

    WNR is at LOD.

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    BJS – I didn’t like that call, they finally cut it off and they sound a bit exasperated which is understandable b/c analysts can be very annoying. trust me.

    WNR – LOD – I see that. More to come.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    BJS was flat pre call, now down $0.80.

    TRADE: $0.75 and $0.80 on the $27.50 AUG puts

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Cody – any update on Beuamont?

  55. 55
    codydog Says:

    z–are you on ESV call now?

  56. 56
    codydog Says:

    z–from tier 2 house, awaiting further clarification, but sense is this xom etc may get a bounce here

    if possible, when I post energy info here, I’d prefer it not leak to phils site, if not possible please let me know

  57. 57
    Denise Says:

    Any thoughts on tnh or pot with drop in nat gas??

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    Cody – I’m on now. miossed the beg. anything imp? If don’t share big news I’d be remiss. I gave you credit. Don’t see the prob. Lots of readers are on both sites. Didn’t mean to offend.

    Denise – it can’t be bad for them or TRA or Agrium etc.

  59. 59
    lman Says:

    zman,

    do you think that NFX will hold around $46. How about the outlook for and after Thurs?

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Iman – depends on nat gas. As tempted as I am to buy more here I’m going to wait for Wednesday late day. I think the move is overdone. With good news Thursday in a couple of areas:
    1) divestitures – possible Bohai and N. Sea
    2) recent Woodford results
    3) plans for the Rockies
    4) cost control
    then they could be back through $50

    On natural gas you’ve got to think that the curtailment press releases are being proofed at places like CHK. Time will tell but we’re very near the threshold in some big plays and we’re underwater out west in a lot of plays.

  61. 61
    lman Says:

    zman,

    thanks. i am hoping that the recent aquisition of Stone Energy’s Rocky Mountain assets will not hold back their earnings

  62. 62
    Brian08 Says:

    Flood gates opened on WNR, went from 55 to 54.54 seemingly in one trade…

  63. 63
    zman Says:

    Iman – I think there will be a lot of talk about what they’ll be exploiting there. Stone has in the past left lots of value behind. Should be the case here and NFX definitely has the expertise to exploit.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    Brian – yup, FTO trying to follow suit.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    ESV Conf Call: That Jud Bailey guy at Jefco is very smart. Question re on use of cash generation. Still like repurchasing stock here and “in the very near term” there will be an announcement” as they’re about done on their current purchase plan…

  66. 66
    codydog Says:

    OXY says on call they would be frightened to death if nat gas fell to $5mbtu

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Hey Cody – I bet that goes double for COP!!!

  68. 68
    codydog Says:

    z–its funny because at 5 to 6, you’d think they’d be buyers of production, assuming they see NG as a long term business

  69. 69
    zman Says:

    Good point. As long as they’re stock prices can hold up and expectations from owners fall they have the currency to make more big Acq’s.

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Lunch – back at 2 est.

  71. 71
    scoop006 Says:

    Does anybody have an opinion on XOM?

  72. 72
    Mike Stevens Says:

    Looks like RBOB wants to reverse course.

  73. 73
    jimbo Says:

    Hemi Energy, a nano-cap revisiting SE Kansas gas fields is bucking the tide. Up 12% (3 cents). GSF up too, testing 79.

  74. 74
    Brian08 Says:

    TSO finally breached 52 – LOD…WNR headed towards 54…

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    TSO – getting pretty close on puts – that probably bounces @ $50.

    What did I miss.

  76. 76
    Brian08 Says:

    Z are you still gonna ride these guys down further or are you going to take some profits in these PUTS?

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    Brian with tight stops on the FTO $50s

    Mulling the rest but I’d have stops in place for now.

    Any news behind the crude and RBOB recovery? A close below $2.08 on RBOB still looks bad.

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Nicky – you around. Thoughts on RBOB here when you get a sec. HO while your at it!

  79. 79
    codydog Says:

    z–any thoughts on spillover from CFC comments into energies?

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    BJS working nicely lower.

    CFC comments? Countrywide Financial? What were they?

  81. 81
    codydog Says:

    they see housing prices deflating as quickly as during the great depression – and thats coming from a 68 yearold CEO!!!!

    also, subprime isnt the issue anymore, prime and home equity loans defaults growing

  82. 82
    Sambone Says:

    Thank goodness I put my stops in, and bght SDS last week.

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    Ahhhh, well it would be negative for gasoline if people figured out that they’re a lot kess “wealthy” than they thought they were but people don’t think that way. They just keep driving. I’ve been pretty impressed with the demand figures of late given we spent a good deal of time > $3/gal.

    If it leads to a slowdown, which is my guess on the market’s feeling about things right now then I see a very modest impact on energy. Global demand growth is seen absorbing a little bit of late 2007 weakness as is by the folks over at IEA and EIA. They talk higher China every time they look about.

    On oil for now I’m still in the upper $60s (say $67.50) for a very near term target. I’d love to get my hands on fresh international crude stocks data but its hard to come by anything recent as always.

    Refiners markedly turning lower. Fresh LOD’s. You’ve got to be brave to step in front of these kinds of declines b/c the fear is that after such a run and the destruction of the daily charts today could just be the beginning. Resetting some put stops lower now!

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    SDS = nice cover job Sambone!

    FTO finally acting like we knew it should gang. WNR and HOC, the priciest of the bunch moveing nicely lower as well (down 8% and 6.5% respectively)

  85. 85
    Brian08 Says:

    Whoopsie, was a little early on that TSO sell…Thanks anyway for the fat profit Z!

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    UBS = namby pamby- neutral ratings yesterday. Come on man, look at those cracks vs eps expectations. How plain doe the writing need to be?!

    Brian – anytime pal. There should be a nice bounce at $50 (they hope) at least. If it doesn’t break this new downtrend I’ll play more.

    TRADE: $4.60 TSO Aug $55s: out at $4.60 for a 53% four day profit.

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    WNR down 9.5% – half coming off table. Rest is house money there now. 😉

    TRADE: 1/2 WNR $55 puts coming off trying to catch the mid with the stock down 10% now.

  88. 88
    Brian08 Says:

    Z again many thanks for the WNR trade…Who woulda know that a valuation gap play could be so simplistic on the outside and yet so profitable!!

  89. 89
    jonnynav Says:

    How is MRO heading?

  90. 90
    codydog Says:

    z or nicky– although margin requirments are well understood, are you hearing of anyone who posts bonds having a markdown applied on the bonds and additional cash margin or t-bills being requested?

  91. 91
    codydog Says:

    nicxky- re 92, yes…after they said it, the overall mkt tanked look at GS, etc..although with 6% mortgages and sub 5% unemplyment, I’m not sure how they can substantiate the claim

  92. 92
    codydog Says:

    I’ve seen this before in the 90s. The banks ended up with a mountain of deeds and sold them off as quickly as possible. Appraisals dropped 30% overnight, and even commercial property with ok tenants, and positive cash flow was sold for 50-60 cents on the dollar. I think the bulk of the real estate is not in super hot markets like NY, but in middle America. You’ll see vulture funds pop up and steal peoples homes. Sad.
    An interest rate cut is called for, but the Fed is tied up by the upcoming election – the window to do it is small.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Nicky – that gasoline expectation seems a bit big at 2+mm bls. I think it will top 1 mm myself which is likely to send RBOB testing $2 but of course it all depends on the imports which I’d be will rebound.

  94. 94
    Kevin Says:

    Z,

    Coal stocks are really getting crushed… down almost 6% just today!

    Are you positive on this sector?

    Thanks!

    K

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    K – Earnings have been not so good to date and the brokers aren’t supporting them. I think there’s a long trade there if we can get natural gas off its butt. That may take some patience but the trade is coming when gas soars. Of course, no heat and, at this point, no storms, and you’ve got no trade.

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    K – thanks for the reminder on coal…saw it yesterday and early today but I’ve been busy with the refiner call. I’ll rework some numbers and have a better call than comment #109 for morning.

    NBR looks to have bricked top and bottom. PR has lots to say about int’l but N. America stunk, even U.S. was bad. Unfortunately for them US land drilling and well servicing and Canada make up 59% of revenues vs 22% of revenues for Int’l. Took a nasty lick in their long term investments

  97. 97
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    Z,

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    K

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