23
Jul

Merger Monday

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(RIG) and (GSF) Merge. Deepwater capable drillers hook up and pre market shows big up percentage moves for both. The OIH will likely take out 190 at the open and 200 could be in the cards as (DO), (NE) and (ESV) and other higher end, offshore and deepwater drillers and ancillary deepwater service companies (like my (OII) are bid up in anticipation of further sector consolidation. Land drillers should do less well but nevertheless should rally on the news.  We'll be taking a look at laggards in the OIH early this morning. To forestall any questions, no I won't consider shorting the OIH or any of it's high flying components now. Given another few days the index could easily test 200.

Second Big Up For The OIH, (HAL) Tops Views. We rolled to August here on Friday so whew! No miss. $0.60 (after excluding a 3 cent gain) nicely topped Street consensus of $0.56. This is what Cramer calls a miss? That was his call Friday.  International operations were easily enough to offset North American softness attributable to Canada. U.S. well stimulation picked up nicely.

Third Big Up For The OIH. Price targets are rising swiftly. FBR raised it's price target for (SLB) after Friday's stout earnings from $93 to $118.

Analyst Watch: Refiners Put On Notice: UBS initiates coverage on the refining industry. The solitary buy rating goes to (VLO). Good call there. Namby-pamby neutral ratings go to (FTO),(HOC), (SUN), and (TSO), and a reduce rating goes to (WNR). In other broker news, B of A cuts (COP) to neutral and Citi hits (EOG) and (KWK) with sells. The last two are ridiculous but we'll thank them later for the reduced entry points for calls which we'll take as gas approaches $6 and the CFTC short covering starts.

Natural Gas Getting Cracked Early...as Nicky said it would last week so kudos to her! Will gas prices stay above $6/Mcf? I was asked over the weekend if natural liquids prices would prevent gas prices from falling much below $6. Well, let me say that while I don’t think gas goes much if at all below $6 soon, the support of gas prices by NGL’s will be modest compared to other factors, mostly importantly weather followed closely by imports.

As to the NGL's question. When you have relatively higher relative NGL prices (to natural gas) a greater percentage of NGL’s will be extracted thereby reducing dry gas production, decreasing injections to gas storage and reducing the climb in storage relative to year ago levels and thereby supporting prices. But given the way the government presents the data it would take a while to see.

I still think $6 is in the near term cards and then technical trading factors will take charge for the near term. As Nicky so aptly pointed out last week, we stand at the cusp of moving into record gas storage territory. This coming week a year ago saw a 7 Bcf WITHDRAWAL. A 65 Bcf or greater injection would flip us into record storage territory for this week of the year. That’s rather bearish.

Tropics Watch: 3 tropical waves on the way.

tropics-072307.jpg

Perma Bulls On The Warpath. Here's a Bloomberg article calling for $100 oil from a half dozen or so prominent analysts, traders, and hedge fund managers with no vested interest in being unbiased I'm sure. In a nutshell, they say if OPEC doesn't ratchet up production very soon you could see $100 /oil by year end. This year end!

To that claim I say, well what about this?

oil-stocks-072307.jpg

To which they say, "you have to look at it on a days of supply basis, then you'll see how it doesn't matter how much we have in storage, it's about how much more we're consuming now than we were 9 years ago" (the last time we had this much oil in storage).

To which I say, Ok, What's Wrong With This Graph?

days-supply-vs-wti-072307.jpg

Days supply is up where it was, oh, I don't know, say 9 years ago and yet WTI is through the roof. I'm not saying it won't go to a hundred...I'm just saying lets point out the real reason it will. Two words: hot money. Two more words: hedge funds. Enough said.

Odds & Ends

Earnings We Care About This Week Watch:

  • Monday

eps-072307.jpg

  • Tuesday - (BJS), (BP), (CPO), (ESV),
  • Wednesday (COG), (COP), (ECA), (MUR),
  • Thursday (APA), (ESLR), (XOM), (NFX), (SU), (WHQ),
  • Friday (BHI), (CVX)

This is by no means a comprehensive list of energy companies reporting this week. If you've got one you think should be on the list as always pipe up in comment!
IPO’s Of Interest:

SandRidge Energy (formerly Riata): proposed symbol (SD). Another Oklahoma powerhouse comes to market.

  • Top notch management: Tom Ward runs the show, former President and COO of (CHK). His name has attracted top management and technical talent, some from Chesapeake and most from other public companies.
  • Top notch underwriters: Lehman, Goldman, B of A,
  • Operations: Big play is gas ladden West Texas Overthrust or WTO which is where the North and South American continents slammed together creating layers of rock with traps for hydrocarbons. Here SandRidge is concentrating on developing the Pinon Field and two prospects: South Sabino and Big Canyon. They plan to have 30 rigs drilling in the WTO by during 2Q07. They have additional activities in the Cotton Valley Reef trend of E. Tx/N. La, along the Gulf Coast, on the GOM shelf, and in the Piceance Basin of Colorado. The later two areas are not the focus here.
  • Potential drilling locations: 3,800 (2,600 in the WTO).
  • Reserves: 1 Tcfe, 85% natural gas. 99% independently engineered by Netherland Sewell which runs which is the #1 or #2 out there in the business. Almost 60% of reserves are in the Pinon of the WTO area.
  • They own 32 drilling rigs outright and participate in a JV that owns another 12 with (CWEI). This is a huge strength both from cost and control/availability standpoints. Especially in this time of spiraling service inflation.
  • More on the WTO: through year end 2006 200 Bcfe has been produced from only 300 wells scattered across several fields (including the Pinon) in the WTO. These are stacked pay or multi zone targets but the area is remote and lacks infrastructure (Terrell and Pecos counties). SandRidge is acquiring a massive 3D shoot over the area now (1,300 sq miles). The first two phase of seismic should help additional infill drilling opportunities in the Pinon and should be complete by year end.
  • The other two WTO prospects are near the Pinon. The Big Canyon prospect has some well control from a 1993 well that tested gas from a sand and a chert (think of fractured quartz or flint) but was abandoned. They drilled two wells which encountered hydrocarbons but no flow info means they were non commercial. They were selected using 2d and the addition of 3D data should firm up some potential targets late 2007.
  • They have installed additional compression capacity for future expansion of Pinon gas production and more is on the way by year end.
  • They gather CO2 from the WTO gas and use it for tertiary recovery of oil in older, post water flood fields in West Texas.

What I don't have yet is a few crucial numbers. How many shares are coming at what proposed price. I'll republish this when I get those. For now I'd say very interesting. It's a grower with long-life gassy reserves. It just depends on what kind of multiples to CF and reserves they give it. It appears to be well run, has top talent and the costs and balance sheet look in line. It's got a powerful set of energy savvy bankers behind it which won't hurt either. And it's prospect rich to boot. But I'll get back to you on the numbers when I have them.

Tomorrow: Concho Equity Holdings.

Odds & Ends

Subscription Watch. Emails go out this afternoon for the discount rate offer. If you have not registered with the site you can email me at zmanalpha@gmail.com.

Holdings Watch: The positions tables for open and closed options have been updated.

Hugo Watch: Send Money, Send Lots of Money. In his latest chapter of How Not To Run An Oil Country, Chavez writes, "kick out the stinking Americans and their billions of dollars, replace experienced oil hands running your drilling rigs with fresh faced military recruits, and finally, when all else fails to revive your flagging production levels, slash your rig count by 40%. That'll fix them capitalistas!" Comment: You want to get production up but so does everyone else. Rigs cost money and there is not an endless supply of them. Enticing people to come to your country by partnering with them seems a better way than stealing from the guy who brung ya, then looking for the next innocent face (Hello China, my name is Hugo. I'll be your socialist host for a short time). With the 2007 rig count falling from a projected 191 to a mere 120 we can only expect to see more of this:

vz-prod-2006.jpg

Have a great day everyone! I'll see you in comments.

74 Responses to “Merger Monday”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Stephen on the buy GSF, short RIG I think its much riskier than just taking a long look at ESV and NE and DO. You could get another big day of ups and though it might be better for GSF than RIG (and I’nm not saying it is but it might be) they both could run higher for a bit. For now I wouldn’t touch any of these on the short side. Rates are extraordinary as is demand. They’ll go higher than today’s close I’d bet. I’m watching for now.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Mmmarkkk – I don’t take CERA – or any subscription yet. That’s part of the reason to go pay but not CERA specifically. I do monitor those LNG volumes on a weekly basis as I do volumes from Canada. Helps me to get an idea if the Street is straying on the gas number. You’re absolutely correct about the gas in Europe thing. I understand the closure of CATS has already boosted UK gas significantly which it desperately needed. We’re all one cold winter away from more expensive gas.lol.

  3. 3
    Brian08 Says:

    Z would you play the momentum of the OIH with AUG 200 calls or is the value in those going to be lost after the big pop this morning?

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Question re VQ and GRP. I don’t see VQ as a play here. GRP, yes but not as much as the others I mentioned. Deepwater is what’s so tight. OII, the leader in ROVs could get snapped up plus it’s a great hurricane play.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    Brian08 – Let’s see it open first. Those calls probably double at the open … if you look at the value of the 195s now you can guestimate a $1.85 to $2 open. Let’s see if that Rig downgrade Cody? mentioned will have any impact after the initial pop. Plus I think you’re better off on the $195s but we’ll see.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    If you didn’t have time to read the post I discuss the 3 pillars driving OIH today. One is the merger, two is HAL beating (ha,ha, to Cramer on that call), and three is the big PT upgrades in the sector that are coming including SLB upped from 93 to 118 today.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    This was posted by Mmarkkk on the weekly wrap just now. I’m reposting here b/c I agree with every last scrap of it!

    1st well on at Independence Hub is producing 50 MMCF/day, with 14 more wells to follow!! Without severe heat and/or threat of a storm, I can’t see NG staying near $7 for a while. Look for some short term supply/demand/storage gyrations. But if you see a five in the price to the left of the decimal point, it’s probably time to start buying ‘cuz rigs will be shut down.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    WNR getting hurt, and SUNH popping up b//c of a neutral initiation? That’s tempting.

    EOG getting hit hard by the Citi downgrade to sell. That’s a stupid rating for these guys. Down $2 and very tempting for some $70 Aug calls. I’m watching gas closely though and will keep my powder dry for a little later.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    My NBR put is working fine. Wrong side of the OIH coin. Admisdst all this rally, NBR up a whoppping $0.13. Ha. They’re diversified geographically but highly depended on Canada,like BHI who warned there last week.

  10. 10
    Brian08 Says:

    Whoopsie Z, you mean down $0.45 :)…With the RIG/GSF merger I thought the NBR position might be in trouble…Guess not!!

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    WNR down $2, FTO down $0.75 !!!

    NBR down yes, it’s natural gas at $6.10. Even taking a bite out my HAL which may rebound soon if you’re not in yet on those calls. I like the $37.50s and wouldn’t stretch much for the $40s at this juncture even though I think they’ll make, the stock is highly dependent on the N. American natural gas market. If gas knifes through $6 this stock goes to $35. So you’re warned but honestly, I think gas bottoms and HAL goes higher now.

  12. 12
    codydog Says:

    z–bit much if the world thinks crude goes to 100, but NG goes to 5. at some point, even the most idiotic mgmts will switch energy consumption to NG from crude.

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    FTO chart looks like its about to break down.

    WNR looks like $5 more bucks to its 50 day and is breaking that direction.

    TSO has broken.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    TRADE: EOG AUG $70 Calls for $4.20. Scaling in as always. I’ll only add if gas holds $6, or about 38.75 on the UNG

    TRADE: NFX $50 calls.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Cooling degree days rang in at only 72 for last last week, CPC had expected 81.

    That’ll very likely drive us to RECORD gas storage this week.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    which means #14 above was probably premature but I scale into these and like both bigger so I’ll buy more when lower.

  17. 17
    ifaben Says:

    Z-Do you see NFX holding at current lows?

  18. 18
    codydog Says:

    Transocean: RIG/GSF says on call it will take 1-2 years to fully integrate the two co’s

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    NFX – maybe as a low as $47 but I think it holds better than that.

    EOG – needs to hold $71.40 level which pretty good support.

  20. 20
    zman Says:

    WNR – the urge to add here is incredible. What’s got this up on a down $1 day in oil and $0.05 in gasoline.

  21. 21
    codydog Says:

    z–you on the HAL call?

  22. 22
    Brian08 Says:

    Z, I couldn’t resist that urge…Seemed to sweet to ignore at $2.20…Scaled in a little more…

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Brian – what did you grab

    Cody – I’ll have some notes out after lunch

    Regarding Nicky’s comments: Don’t doubt her, boys! EOG held support nicely. Still iffy with gas.

    The rebound in refiners is unfounded.

    HAL and OII looking to be firming up a bit here.

  24. 24
    codydog Says:

    for the paranoid war mongers –

    US Air Force B-2 Stealth bombers will soon be fitted with newly-developed 15-tonne Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs

  25. 25
    codydog Says:

    from briefing.com

    Halliburton: Conf call summary

    Co has been experiencing a good recovery from the frac market slowdown this past winter. They are expecting activity levels in equipment utilization rates to continue to increase throughout the rest of this year, as their customers work toward achieving their 2007 production goals. They’ve seen a slight deterioration in pricing, less than 5% in the first half of this year, and this could continue during the second half of the year. Their expectation is that activities will remain high for the balance of the year. They remain very bullish on their ability to grow Eastern Hemisphere operations for the balance of this year and throughout the rest of the decade. Co will continue to take advantage of low valuation to buyback shares aggressively. Co says the large contract win that they had last year in Norway is progressing well, and the customers beginning to award the co new work outside of that contract. Co says the realtime operation center established earlier this month in Saudi is providing a “significant contribution” to their overall performance. They now believe the project will reach its peak during 1Q08. On Q&A, co said there clearly is price competition in the frac market in the US, and what they have seen so far this year. But they do expect that there will be continued price pressure in the second half.

  26. 26
    Brian08 Says:

    Z – I added to my AUG 55 position at $2.20 (can’t believe I got filled)…Like I said although I’m still a noob at this options stuff the fact that WNR, HOC, etc. are that rich in valuation compared to VLO makes ZERO sense to me…That’s why I really like this trade…

  27. 27
    scoop006 Says:

    Any thoughts about XTO at $59.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Thanks Cody – nice review. Got busy here so thanks again. Cramer = Egg on Face.

    Brian – Nice

    Nicky – agreed re crude, I think RBOB needs to hold $2.10 at the close or else.

    Interesting action in SUN this morning. Missed my trade but it worked like I thought from up $2 at the open and for a good while thereafter stock is now down. TSO seen as flight to safety, getting more than it’s fair share out of the VLO rating today but as I write in the next alwaysanoption newsletter, TSO is the refining long play if a storm does significant damage along the gulf coast (or even threatens to).

    Scoop – I would have liked it better if it hadn’t violated support and its 50d sma all at one but it is rebounding nicely now. Just can’t tell if the E&P moves are headfakes (EOG) included right now. Chances are gas test $6 very soon and if Thu8rsday is som 80+ Bcf number, lookout. I’m treading very carefully right not in E&P gassy stock land. I’m a little more comfy with NFX here as I think they’ll have a great cc.

  29. 29
    T-Tupp Says:

    z – whats the word on the HO and RBOB ETF’s?

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Tupp – I checked with an ETF specialist when I last mentioned them, last week or was it the week before. Anyway, he said your guess is as good as mine. He wrote about them coming back in March/April and there’s still no word.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    UNG/Nat gas looking pretty pathetic now. Going to need some heat/storm news soon.

  32. 32
    jimbo Says:

    More for the paranoid war mongers. The Enterprise is steaming to join the Stennis and Nimitz. Obstensibly as a replacement. The Truman will arrive this fall. The number of carriers in the gulf should indicate potential for adventure. Two: no. Three: maybe. Four: probably. Just my take.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    UNG collapsing.

    OII hitting HOD after a weak start.

    warmongers = fodder for the perma-bulls. still, stranger things have happened…

    Nat gas just bounced off $6

  34. 34
    p.wilmington Says:

    From Barron’s Online:

    Don’t Fall for the Drop in Refiners
    Bear Stearns & Co.

    WE MAINTAIN OUR MARKET UNDERWEIGHT sector rating on the independent refiners.

    We forecast downside in refining margins, and we see near-term downside of 20% to 30% in the stock prices of the independent refiners. In the last week, refined product prices moved sharply lower, and we have received numerous calls from investors wondering if this decline marks the beginning of a major downward move. It may be the beginning, but the major catalysts have yet to come.

    The catalysts that we believe are necessary for a sustained downward move include removal of the weather (hurricane) threat, softening demand, or surplus of refined product supplies. The weather and demand catalysts are seasonal factors, and it is only a matter of time. But the pullback appears premature on this basis, and lower product prices may merely set the stage for continued price volatility based on continued supply concerns. The near-term wildcard is supply. Refinery utilization and import levels will be important influences on the supply picture in the coming weeks.

    We continue to believe that fundamental conditions for refined products are not as strong as prices suggest. We also believe stock prices for the independent refiners have risen to levels that reflect unsustainably high refining margins.

    We maintain our Underperform ratings on Valero Energy, Frontier Oil, and Western Refining; and our Peer Perform ratings on Tesoro and Sunoco.

    The decline in refining margins in the past week was driven primarily by a pullback in gasoline prices. However, prices were supported by a bullish inventory report on Wednesday of this week, which added 9.3 cents per gallon back to the price of gasoline, and 7.2 cents per gallon to the distillate price.

    U.S. gasoline inventories have been rising at an unusual pace, up 1.8 million barrels since the end of May. In the last five years, gasoline inventories have fallen by an average 500,000 barrels during the same time period. The builds have helped to quell fears of supply shortages this summer. In the past week, some of the refinery outages that had reduced refined product production were expected to be resolved, causing some market participants to expect an increase in supplies. As of last week, gasoline inventories in the U.S. were just 2% below normal for this time of year, though this week’s inventory report lowered the gap to 3.5%.

    In the year-to-date through mid-May, stock prices for the independent refiners had risen by 42%, reflecting the strengthening in refining margins during the spring maintenance period. Since reaching their peak in mid-May, nationwide refining margins have fallen by an estimated 28%, according to our proxies (through July 13; this only partially reflects the pullback of the past week).

    However, the stock prices for the independent refiners have continued to rise, up by an additional 8% since May 17. The strongest performers have been Western Refining and Frontier Oil, whose shares are up 57% and 25%, respectively.

    Western has outperformed the group, in part, due to unplanned outages in its operating region resulting from the fire at Valero’s McKee, Texas, plant, which strengthened margins in Western’s operating region significantly. Western’s shares also benefited from the favorable impact of the completion of the acquisition of Giant Industries on May 31, increasing its leverage to the high-margin environment.

    Frontier Oil’s shares have appreciated by 25%, since nationwide margins peaked in mid-May. From a refining-margin standpoint, we believe Frontier has been the largest beneficiary of unplanned outages, within the independent refining universe. As a result of outages at Valero’s McKee and Ardmore, Okla., refineries, BP’s Whiting, Ind., and Toledo, Ohio, refineries, and more recently the Coffeyville, Kan., refinery, mid-continent crack spreads have been the most volatile in the nation.

    However, when nationwide refining margins peaked in mid-May, Midwest margins remained resilient. Performances for Valero, Sunoco, and Tesoro have been more subdued since mid-May.

  35. 35
    Joe Says:

    Z et al – anyone going short BP before earnings announcement? They tend to always miss projections; what is the word on the street.

    FYI…I work for BP

  36. 36
    codydog Says:

    nicky–as an admin question, if a producer sold short (which was actually selling production) last year into the amaranth generated run-up and if they want to deliver NG, but the system cant take the additional product, what happens? do they collect interest on the money they should have rec’d? or does the system go on hold until the NG is actually delivered?

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    P – thanks for that piece. The BS refining guy is not the best among the analyst crowd but I appreciate his sentiments regarding the commodities. I think his comments about the stocks are pretty middle of the road and disagree whole heartedly of his negative view on VLO relative to some other names.

    Joe – not playing but isn’t that sacrilege? LOL.

  38. 38
    codydog Says:

    joe–where in bp do you work? depending upon your answer, you may well be putting yourself and Z in legal jeopardy

  39. 39
    codydog Says:

    z–is it a big deal about EGN’s comment today on their NG hedge prices?

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Cody – been around the Street a long time. Believe me when I say he’s not putting me in any legal jeopardy.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Cody – what was EGN’s comment?

  42. 42
    codydog Says:

    true, it was more for his sake.

  43. 43
    codydog Says:

    Energen Corp. (EGN) said Monday it has added to the 2008 hedge position of its oil and gas subsidiary, Energen Resources Corp. The Birmingham, Ala.-based company said it has sold contracts for an additional 7.2 billion cubic feet of the unit’s 2008 natural gas production at a NYMEX-equivalent price of $8.53 per thousand cubic feet. The company also said it has added 24.2 million gallons of natural gas liquids hedges at a price of 94 cents a gallon. The latest hedges bring Energen Resources’ total natural gas hedge position in 2008 to 21.6 Bcf, or 33% of its estimated natural gas production of 64.8 Bcf, at a NYMEX-equivalent price of $8.78 per Mcf, Energen said. The company said its total NGL hedge position for 2008 is now 41.3 million gallons, or 65% of its estimated 2008 NGL production of 63.8 million gallons, at an average price of 93 cents a gallon. -Katherine Hunt; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    Cody – re EGN – those are some nice fatly priced NGL hedges. The nat gas hedges are good too but a lot of people hedge quite a bit more (% wise) than that. It’s definitely not bad news and they leave upside for storms etc…although many of the bigger E&Ps are using costly collars which gives them both downside protection and upside room to run in case prices go crazy. Just my thoughts.

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    z called away – back at 3:00

  46. 46
    Marie Says:

    is TSO put still in play?

  47. 47
    Joe Says:

    codydog – engineer in North American asset. I don’t have access to financial records and/or potential earnings.

    I can play BP just like everyone else.

  48. 48
    Brian08 Says:

    Boy baffled by TSO and WNR…Am I wrong in saying that their charts don’t look all that good? I wish all stocks I owned went up 1-2% with a brokerage downgrade or neutral rating…

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Marie – yes. I took a little late last week again. I think when RBOB finally gives up the ghost they got to $50.

    Brian08 – baffled indeed.

  50. 50
    codydog Says:

    Brian–which indicators are you looking at? TSO looks indecisive to me, WNR has very positive OBV, low RSI and its beginning to look like the stochs may turn up, so I’d guess its in better shape

  51. 51
    Brian08 Says:

    Z are you taking a “defensive” wait-and-see attitude with those guys?? I added to WNR earlier, but they actually have me frozen on adding more to that position and the TSO position…

  52. 52
    jonnynav Says:

    I suppose it might be time to purchase some HAL puts?

  53. 53
    scoop006 Says:

    Time to sell HAL?

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Joe,

    Were you Amoco or Vastar or are you newer than that or a transplant?

  55. 55
    Marie Says:

    tks Z, UBS started it at neutral and I was afraid to buy the put.

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    I’m not negative on HAL with a fwd pe of 13 vs someone like SLB with a fwd x of 19x.

    It may see a little retracement but I’ll use it to add for the day gas starts to recover.

    To be clear I’m negative on the smaller refiners (HOC, WNR, FTO) and it’s more of a declining fundamental / valuation picture than it is technical. I’m bearish on TSO but only to a technical point of $50 on TSO and then I think they’ll rally, and I like VLO long here.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Marie,

    they’re acting oddly, I think a pump to create space for a sell down. Notice they’re (the refiners) are selling off into the closes several of the last few sessions. That says to me old money is convincing new money to like the sector, “come on boy, you missed it but here’s your chance…here, take my shares”

    Tread carefully as we need to see RBOB break down and the perma bulls are still pulling out the end of the world oil stories and trying to jack oil with fear.

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    All in all, while I could be happier with the price action today I’m not altogether displeased.

    HAL – Cramer proves again that 50/50 odds on a call are a bad bet.

    NRB puts fine even as offshore drilling M&A activity sends the OIH soaring

    Refiners – more brokers agree with me and the stocks can’t hold gains into the close.

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    Check out WNR diving into the close.
    Still surprised to see VLO so weak.

    Refiners report next week so this could get a lot uglier before they can report some big YoY and QoQ #s.

  60. 60
    Brian08 Says:

    Good to see the breakdown…

    You mean uglier for them or us??? haha

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Brian, it wouldn’t “ha,ha” if it were ugly for us. 😉

  62. 62
    Brian08 Says:

    Amen to that one Z! Only a small blip in the radar…A day like this only goes to show the importance of having a thesis when you are trading…If you don’t have that, a day like this will CERTAINLY make you panic and make some stupid, rash decision(s)…

  63. 63
    Stephen Says:

    My long GSF, short RIG idea was pretty much the stupidest idea ever.

    At the close RIG is 115.96 with 33.03 in cash and with 0.6996 of a new RIG share, this values the new RIG stock at (115.96 – 33.03)/0.6996 = 118.54.

    At the close GSF is 78.33 with 22.46 in cash and with 0.4757 of a new RIG share, this values the new RIG stock at (78.33-22.46)/0.4757 = 117.45.

    The 1Q EPS for the new stock, GSF’s 1Q income was $341.7MM, RIG’s 1Q income was $553MM. RIG has 302MM shares, GSF 233.67 MM shares, there will be 302*0.6996 + 233.67*0.4757 = 322MM new RIG shares, therefore the 1Q EPS of the new RIG share is $894.7MM/322MM = $2.78, this means the new stock is trading at an approx. 2007 multiple of $118/(2.78*4) = 10.61 times, although they will have to finance their new $15B debt.

    The multiple is cheaper than some of the mixed shallow and deep offshore drillers NE (15.19), ESV (11.75) and RDC (14.77), while DO (19.79) is pure deepwater.

    I might just hold on to my shares of RIG, although I think a RIG/DO merger would have been more formidable, it might have encountered anti-trust issues.

  64. 64
    Joe Says:

    Z – hired in with Amoco; BP’s “merger” took place about 6 months later.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Joe – glad to have you around these parts! Feel free to check me if I ever say something stupid.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    The subscription offer has been emailed to those of you who registered with the site and/or expressed an interest via email.

  67. 67
    DrT Says:

    Hey, I registered and didn’t get an email!

  68. 68
    Chlte622 Says:

    No subscription email here either!

  69. 69
    Brian08 Says:

    Hey Cody– Just looking at the MCAD…Am I reading this wrong?? There seems to be a HUGE divergence in both TSO and WNR…

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    Chlte66 – I know I sent you one. Everybody check you bulk mail. Maybe it’s blocking zman mails.

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    Chlte66 – I just sent it directly to you and you alone. Please let me know if you receive it.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    By the way, whoever asked for Concho Equity holdings, I can’t help ya. They’ve got no SEC filings to date.

  73. 73
    WjSiUhJr Says:
  74. 74
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