17
Jul

Tuesday – Rebound? Nahhhh

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Oil. Lofty, Lofty Oil. First it was terror that made you rise. Then, when we were no longer as fearful, gasoline took the lead and drove you higher. But gasoline production rose via crafty means and gasoline prices started to come back to reality. And still you remain there suspended like a clay pigeon at the top of the arc. But your 12 month strip looks, well, sort of like disbelief is setting in. And even Brent, you're other source of support is looking like it needs a breather.

What A Difference A Month Makes. Heck, What A Difference Three Days Makes! One month ago the 12 month strip exhibited a nice contango. Buy it, store it, sell it a little for more. But for some reason beyond the grasp of mortal media weather girls and unbiased analytical talent, that easy money trade went the way of the dodo and wa-la, backwardation.

crude-strips-071607.jpg

Furthermore, while August and September rose $0.22 and a dime respectively yesterday, October and beyond fell, in some cases as much as a buck. Granted those moves were not on significant volume but the opposing direction to the front month and the size of the moves smell like trader nervousness.

And Finally: Perma Bull? Watch: This Can't Be! From Alaron's All Star:

  • With regard to crude: “Looks like the sentiment is turning a little bit sour,”
  • and with regard to gasoline: “It’s possible that we have peaked out for the season,”
  • Comment: Well at least (GS) still believes in oil, now touting, and I do mean touting, a $95 number. Nicki pulled a quote yesterday that sums this up to a tee:

...last time they came out with such a high profile target (the $105 WTI ’super-spike’) was March 2005 when WTI was around $58; this marked a near term high point in crude (with GS desperate to talk WTI up to unwind an arb that had gone hugely negative - sound familiar?) and within two months crude was close 20% lower. ~ anonymous but clever oil trader

RBOB vs WTI - I posted this chart on the weekend to show the divergence between August RBO and Crude. Today's action: last verse same as the first. RBOB got popped as (XOM) announced it restarted it's massive Baytown refiner hydrocracker which had been offline since June 23. BP and VLO also joined the restart party announcing a facility apiece restarted over the weekend.

oil-vs-gas-071607.jpg

This trend will put a crimp in the habit the refining analysts have developed of late of marking estimates to cracks on a weekly basis. Or at least it may cause them to mark them down as fast as they marked them up.

Fun With Crack Spreads. The following graph depicts mid month standard 3-2-1 crack spreads from Spring until present for last year and 2007. Just to give you an idea of what a crack spread built out of NYMEX priced crude, RBOB, and heating oil would look like for purely educational purposes. Specifically notice the impact the recent run in crude and slide in gasoline has the spread. That's not a typo.

321-crack-071607.jpg

Natural Gas Got Whacked Yesterday; It'll Be Bumpy But I Think We Test $6 Soon. August gas fell $0.28 to $6.37 (right back to support). Heat in the west but not the east and a dearth of tropical activity are to blame (along with the swollen inventories).

  • LNG Imports Continue To Run Strong. Last week saw sendout volumes of 2.8 Bcfgpd, down slightly from the prior week but still up nearly a B from year ago levels. Below $6 and I think other markets start to look much more attractive to many tankers headed this way.
  • Canadian Imports Continue To Dwindle. Down 0.4 Bcfgpd from the prior week and a whopping 1.3 Bcfgpd from year ago levels. Still many authorities on imports had predicted a more dire swoon from Canada as the second chart below demonstrates, high prices still mean something to sellers north of the border.
  • Combined Gross Imports Are Off 0.4 Bcfgpd Vs Year Ago Levels. In the big scheme of things this isn't a big variance and just last week we were importing 0.4 Bcfgpd more than in the prior year (on a gross basis).

Energy Intel Says Natural Gas In Storage May Hit Record This Summer. Their report says that barring any weather related snags we should hit record levels.

Of Course They Also Said This Yesterday Morning:

After a couple of weeks of NYMEX August gas futures prices oscillating in the $6 range, it appears the fundamentals are beginning to shift more toward the bullish side of the spectrum. Summer heat is finally making its debut, and with the resulting cooling demand load increases, prices appear slated to go back toward the $7 area. (Monday, July 16, 2007). Comment: Hmmm. I think they're early. Kind of interesting to write one report saying we'll hit all time highs in gas and another that says, "hey buy some gas, things are bullish!"

Stocks Of Interest Watch:

  • (HK) keeps getting hit with gas. Frankly I think it's a bit overdone here but as I think natural gas could take another leg down to $6 soon (or even $5.75 if we don't get sustained summer like heat) I don't see the need to add to positions now. This is a medium term play and I want to make sure I'm in for earnings on the
  • (HAL) continues to hold up in the face of negative group action rebounding at every modest turn. I may trade some of the dips as its pretty evident the company is behind the rallies.
  • (TSO) - that delicious double top, a Tupp trademark, is looking more and more solid each day. Support is $57.50 (current level) and this morning's early trading is threatening to violate another round number milestone at $57. We continue to hold $60 and $57.50 strike puts here and today I'll very likely roll the July dated ones to August or even September.
  • (WNR) - Coverage resumed with a sell rating at Deutsche Securities and a $48 price target, a 25% drop from current levels of $64. That's just unfriendly. Guess who won't be getting a Christmas card this year (or a piece of any future deals here).  On the other theres a sellside guy with guts who I agree whole heartedly with as the 151% rally year to date seems pretty hard to justify. Even that $48 target puts the stock at a 7 month double which is a head scratcher.

Holdings Watch:

CALLS: No Action.

PUTS:

  • (FTO) - Bought August $45s for $1.20. I can't remember the last time this one closed lower, let alone down over a buck. At 14x consensus '08 EPS (vs VLO at 10x) and having made a 64% run year to date, assumedly on buyout rumors, that's one I feel has run too far too fast. When you look at earnings expectations that are expected to rise only 14% in 2007 to $3.97 over 2006's $3.47 and then to fall back by 17% in 2008 to $3.28 the move seems very exaggerated. Unless the acquiring CEO uses cash, and why would he with his own bloated share price to use as currency, it's pretty tough to do an accretive deal on 2008 numbers despite the fact that everyone's numbers are going to take a hit in 2008 (as they stand now). Last bid $1.30.
  • (SWN) - Sold half out of my position taken with seconds of the gas storage report last Thursday. Gas may be in for further damage but I hate shorting good companies for anything more than a trade. Sold at $2.00 for a 3 day 74% gain.

STOCKS: No Action.

Odds & Ends

UK Gas Prices Jumping - Prices increased as gas from CATS was restricted. Good news for little (END) and other North Sea gas producers (unless of course you're one of those who can't get to market).

Analyst Watch: (BTU) cut to neutral at HSBC, (CRZO) cut to hold at Jefferies in what is most likely a valuation call pre earnings,

BP Doulbing Solar Division Capacity. Watch out for margin compression in the recently high flying solar arena.

116 Responses to “Tuesday – Rebound? Nahhhh”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    WTI up $0.70 pre market on remarks made by Iran’s oil minister re-affirming OPEC’s general sentiment that, “it’s refining capacity stupid!”

    Brent is unmoved. I’m not buying this artificial lift program to get front month to headline grabbing $75 per barrel.

  2. 2
    T-Tupp Says:

    all the refiners IV’s are becoming extremely expensive! careful with OTM purchases boys and girls

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    TDW ok’s $200 MM buyback.

  4. 4
    scoop006 Says:

    Z- Do you think WNRUK @ $2. is a value buy or should I look elsewhere?

  5. 5
    codydog Says:

    http://energy.seekingalpha.com/article/41288?source=feed

  6. 6
    bill fraser Says:

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070716/sector_glance_oil_tankers.html?.v=1

    stay away from tanker stocks

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Scoop – that or the August $60s. There’s no certainty they’ll get popped but I think it gets more likely.

  8. 8
    codydog Says:

    z–hightower suggesting longs get insurance versus a $2-$3 drop this week in crude, but still expect the exiting longs from rbob to enter HO shortly

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    Cody – I think he’s mistaken but thanks.

    Bill – seems logical, wait for the Fall (intentional double entendre)

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    Cody – I was referring to Kingston; agree with Hightower on the drop but why they go heat, except seasonal shift is beyond me at these prices.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    UNG diving for the deck.

    Oil still playing the Iran card today.

    HAL on the launch pad.

    TSO toying with breaking $57.
    FTO – whatever.
    WNR – selling off from that slap in the face rating resumption. Take care of your money buying in there. As Tupp said, IVs are bloated.

  12. 12
    codydog Says:

    z–in the last 2 years there is always a big hoopla that demand will out-strip supply, driven by scary, scary headlines. Then suddenly halfway thru the season, supply is there but retail is locked into high priced programs to buy HO.

  13. 13
    T-Tupp Says:

    scoop – that contract is $8 otm! thats a huge move to make money, esp since the implied volatility is way over its 52 wk high. plus the delta is almost non-existent (20).

  14. 14
    bill fraser Says:

    >Energy Intel Says Natural Gas In Storage May Hit Record This Summer. Their report says that barring any weather related snags we should hit record levels

    I used the wrong word yesterday. NG is in contango condition. Contango encourages inventory builds to sell later on.

    So, as you pointed out today, regarding Crude, “easy money was made” while in contango

    so looking out can easy money be made by being long ng because of contango

  15. 15
    Brian08 Says:

    If Nat Gas is going to be in record storage levels (wouldn’t surprise me, as we’ve had a very mild summer here in the NE) would it be wise to sell to close options contracts on CHK and buy them back when we get the bloated Nat Gas numbers?

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Bill – I another report the same day the EI guys say the fundamentals for natural gas have gotten more bullish and it’s time for gas to rally to $7. They cite increasing summer heat fostering cooling load but I guess the whole “record storage” thing was written by one of their other minions. Go figure.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Brian – I’d be careful doing it around earnings season and I’d pick another name. CHK is pretty premier and inexpensive to it s peers. They’ll probably have some oohhh-aaahhh stuff on the 2Q conf call about their recent deal with APC. But I like what your thinking. Just need another name. Maybe BBG.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Did you see that HAL dip. They come into any time it drops a $0.15 to $0.20 with pretty good volume.

    USO / OIL makes no sense here as the out months are telling you.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    TSO WNR HOC FTO all down on an up oil and RBOB day.

    Oil @ $75 EVEN (exactly where it had to go) and gasoline rebounding a mere penny.

  20. 20
    T-Tupp Says:

    z- say we had a hurricane headed for the gulf coast and or a huge heat wave throughout the entire country, is their two separate names to play this or will the entire NG complex rally?

  21. 21
    Brian08 Says:

    Z- Thanks for the response…See that’s why I don’t really mind holding CHK…I absolutely love what Aubrey has done with this company…I have only been at this game for about 7 years and CHK is by far the best company as far as expanding assets that I have ever owned…I’ve always wondered why they weren’t a bit more of a high flyer (really only time was around post-Katrina)…

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Tupp – COP would actually be good because you get the refiner fear and they have Rockies natural gas which wouldn’t be threatened but would be sold at higher prices than usual. The NG complex would rally although if it came through like Katrina some people could really get hurt, like NFX, SGY and others last go round.

    Brian – I think the Street goes for the sexier small plays and Aubrey drives a hard bargain with them on deals. They don’t carry the multiple I’d expect either.

  23. 23
    Joe Says:

    Z – I’m sure you are tired of the question, you going short on WNR? I did yesterday. In your opinion, how low can it go in the short term?

    The downgrade was definitely helpful.

  24. 24
    p.wilmington Says:

    Looking at the TSO chart, I find it hard to find a real support level after it’s gone through $57. Maybe $55 and 50, but only because they are nice easy numbers, not because past action has shown real buying support at those levels.

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Joe,

    No, I was busy typing. I’m pretty size short refining between FTO and TSO and they’re playing as well.

    On WNR, I’d think at least $5 more downside in the next week or two but that’s highly dependent on oil and products. It would still be expensive both historically and to its peers at that level.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    P – Honestly, if I were long now I’d be worried that chart gets ginsued to $50!

  27. 27
    p.wilmington Says:

    Z – No worries, I’m short TSO, just trying to decide when to cover. From reading the chart, I’m in no rush.

  28. 28
    codydog Says:

    z–what do you consider a size position?

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    P – of course, bad numbers tomorrow, and you never know, could reverse today’s losses in a heart beat. Just food for thought.

    I haven’t seen expectations yet but they take on a little more importance after the stocks and RBOB have made these moves.

    HAL’s resilience is unreal.

  30. 30
    bill fraser Says:

    Thomson just downgraded ioc to a sell

    what do you think, i own some

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    Cody – it generally occurs when I’m in multiple sets of contracts on an issue. It also depends on the issue and it’s liquidity. More than 50 would be size.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Thomson Financial, the earning estimate guys? There’s no news on the big well but any rating rest on that. I’d guess they think they know something OR think that too much time has passed since the last drilling report. I’m out as you know and waiting on the news b/c I think it’s a pure gamble right now.

  33. 33
    codydog Says:

    http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8QED1V00&show_article=1

    US ready for direct talks with Iran……..is this the straw that cracks energy?

  34. 34
    MMarkkk Says:

    Z – part of the problem with CHK’s “street cred” is the prices they’ve paid for their growth. Over the years, Aubrey has built quite a portfolio but also quite a reputation for severely overpaying for his assets. In many cases, double what others have paid. As long as the price curve is moving in the right direction and he keeps mastering the hedge game, CHK will continue to be a top flight company. however, his cost per barrel to acquire is very high and that will earn them a lower P/E. And, Wall Street and many individual investors don’t have a clue on how to interpret marked-to-market financial losses on the hedge contracts. They see these “paper losses” as somehow being real, when in fact they are mostly positives.

    I’m long the boys from Okie City, particularly as they are now supposedly out of the acquisition business and into the drilling/development business.

  35. 35
    Brian08 Says:

    M- That’s what I heard about their last acquisition in the Apps, is that they overpaid…While they might have overpaid, I think that some of their cache comes from the fact that the good majority of their assets are “safe” (ie. not tied to the Gulf)…God forbid another major hurricane struck the Gulf region, I think that could be a huge boon for CHK due to the location of their asset base…

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Mark – his all in F&D is a bit high. Point taken.

    On the hedges. It astounds me quarter after quarter why people bring up non-cash gains/losses.

    Any thoughts on that deal with APC, same as area as APC/CVX last summer. CHK bring something to the table that APC doesn’t have technically? That seems unlikely.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    UNG looking terrible…again. SWN giving you yet another chance at puts. I sold have my position for $2 yesterday and I could buy them back for a buck today.

  38. 38
    SLM Says:

    Interesting infor on BQI

    http://energy.seekingalpha.com/article/41077

  39. 39
    codydog Says:

    z–looking at UNG options which seem to be pricing mechanically, if at all. have you traded them?

  40. 40
    codydog Says:

    zman–I like your service but not really digging this format for data presentation/exchange. Would you consider using software from tradingrooms.com once you are private? Its very flexible, very user friendly

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Cody – not yet but I’m considering that as a long vehicle once we’re back to $6.

    I’ll check it out. What do you not like?

  42. 42
    codydog Says:

    1. the constant refreshing – having to replicate your charts

    2. with that program I mentioned, you can throw up a whiteboard for your comments, explantaions, charts etc, its worth a look

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    Cody – I’ll definitely take a look and talk to my back office people.

    You can refresh comments with the F5 key. Or subscribe to comments via RSS.

    When you say replicate charts I’m not sure I follow you. Is it any different on the zman tab at PSW for the charts?

  44. 44
    MMarkkk Says:

    You would be surpised at the geologic/geophysic talent CHK has accumalated. They bring a lots of brain power and creativity to the table. Plus, you can spread risks across many plays by cutting in others.

    Others would tell you the only time you sell part of something that is supposed to be “big” is when you know more about the downside than others. Who knows!!

  45. 45
    scoop006 Says:

    T-Tupp Thanks for post # 13. You were absolutely correct. The right play was suggested by Z: Aug.$60P’s. Opened @ $2.40 nice 50% profit. I appreciate your input.

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Nicky – you around? What gives WTI – up a buck! What blew up?!?!

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Mark – I’m a big fan of Hackett. I don’t think he’d do that deal with an eye towards sand bagging CHK. Maybe I’m a schlub but I think that would be way out of character for him. More likely what you said. I didn’t realize CHK outpaced APC to that extent on the G&G.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    NFX received approval to sell its GOM shelf properties to MMR. Now let’s punt Bohai and the North Sea and get to $60!

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    USO weakening

    UNG weaker.

    Looking at the NFX September 50s but since I didn’t follow my own playbook from the 2nd AAO newsletter I’ll probably wait out inventories.

  50. 50
    zman Says:

    Major intra day sell off in oil. This may be what we’ve been waiting for. Big ups in the morning followed by a knockdown reversal. Look for a big day to the downside in refiners and the majors (take your pick here P and Co.)

    SU probably gets clocked

  51. 51
    codydog Says:

    zman–I meant intra-day charts, eg, I have a set of charts here mostly with positions on, and when you toss out ideas, I switch charts etc etc…..with a whiteboard, you could put out your idea, with the supporting chart and we’d all see it in real-time, negating the need to re-create it. Its a nifty way for your clients to have a bunch of extra charts up easily and for you to explain your ideas quickly and if someone missed something, they can pull up the whiteboard and see what was said

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Cody – OOOOhhhhhhhh! I will definitely ask about that.

    Oil getting scragged now. Did you see my title this morning? How ’bout that!

  53. 53
    sane Says:

    Hey Z,

    funny you mentioned BP solar division today. It looks like I am going to get a set of BP solar panels for my garage.

    Sane

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Sane – how do they compare: price, tech vs the competition?

    FTO @ LOD. Ditto TSO.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    I’m wondering how a doubling of capacity at one of the world’s leading energy company’s with immeasurably deep pockets will effect some pretty bloated small caps doing the same thing. 🙂

  56. 56
    Stephen Says:

    Anyone know what is going on with GLBL, it is up alot YTD, but seems to be an agressive move.

  57. 57
    sane Says:

    They are a tad bit more expensive to middle of the road then some of them, but they are well built, have a good warrenty, and do better than most when it comes to climate tollerance ( needed around here ) and they do well when it comes to peak tollerances and voltage.
    Sane

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    GLBL – very busy, good business to be in right now but like you said they’ve had a nice run. After today’s drubbing they’re on the cheap side to ’08 estimates which just keep climbing. Let me know if you need more as it’s been a little while since I worked on it.

    FTO through $46, TSO testing $55.

    My NBR waking up now to the downside again.!

    SWN down now.

  59. 59
    Brian08 Says:

    Z with the NBR, I don’t see anything to support this guy once it breaks $31.55 (200 DMA)…Am I wrong on this assertion?

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Brian – they can always trot out the buyout or LBO rumor on this one but I think it’s a little tired/obvious at this point. Chart looks weak.

    Sane – thanks. How well do they do on the volatage? Can you put it in contrast when you get a chance? tia

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Congrats to Nicky, we’re below $2.10 RBOB.

    The CNBC weathergirl just flubbed here crude comments.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    NBR still sliding. Daily chart looks at least $1 lower from here. R at $30

    SWN – sliding into support about $0.70 below current level, ~ $42.50.

  63. 63
    Lije Says:

    z – nice call on SU. The July 95 Puts would have pulled out nice. 35 mins ago they were down 80 some odd cents and now 6 in the green

  64. 64
    Brian08 Says:

    Z that’s what I was thinking for NBR, around $30 (or a little under)…Thanks for the FTOTIs…I took my 57% and ran today…

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Lije – Thanks and glad to see you’re still around! That one can bite you quick so if you’re in the gains are worth the DT.

    TSO trying to make a stand at $55 with oil tracking tick for tick.

    Watching for the HAL rebound.

    COP getting hit again. That’ll be one to get long when things start getting interesting in the GOM next month but not yet.

    Lower margin refiner SUN getting clipped for 4%. Should be a bigger hit than SUN but everybody’s getting tossed today. WNR and ALJ down 5+%.

    NFX only up $0.33 after a $1.50 morning rally. Calls getting very tempting calls.

    Nice one Brian!

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    TRADE: sold my tiny FTO Aug 45 position at $$1.70 for 42% gain. Didn’t get all I wanted yesterday and I don’t want to much around with 2 lousy contracts!

    Still hold the August $50s there, 69% I may cash out and reload on a bounce.

  67. 67
    MMarkkk Says:

    looks like things are taking a break from the downtrend. do you think its time to close out those SWN puts? I’ve also got some COP puts that are doing great but it may be time to close this one out for a while. What do you think? hold until the afternoon?

  68. 68
    codydog Says:

    z–i just finished selling off my oih puts…do you think there may be a second round of selling or are they done for today?

    nicky, any ideas?

  69. 69
    sane Says:

    Z,

    The panels I am looking at do 24V nominal and 35V peak. They are 160W and they peak at 4.52 Amps. They guy I am buying them through said that one thing you have to look out for when it comes to panels is the peak voltage and how well they do with heat. As the panel heats up it loses voltage which drops your amperage. He said the BP panels do very well in the heat. He said the cheaper brands have a tendancy to have a large drop in voltage in the heat and usually have a poor peak voltage. He also said he has had pretty good results with Shell and Sanyo. He said Sanyo makes a 48V 200W panel.

    Sane

  70. 70
    codydog Says:

    Today 11:12am
    Iran to cut Aug. gasoline imports by at least 14% to below 30M litres/day due to rationing

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    Cody – hard to tell but I don’t think OIH will get as weak as some think. It’s not as homogeneous as some see it and therefore makes a worse short than picking the guys who are vulnerable (like a BHI or a NBR) unless you expect gas and oil to both get crushed significantly and then of course it makes a great short. HAL is cheap and buying itself on the dips and is 10% of the index and BHI, which pre announced a miss is also 10% and I think most of their downside move is done.

  72. 72
    zman Says:

    Thanks Sane, that gives me a good starting point for a little due diligence.

  73. 73
    codydog Says:

    z–excellent info,,thanks….

  74. 74
    codydog Says:

    z–are you open to a layout suggestion from me?

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    Sure – why don’t you email it to me?

  76. 76
    MMarkkk Says:

    Z – any thoughts on #69 above? do you see SWN continuing down this afternoon?

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    Mark – I was just thinking of cashing mine. May hold out til they close NYMEX to get past the almost inevitable pump. I’ll tell you I don’t like being short those kinds of guys for very long at all. Atlantic also looking a little more active now. Looks like a bit of rotation just off Africa which with this market could send you $0.50 higher in flash. Still thinking about it, but when in doubt, sell half.

  78. 78
    Dave Says:

    SLM – re comment 39, BQI looks like a nice spec play if you’re willing to hold for a while.

  79. 79
    zman Says:

    Mark,

    FWIW, that wave on the far right looks to me like it has some spin to it.

    http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/AtlanticAnalysis.aspx?enlarge=true

  80. 80
    MMarkkk Says:

    Z – thanks. sold half a bit earlier but still holding a few of the SWN 45’s Puts and COP 90’s Puts. Took my money off the table plus a bit and now I’m playing with the house money. I’ll watch for a little while longer before closing this out.

    Agree with you on holding these long. I got in the SWN’s at $1.20 and closed some at $1.75 for a quick profit. The COP’s were even more profitable as I got them when COP was over 90.

  81. 81
    zman Says:

    M – Hear ya house money. Way to go. Somebody heard us talking. Looks like some small fund is buying a little SWN now. Lots too big for retail and too late in the day for squawk inspired run. I think I’ll wait them out and see what the afternoon brings.

    You know, that NFX story just keeps shouting: “Company For Sale!” to me. Maybe that’s not the plan but it seems to me that they’re making it more digestible and they were in cheap to the Woodford which could be big for them. Any thoughts?

  82. 82
    MMarkkk Says:

    I think I’ll wait a bit as well.

    As far as NFX goes, I like their story. The last investor presentation had some great plans and outlook. Can’t really say more than that (but please don’t read anything into my ‘no comment’ either!!).

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    M – ty

  84. 84
    codydog Says:

    z & nicky–any reason why options volume in USO is almost non-existant?

  85. 85
    Sambone Says:

    I’m watching the covection in the SW GOMEX. Water temp 85 degrees, low shear.

  86. 86
    Sambone Says:

    Here’s a link for the wave off of Africa.
    http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/listImages.pl?m=prod,a=1,sa=9,pr=RGB,f=1,c=DUST,se=0,n=24,d=1,v=100,pp=0,t=200707162200#controls

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    Cody – that’s not too bad of volume for those. They’re relatively new (April 2007 for options). They’re also usually a bit pricey which can keep people away.

    Sambone: you have the coolest movies! Do you have one for the SW GOM?

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    That was not much of a pump for oil, rbob, or ng.

  89. 89
    DrT Says:

    Looks like another “buy the dips” day in energy. That’s been working a long time. Tomorrow will be interesting. I love Wednesdays.

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    I wonder if that BP announcement has something to do with FSLR, ESRL, JASO, SOLF, SPWR, WFR, STP all down 1 – 6% today.

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    Me too Dr T!

    As for dip buying, I think people are buying with the broader market rally warming their spirits. The logic of buying something because it got more expensive is interesting but it apparently sells well. Some parts of energy (refiners) look to be still dip buying laden but each high looks like a lower high.

  92. 92
    Sambone Says:

    Here ya go
    http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

    Here is where I get my stuff
    http://www.stormjunkie.com/qcklnk.html

  93. 93
    Dave Says:

    Lots of dry, dusty air ahead of that african wave. But, conditions are improving for something to develop eventually.

    http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw/mainTPW.html

  94. 94
    Sambone Says:

    Does anybody have access to “Morgan Keegan” news? I own GBX, which has had a nice run (Short squeeze), but has suddenley reversed after a news item came out from them.

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    Thanks Dave, that looks like a pretty fair sized wave. Adding storm junkie to the weather links above left.

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    Sambone – Possibly, checking.

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    I take it you saw Matrix went to a sell on them yesterday?

  98. 98
    Sambone Says:

    Something off of North Haiti. Go to loop, then zoom in to North Haiti. Shear looks too high 15, so probably nothing. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

  99. 99
    scoop006 Says:

    Anybody here follow Yahoo and have an opinion on the earning report to be released today. TIA

  100. 100
    Sambone Says:

    Saw that yesterday. No this puppy was up today until something came out from Morgan Keegan.

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    Sambone, I’ll let you know if I hear back from a buddy whose a client of theirs. Probably won’t happen until post close.

  102. 102
    zman Says:

    Re North: Haiti – that’s a weird one of 2 colliding. I’d think Haiti itself would play hell with formation.

  103. 103
    zman Says:

    WNR and HOC making new LOD. That makes me a lot happier about the move, had been a little concerned earlier when they had retraced half the move.

    Does Dow sub 14K at the close matter to you broader market types?

    TSO making a run on $55

  104. 104
    Brian08 Says:

    Nice bit of weakness in NBR at the end, closing below that 200 DMA…Hopefully that portends the slide to the next support level…

  105. 105
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  106. 106
    Sambone Says:

    Looks like we have a spinner at 85/15

  107. 107
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