11
Jul

Wednesday – Gasoline Inventories – Looking for Another Build

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Looking for another build is my title but the real question is will traders care or is utilization the only number that matters? Last week the numbers were bearish and the commodities soared. Can RBOB continue to run if we get more of the same? Keep reading and tune into MN1.com for the Phil and Zman show at 10:25 EST!

EIA Inventory Report (Bloomberg and Reuters Survey for estimates)

  • Crude Stocks: Expected UP 100,000 Barrels.This could easily be higher given the midwest refining snafus attributable to flooding and unplanned maintenance. Imports, which have been running high, are the swing factor here. If they maintain last week's level of 10.8 million bopd look for a much bigger stocks number.
  • Gasoline Stocks: Expected Up 600,000 to 900,000 Barrels. Last week we handily beat the number (a seemingly bearish event) and RBOB started marching higher and never looked back. Nicky pointed out that yesterday's gain made nine straight days of nothing but up for RBOB (and I'd add data be damned!).

Why the counter intuitive reaction to last week's report? Traders didn't like the "low" utilization number (90% when they say it should be 94 or 95%) and the high imports number (which they say is not sustainable as Europe and points abroad will soon demand that gasoline).

My Reaction. Bahhhh! Production has been climbing and is likely to continue to climb today. Six weeks ago, when those tankers (gasoline and crude for that matter) set sail, crack spreads were still extremely high and they don't just pivot mid Atlantic, especially since the fall in cracks has not been that drastic yet.

How Do We Play It? Depends on the numbers. Here are the levels we'll be looking for: (gasoline stocks and utilization continue to dominate sentiment)

1) Bullish Report: Crude or gasoline draw obviously; gasoline lower than the 600,000 build with a crude build; utilization south of 90%.

How we'll be play: Calls on (VLO), (TSO), and (MRO) amonst the refiners / mini-majors. Which will depend on what they do pre report. I like (EOG) and or (APA) long in the event of a crude draw but (XOM) will work as well for a quick trade.

2) Bearish Report: Bigger than expected build in gasoline. Since this is likely only with the help of a big imports number the perma-bulls will highly discount its importance. It's like the difference between inflation and core-inflation. Somehow it doesn't count to the crowd that is on the Reuters and Bloomberg speed dials for a zippy comment.

How we'll play it: Much of yesterday's early gains were wiped out by a deteriorating broader market in the afternoon. (TSO) will definitely be on the list of candidates but the number really needs to be definitively bearish (ie not a big build couple with a < 90% utilization) or I'll my chips back. If oil stocks rise another 1 mm bls (which would put us at 14 year highs in the U.S.), (SU) makes the short list as it's giant rally since March has far outpaced the benefits of a rally in oil, higher wages, and a drop in natural gas costs (with natural gas apparently finding its summer legs now).

Obviously there's often a "split decision" and if that's the case we'll sort it out and wait through the headfake as always. We're very light on refining related puts at this point and I've said I like cheap, well run industry leader (VLO) long here as a counterbalance to my small and getting smaller (TSO) and (FTO) put positions.

Holdings Watch:

CALLS

  • (CHK) bought January 2008 $37.50s for $2.30.
  • (HAL) bought July $35.00s for $0.80.

PUTS: No Action

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: RBC cut several of the big oil service companies from buy to hold and early indications are showing the OIH down about 1% with nearly across the board selling.

CVX 2Q Update. In a nutshell: Strong. Upstream enjoying sequentially higher crude realizations and seq. and YoY higher natural gas prices. In the U.S., volumes look strong. Also as expected, refining margins look strong both sequentially and YoY. What may have not been so apparent is a marked increase in marketing margins in all regions save Europe where apparently cars run on rainbows now. Of note, U.S. refinery output is up year over year for 2Q which may shock some of the perma-bulls mentioned earlier.

EIA Sees Falling Inventories In The Cards: The EIA revised it's number for:

  • 4Q07 worldwide demand up by 200,000 barrels but kept its 3Q 2007 numbers flat and full year 2007 flat with prior estimates at 85.9 mm bopd. Talk about back end loading the number to get there. 2008 numbers were shaved 100,000 bopd to 87.4 mm bopd representing 1.7% growth.
  • EIA revised U.S. demand down by 40,000 bopd to 21.06 million bopd and 4Q down by 100,000 bopd to 20.94 million bopd. 2008 U.S. demand is seen up about 1%.
  • The EIA, as is standard practice now, finished by stating: Opec's second-quarter output points to falling commercial oil inventories, with stocks possibly hitting historically low levels by the end of the year, the EIA said. A clear message to OPEC which will fall on deaf ears.

(OII) Snaps Up Specialty ROV Maker. Adds a tiny amount to revenues and will be accretive to earnings this year.

Continental Resources (CLR) Watch: Announced last night hedges on 42% of planned oil production at $72.90 from August 2007 through April 2008. That equates to about one-third of expected total company production on a BOE basis at very favorable prices. Strong move to more than insure this year's capital program and get a good head start on next year's program. This takes a pretty big piece of risk off the table since they had NO hedges before this. Also, I don't think anybody can cast a stone at a guy whose first hedge as a public company is over $70 per barrel! See my quick note on it here from the day after their IPO.

Iran Watch: As in the U.S. is seriously watching Iran having added a third aircraft carrier to the Fifth Fleet.

Mexico Rebel Watch!? Four explosions, last Thursday, rocked natural gas and crude supply lines in Mexico. No exports were interrupted but a leftist rebel group, the EPR or People's Revolutionary Army, claimed credit for the attacks. The group, active for the last decade in the poorer southern states of Mexico vowed to wage a campaign against "this oligarchy and the interest of this illigitimate government." That happened last Thursday and we only heard about it last night? We get more timely reports (sometimes before they happen) out of Nigeria and it's a lot further away.

Here is a complimentary copy of our second Alwasyanoption newsletter. This will be available for subscription in September but I wanted to put the shale article I published on the site and this was the easiest way. Enjoy.  july071.pdf

101 Responses to “Wednesday – Gasoline Inventories – Looking for Another Build”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    NE, DO, and GSF cut to neutral at Merrill.

  2. 2
    Sambone Says:

    All down premarket

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Tell me Cramer didn’t get a tip. He likes HAL forever and then yesterday afternoon he trashes them and sells out of his charitable trust just before two firms take down their ratings on the service stocks? That’s pretty good timing.

    oil (WTI and Brent) and gasoline looking slightly lower for the open. natural gas rallying again.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    CNBC using most aggressive survey they could find for today’s inventory numbers. 1.8 mm barrel build for gasoline. That’s more than double DJ or Bloomberg. Trying to set the bar high there. What a joke. SThe weathergirl ended by pointing out that even a 0.4% expected rise in utilization would put the number at a very low point for this time of year. No kidding.

  5. 5
    codydog Says:

    Interesting writing style

  6. 6
    SLM Says:

    I am thinking of selling my NBR. It has been as high as 36 and is like 31 today. What do you think?

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Nicky – thanks. I don’t feel like a “bitter bear”. So now he’s going to be covering everything, not just oil.

    As far as waves go I only see one. That’s the exact kind of hyping/telling only one side of the story (the side favorable to hi) that I fault him for.

  8. 8
    T-Tupp Says:

    z- what one are you referring to as the weather girl? lol

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    NBR – just bounced off the 200d. Land drillers is the one area in service I’m not as fond of given the deceleration and even reversal in rig rates in some areas and the slack created by Canada. Today may not be your best day to sell as the downgrade is harassing the stock. I always look at things from a “would I buy that now” standpoint and no I wouldn’t, it likes catching a fall knife on a chart. But again, at least the 200d held. What are you in: option or stock?

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    tupp- epperson

  11. 11
    T-Tupp Says:

    its like they pick the women who work on CNBC based on looks alone. you should see the donkeys they put on ROB TV (Canada’s CNBC).

    I heard FOX is launching a new financial TV channel. i can only imagine how slanted and biased their coverage will be considering they already have zero credibility with anything that has to do with news. i remember seeing that blond chick they have as a reporter/ anchor telling a Canadian historian that Canada was in Viet Nam an him correcting her live on air. i forget her name but ses real arogant, smug and deffensive.

  12. 12
    codydog Says:

    If you can accept the premise that TV and news stations are basically a business and as such play to their demographic, its gets a lot easier to listen to them. Personally, I leave the TV off and find I only put it on if there is some tremendous breaking macro event happening.

  13. 13
    SLM Says:

    I’m in the stock and it s about flat to a small loss to where I bought it.

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    I’d be elsewhere but you may get a small bounce if the numbers are perceived as bullish in 20 minutes.

    Tupp – Fox business news = disaster. If I criticize them Rupert will have me rubbed out!

    Cody – amen.

    OII – my one up stock today in service. Merrill and RBC really doing a number on the group here.

    Natural gas up another 2%. A little short covering me thinks.

    Nicky – I would never call you one! No offense meant to any female meteorologists out there!

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    If the number is bullish SU and EOG will probably reverse and gain the buck it is down now.

  16. 16
    Pete Says:

    Z-
    Here is the quote from Cramer for his Trust on HAL.
    “So as threatened, I’ve decided to move Halliburton to a Three. That means I’ll use any rally in the stock to sell out of my position. The fundamentals in the energy space are simply too strong right now for me to be in a stock that almost never goes up. ”
    Whats your take on HAL? and their up coming quarterly report.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    Going to air. Back in 20.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    I hate T. Got disconnected on air!

  19. 19
    Dave Says:

    Bulls: Crude to $80+ by September

    http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/11/markets/oil_outlook/index.htm?postversion=2007071110

  20. 20
    codydog Says:

    z-Hightower starting to get bullish on HO and NG

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Mixed bag of a report. Flynn was right about the drop in crude imports as was I about gasoline imports staying up (1.4 mmbpd)

  22. 22
    T-Tupp Says:

    phil gave you a good plug at the end though Z

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    yup, HO bullishness is a little late. I think the winter fuel thing is not only a bit early but also way overblown as we’re no longer apples to apples b/c of regulation. Nicky, can you find out what people will burn in their furnaces this fall? If not, I’ll be doing some checking. What’s the low sulfur contract look like.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    N – yeah, a stopped clock is right twice a day. Maybe next week!!!

    Next time call in and we’ll have some TA on the RBOB and Oil!

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    No but I think he got the crude imports down number right? wow he really missed worse than I thought. What does it tell you that Flynn is diversifying away from pure energy?

  26. 26
    codydog Says:

    The pdf I get doesnt allow me to cut & paste. But, basically their premise is that HO stocks are 40% below year ago levels, and with refiners building rbob stocks, HO has fallen off. But HO re-builds are now 2 1/2 months behind average re-build schedule. As such, sell-offs become buying opportunities due to the tight supply situation.

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    OII screaming today, especially for the double kidney punch the oih took this am.

    Nicky I’m going to have to excel that out to get my head around it. Those are the high sulfur stocks only but where did you get that demand number? Not doubting you at all just would like to have a source.

  28. 28
    codydog Says:

    Fundamentals tend to take a back seat when a newsletter has a following. But I agree with you that at a certain point, mkt functioning actually does matter. Its hard to keep tryng to get short though as the longs trump every day.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Tom – if you’re lurking – love to get a TA on BHI and OII. tia

  30. 30
    redjack Says:

    Wave count…5

    WAVE 85W, S of 20N, moving W@15-20. Squalls in NW Caribbean throughout
    area SW of line from Honduras/Nicaragua border to CozumelMexico are
    likely enhanced by this WAVE.
    WAVE 68W, S of 22N, moving W@15-20, enhancing showers & mild squalls as
    detailed above.
    WAVE 58W, S of 18N, moving W@15-20…squalls 61W-57W lie S of 9N, and
    that’s where we see vorticity (spin). 57W-52W we find squalls
    8N-10N…trailing to 7N/51W. All this activity is enhanced by
    WAVE…axis of WAVE lies somewhere 58W (vorticity max) to 55W (strongest
    squalls farthest N). Impact on SE Caribbean…increase in coverage of
    squalls anytime today, especially Grenada S-ward, with some activity
    possible Windwards…and crossing 65W tonight.
    WAVE 27W, S of 18N, moving W@15. May approach E Caribbean Sat14 night
    or Sun15, but it appears most or all of WAVE’s energy will pass N of
    Caribbean, with mild weather until Trades rebuild E of WAVE.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    Cody – not around here man! Marketing is back of the bus!!!

  32. 32
    redjack Says:

    Corection: Wave count was 4. If I could learn to count, I probably could make more $.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    Redjack. counting is important. lol.

    Is that from you’re subscription service?

    So do you head for short or out to see when something wicked your way comes?

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    OII attempting breakout of 56 ATH. Wouldn’t chase here but continue to hold. I guess they liked that ROV purchase.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    I’ve added a link at the bottom of today’s post to a complimentary copy of the second Alwaysanoption newsletter. I’ve got a shale article in there with comments on CHK, NFX, and HK.

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    TRADE:

    SCU’s head of Canadian ops bounces “to pursue other opportunities”. Probably not good but the stock has held up so far. If Canada were going to be the next big thing I doubt the guy in charge would be pursuing other opportunities. Story is still interesting but I’m opting out around the $1.12 mark. Cost here is $0.89 so a 25% stock gain.

  37. 37
    redjack Says:

    Virgin Islands weather…rain…wave passing to the south.

    I have a hurricane pit reserved in Virgin Gorda, BVI. The boat is placed halfway down a concrete pit. At this time of the year, I don’t venture more than a day away from there.

  38. 38
    Sambone Says:

    Started puting my stops in today on my Oil, Ngas, and metal plays.

  39. 39
    redjack Says:

    Here is a preview on potential earnings from Chevron:
    http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=47515

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    USO looking a little tired here. UNG weaker but still up and saving the day for the service co’s

    RBOB weaker again with crude almost flat. It’s we said earlier, bad number for gasoline, not so bad for crude with the pull. Refiners are still running up of course b/c that’s what they do everyday.

    CLR hit $17.

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Thanks Redjack. That is what I was trying to summarize in today’s post. Pretty solid quarter apparently, especially those market margins. Street seems to like it and the rest of the majors are benefiting from it as well.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    CNBC mentions the Merrill downgrade and highlights BHI and the stock drops a quarter. lemmings.

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    I do some comps of historic trading ranges for the OIH stocks updating an old piece I had which showed the OIH was high to historical valuations back last Winter and much lower than here!

    Valuation calls are tricky and may be forgotten by tomorrow as it’s just the analyst saying hey look, these stocks have gone up too far too fast. He’s not saying business stinks or anything like it. The refining sector saw same thing earlier this year before it jumped another 50%. Unless other analysts dog pile the downgrade tomorrow I’d bet it blows over (if oil and nat gas hold up)

  44. 44
    codydog Says:

    any views why USO options have such low volumes, compared to say OIH?

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    Cody – USO just started trading in April. Just not the liquidity of the long established OIH. They have improved and the spreads have tightened since then though.

  46. 46
    Jessy Says:

    Anyone here playing BTJ or DWSN?

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Jessy

    BTJ : sorry, no

    DWSN caught an upgrade 2 days ago. Any idea the big loss today?

  48. 48
    redjack Says:

    I have a good chunk of BTJ…made some good $

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nicky. Imports were off a bit from the prior week but the weather was a very little bit cooler. I wouldn’t expect that big of a hop back up from last week’s 99 but then I didn’t see 78 as being a good number either. These surveys tend to balance out over a 4 week period. Keep me posted if you see anyone else.

  50. 50
    Jessy Says:

    Profit taking could be the reason for both BTJ and DWSN tanking.

  51. 51
    Fred Says:

    Anyone have the API numbers? Maybe Sane sleeping in today. Thanks!

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Jessy – some are surmising Tx / Ok in the peanut gallery that is DWSN’s yahoo message board and I think that combined exacerbated by profit taking is likely. Could be an op as I’d bet Matrix did their homework so close to 2Q #s. Too bad no options.

    Power trying to fail here so if I’m absent for awhile you know why.

  53. 53
    Saeed Says:

    Mexico confirms attacks on gas pipelines, claim of rebel responsability

    Jul 10, 2007

    MEXICO CITY – Mexico’s Interior Department said Tuesday that recent gas pipeline explosions were caused by “attacks … aimed at weakening democratic institutions” after a rebel group claimed responsibility.

    The government said it was stepping up security at “strategic installations” across the country after an explosion Tuesday at a pipeline run by the state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, and two other blasts at gas ducts on Thursday.

    Officials said investigations were continuing into the cause of the blasts, but the statement by the Interior Department – responsible for domestic security – came a short time after a small, leftist guerrilla group said its members had planted explosives on the pipelines.

    While the Interior Department described the incidents as “attacks,” it did not confirm the rebel group’s responsibility.

    “The Mexican government categorically condemns the attacks against Pemex facilities. This criminal conduct aims to weaken democratic institutions, the patrimony of Mexicans and the safety of their families,” the statement said.

    Copyright 2004 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

    [back]

    TOP 5 Most Read Stories

    > US GAS: Futures Rally As Forecasts Look To Ongoing Heat
    > Nymex Chief Wants Rival Regulated
    > Mexico confirms attacks on gas pipelines, claim of rebel responsability
    > Energy Metals Enters Agreement With Anadarko Land Corp.
    > OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Follows Products Higher

    TOP 5 Most Read Commentaries

    > The Energy Report for Wednesday, July 11, 2007
    > Summer 2007 Seasonal Forecast
    > Energy Weather for Thursday 5/17
    > EIA Discussion for Week Ending May 11th
    > EIA Discussion for Week Ending June 8th

    ABOUT : CONTACT : FEEDBACK : TERMS OF USE : PRODUCTS

  54. 54
    redjack Says:

    I was disappointed in the BTJ sell off last week, however that followed and impressive run-up from the previous weeks. Actually it is at a good entry point before earnings announcement.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Welcome Saeed! The hills are alive with rebels. The rebels themselves confirmed the attacks and vowed more. See the bottom of today’s post.

    Saeed – you have an interesting IP address. Guessing you guys aren’t in the fan club, eh?

  56. 56
    Stephen Says:

    I’ve never understood the rally in DWSN, this is a onshore geophysics company doing far better than offshore geophysics companies PGS and CGG, when onshore day rates are so much softer than offshore day rates.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Stephen – and it looks quite a bit more expensive to boot.

  58. 58
    T-Tupp Says:

    z- why do you look for a WTI trade with EOG since their prodution is almost 90% gassssss? while SU, NXY, & OXY all produce almost 90% crude? just out of curiousity– not questioning your skils 😉

  59. 59
    zman Says:

    hey question away. Looking at my losses yesterday and today I’m questioning my skills too.

    On EOG the correlation is there with oil. Don’t know why. Maybe it’s just the most volatile of the large cap E&Ps, maybe it’s that their LNG imported from Trinidad is priced to bunker fuel (or at least it used to be….haven’t checked of late). Anyway, it just looks like it trades with oil 3 out of 5 days and doesn’t get hurt so much with a tumble in gas. I’m not in right now.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article137040.ece

    Opec says not to blame for high oil prices, again blames shortage of refining capacity. They also point to the amount of speculative money in the oil market right now; an amount OPEC termed as “plenty”

    I couldn’t agree more.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Independent refiners refuse to fall with today’s cracks. This week will still show up cracks. Well at least we didn’t got to 10 days up for RBOB!

    OIH trying to mount a little recovery here. Lot of losses being paired.

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    TSO falling off a bit. HOC getting abused. FTO still up a touch. This has been a big run.

  63. 63
    H Says:

    Hello Everyone….

    I been away the past 10 days, attented a meeting of solar investors, and ended up putting my past profits back in the group early last week, and it all worked out fine, just closed out those postions again yesterday and today, went into stocks and options( long and long) i been doing DD on this for a while, and its the new con edision- FSLR, TSl and JASO-

    Well I can take a good breather again form it, and hang around here again,

    I see BP took some offline, 250,000BPD at one of their refiners-

  64. 64
    H Says:

    Whats with the cramer following here all of a sudden, I can’t belive it! Cramer says HAL’s management sucks, now but they were great when they announced the move to Dubri, but no matter they can’t move the stk, so its not played with the group, and he wants out , because its a bady!

  65. 65
    sane Says:

    H,

    Yeah it was the Whiting refinery in Indiana they took offline. That night my gas prices jumped 50 cents. I am only about 25 miles from it.

    Sane

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    Hey H – thought you abandoned us! Congrats on the solar trades. That FSLR was a beast. STP looking strong too.

    TSO getting hit all of the sudden. May roll to Augusts if it breaks $60. Who knows what hit it…cramer lol.

    Nicky – I agree WTI, needs a big, big up move one morning followed by interday reversal. I’m with Flynn, I think oil goes higher, probably slows the descent of gasoline.

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Sane – you got those API 3s? People been looking for you!

  68. 68
    Popeye Says:

    Looks like HAL leading the OIH lower.

  69. 69
    sane Says:

    The American Petroleum Institute reported a decline of 6.8 million barrels in crude supplies for the week ending July 6. The Energy Department had reported a fall of 1.4 million barrels for the latest week. Motor gasoline supplies rose by 2.9 million barrels, the API said. The government reported that supplies were up 1.2 million barrels. Distillate supplies climbed 1.5 million barrels, the API said. The government posted a rise of 0.8-million barrels

  70. 70
    zman Says:

    H – believe me, no following of his but he did management to shoot HAL after I bought in. Said it was “too tied to the horrible N. American natural gas market!”

    Back on June 1st there’s a video you can play of him extolling the virtues of …wait for it…the North American Natural Gas Market.

  71. 71
    sane Says:

    Sorry I was late to the party. Got jammed up in meetings all day.

    Sane

  72. 72
    Moe Gamble Says:

    Regarding gasoline, better read the report again. It said that blending components rose 1.2 million barrels. However, finished gasoline fell.

    This is likely an ethanol build, but it’s not a gasoline build.

    All in all, we’re still losing ground on gasoline.

  73. 73
    J Says:

    H,

    Anybody talking about YGE at your solar meeting? Seems like a Chinese solar stock is the ultimate momentum play. It’s had a nice week.

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    Moe,

    Blending components and reformulated gasoline stocks rose. Conventional gasoline stocks fell. Total gasoline stocks rose but finished gasoline production was off very slightly for the first time in months.

    From a days supply perspective were treading water at 21.4. I wouldn’t call that losing ground. Am I missing your point?

  75. 75
    zman Says:

    Nicky lol. Just wanted to see if anyone was still awake on this paint drying day. I have to admit, he has been right on price of late whatever the reason. In general I mean.

  76. 76
    H Says:

    J- more talk about TSL, and it was spot on , tsl got some new contracts-

  77. 77
    codydog Says:

    z–unless some buying wanders into OIH, tomorrow could be your day

  78. 78
    zman Says:

    Cody – you know I’m long, right?

  79. 79
    sane Says:

    I have been looking into maybe playing alt energy stocks too mainly wind and solar. My wife is letting me buy some solar pannels for my garage for my birthday ( today ).

    Sane

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    Happy Birthday Sane! Let me know what kind. I’ve been thinking about that or a household turbine.

  81. 81
    sane Says:

    I had a small turbine ( homemade ) in my back yard, but a tree fell on it this spring during a bad storm.

    Sane

  82. 82
    sane Says:

    Thanks Z

  83. 83
    codydog Says:

    z–long, short, its all the same and only a click away. My friends, family etc have given up asking if I’m long or short as they know it changes with a few clicks in seconds. I meant more your knowledge of the oil corps and the increasing demand for that info if energy takes a tumble.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Sane – You’re a man after my own heart! Home made wind turbine! Closest I’ve come to that is mulling over making ethanol with a guy down the street I normally brew beer with!

    Ah, the late day OIH rally! OII trying for a close over $56 ATH.

  85. 85
    H Says:

    J- stay away from YEG, careful with LDK….I only know what I have brought which is FSLR , TSL, some stp and JASO_

  86. 86
    zman Says:

    Thanks Cody. You’re too kind.

  87. 87
    sane Says:

    Z,

    I have a hillbilly living down the street from me that runs an industrial and automtive recycling operation, I did some wiring work on his pole-barn for him so he let me pilfer some junk from the heap and I fabed a turbine and a battery array. worked real well for the garage.

    Sane

  88. 88
    sane Says:

    Thanks N.

  89. 89
    J Says:

    H,

    Thanks for the info.

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    Nicky – I’ve got August RBOB down $0.0709 @2.2985. Is that right!?

  91. 91
    zman Says:

    OIH mounted an impressive last hour comeback. Not positive but I’d say the daily chart’s uptrend remains un broken. OII got it ATH close.

    BHI recovered nicely. HAL was cramered.

    Nicki – no talk about fundamentals around these parts, ya hear?

  92. 92
    scoop006 Says:

    Z CLR=EOY$?

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Scoop – give me an hour on that.

  94. 94
    zman Says:

    If they hit the mid point of their guidance I’d say they’ll do $2.25 to $2.50 CFPS as long as commodity prices hold up (I went with a pretty conservative realized oil price of $60 realized for the year which they may beat with those hedges and higher production as the year goes by). You could easily put a 7.5x on that CFPS which gives you roughly $18 to $20. The multiple could be higher given their growth rate, tight control of op ex, and those nice new hedges but why push things, eh?

  95. 95
    zman Says:

    Hey Marrkkk – how’s an 8.0 multiple of fwd cfps strike you on an oil little E&P growing at 20%?

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    Thanks Kevin! HAL increases buyback by $2B. Now $3B authorized which at current prices would equate to about 9% of the outstanding shares.

  97. 97
    zman Says:

    Thanks Nicky – very interesting indeed.

  98. 98
    El Diablo Says:

    Zman-

    I didn’t see it mentioned in the comments yesterday, so you may have missed a critical detail:

    In CNBC’s tick-by-tick coverage of the oil market following the report, the verbatim analysis was “while a 0.2% increase in utilization could be interpreted as bearish, the actual amount of gasoline produced was less than the prior week, which would be bullish for gasoline.”

    So there you have it. CNBC is finally focusing on gasoine produced. Well, um, when its bullish at least….

  99. 99
    zman Says:

    Thanks El D and welcome back, you’ve been missed!

    No I didn’t see it. I stopped watching them as they don’t matter. I dare them to take a look at numbers going back just two years ago when the 98% utilization number got you 9.2 mm bps of production, the same as yesterday’s 90.2% util. got you. It may be blended up with ethanol to get there but it’s not like we’re running out.

    I didn’t post the chart of gasoline stocks but on the EIA site you can see the sharply upward slope of the last 10 weeks or so of gasoline stocks coming up to meet the sharply downward sloping move of gasoline avg levels this time of year. We’re about to be back in the range.

  100. 100
    Flower Shops and Flowers Information Says:

    Flower Shops and Flowers Information

    Sorry, it just sounds like a crazy idea for me 🙂

  101. 101
    Invert Nis Says:

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