10
Jul

Tuesday Briefing

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Good Morning! Oil gave back a little ground on profit taking yesterday while the closure of the 250,000 bpd crude unit at BP's Whiting facility drove gasoline above $2.30. The unit will be off line three to five days for unplanned maintenance. Whiting already had a 75,000 bpd unit shut down. While the perma-bulls will point to this as yet another reason for gasoline market tightness I'd point out that this reduces demand for crude and increases the chances that we hit 14 year highs on crude stocks in the next two weeks. Early consensus estimates call for a small build in crude this week.

Weather Eye Watch: Atlantic and Caribbean look clear.

Turkish Invasion Watch: Obviously oil didn't buy it yesterday. Or at least that it was something that would drive crude up though what could be better for oil in the middle east than multi state warfare? Oh right, there already is one. Still, Turkey's government is not above playing politics with their military any more than anyone else in the neighborhood and their elections are just around the corner (July 22). Of course, Turkey want's to go beat up on the Kurds, one of the U.S.'s allies and the U.S. has warned them not to interfere but it's summer and temperatures and tempers are running high. If we needed one more little bit of geopolitical flavor to add to the current stew that is Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, yada and distract us from the fact that we're at 9 year inventory highs and near record production, well, there you go.

Bullish Sentiment On The Rise Now...That Oil Has Been On The Rise

  • Barclays Capital forecast a period of consolidation for Brent crude above $72 ahead of a run at $78.65, the record touched in August 2006.
  • Mark Mathias of hedge fund Dawnay Day Qauntum said he was looking for oil to test $80 this year. "We are firmly in the bull camp - don't be short oil!"

Missing The Point Watch: From Flynn of Alaron, "Still the bottom line is that despite the improvements in refinery runs we are still running at a dismal 90% of capacity. And what’s worse is that this week refinery runs should move down due to the problems with Valero and Coffeyville." I like how he talks about utilization being low at 90% but fails to talk about how gasoline production has been rising for weeks now.

In the same week two years ago, utilization was running 98% of what was then capacity. Would that be a good number? That was pre Katrina.

  • That week recorded utilization of 98% and we produced 9.2 million barrels of gasoline per day.
  • Last week, at only 90% utilization, we produced 9.4 million barrels of gasoline per day (a 2% INCREASE). I ask you, what matters more, gasoline produced or the number by which we measure how busy refineries are?

Nembe Creek Back Online. Shell's 77,000 bopd Nembe creek facility in Nigeria has been returned to service. The loss of Nembe back in May was big news but I suspect its return won't be.

(IOC) Watch. nada. I'll keep you posted as this one's going to move hard in one direction or the other with the Elk 2 news.
Natural Gas Treads Water. Natural gas rallied on the early week northeastern heat wave before settling back to close off $0.04, right on top of support at $6.38. The heat is now forecast to stick around through Wednesday followed by more normal temps. The rest of the country, especially the west will continue to swelter but most traders all live in the east and alas...

CFTC: Net Short Position Continues To Grow - Third Record Level This Summer. The non-commerical net longs pared back their interest by 1,000 contracts while the shorts expanded their's by 7,600. As Phil at PSW has pointed out to me several times now over the past few months "sometimes when everyone thinks something is going to happen, it's because it's going to happen". While gas has already gotten weaker than I expected the combination of:

  1. increasing seasonal demand,
  2. marginal economics for some plays at current gas prices,
  3. increased competition for LNG at current prices,
  4. storm angst, and
  5. a historically giant short position

This combination of factors could yield a sudden and significant reversal in prices this summer.

Net Non-Commercial Short Position:

cftc-070307.jpg

Holdings Watch:

CALLS

  • (EOG) - sold for $1.55 as it started to run out of steam with oil. Essentially a wash trade on this second half of my position.
  • (BHI) - bought a 2x position in the July 90s for $1.05.

PUTS: No action

Odds & Ends:

Analyst Watch: (DWSN) gets upped to buy at Matrix, (FSLR) cut to hold at Lazard.

END Watch: (END) announced yesterday it will become operator of the Agat discovery in the Norwegian Sea. This is a smallish gas discovery which is "in a good neighborhood". I'm waiting for second quarter numbers (and possibly updated guidance) before getting too excited. Another exploratory test (Emu) is also in the offing and should be at TD sometime in August as it was a 45 day well spud in mid June.

COP Buyback: (COP) plans to spend $15 billion over the course of 2007 and 2008 buying itself. The news sent the entire energy complex higher yesterday. Exxon may have a few extra dollars to devote to it's buyback as well after pulling out of Venezuela.

70 Responses to “Tuesday Briefing”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Kevin,

    I always like COG: well run, good unconventional assets, good hedges, growing without blowing out their unit operating costs and F&D costs. On the chart it looks like it needs to cross the 50 day at $38.30 just to be safe. That could be any day and if it does I’ll be looking to add them to my list of gassy stocks that will zoom back to their recent highs as natural gas recovers this summer.

  2. 2
    codydog Says:

    z–just curious if you read/like/hate the daily Hightower report on energy/softs etc…

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    I used to a long time ago. It was good work back. Haven’t seen it lately.

    Quickly lower opening. More to do with the broader markets than with commodity weakness.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    N – Did you send the right chart? I got the emini 500. I wasn’t sure the inveserse relationship held up for oil and the cftc as it does (has in the past for natural gas) since oil is global and gas is (was) local. Do you have a chart overlaying the CFTC non commercial position with oil prices.

    I’d think the news today (AA and HD) bad enough to cause a big sell off in the broader market. It is creating some buying opportunities in the OIH crowd. OII, HALL, BHI.

    Also, gassy stocks KWK and SWN getting slapped while gas is rising this morning.

  5. 5
    jazzkool Says:

    Z, please let us know when you buy EOG calls again. I have made a ton of money following your lead on EOG calls.

    Jazz

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Jazz – thanks for the comment. Not yet but I’ll always let you know!

  7. 7
    ku4a Says:

    I’m keeping an eye on BHI here for an entry into the July 90 calls

  8. 8
    codydog Says:

    Nicky–are you suggesting that cl/rbob etc are headed into an Amaranth type situation?

    Not trying to over-reach basis your charts, but just curious what your thoughts are.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    BHI rallying hard. August would be the more prudent contract. I’m in the Julys but will roll to August soon.

  10. 10
    T-Tupp Says:

    z- nice post today. just a thought, but o you think the short non-commercial NG contracts may in part be caused by the increased YOY mount of commodity traders. hasn’t the sheer number of average joe’s investing in commodities skyrocketed? it has to have some effect

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Nicky – what was the net position like in Jan 07? I’d assume net shorter?

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    FBR monkeying with their price targets (as part of the mark to market process that occurs each quarter):

    big ups for SGY (I wouldn’t touch that company but if it gives me an opp to short I’m in)

    smaller ups for COG, MUR, HES, MRO

    Cut TPs for APC (to 70 from $76) – still like that one a lot at current levels but have not gotten back in yet)

    cut CHK a buck (big deal)

    cut CRK by $6 bucks (I’d blow it off but the FBR guys are smart so I’m steering away until I understand the reason for the reduction…normally I really like this low costs producer with great growth postential but FBR took their PT down 15%)

  13. 13
    zman Says:

    Energy (XOI, XNG and OIH) all recovering nicely without a real recovery in the broader market.

    Natural gas continues to march higher.

    Refiners acting like its another day in paradise with big losses reversed to big gains. I’m not taking the bait until I see numbers tomorrow.

  14. 14
    Kevin Says:

    Z,

    Thanks for the info on COG.

    K

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    $5 for Flynn and who got the other $5, Mann Financial?

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    I’ve gone cold turkey on CNBC. Less flotsam in my life = less jetsom in my trading.

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    IEA underestimating at least some demand. Written media keeps playing up their report from yesterday. Well here’s a piece showing they’re being too conservative on Norway at least. If they got this wrong by this much, how far off is their total number?

    In a report published on Monday, the IEA predicted that Norway’s daily production would be 2.51 million barrels of oil and oil condensate in 2007.

    This compared with the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate’s January prognosis of 2.6 mln barrels – itself a strong downward adjustment from an earlier prediction of 3 mln.

    The IEA report predicted that Norwegian oil production will fall to 2.4 mln barrels in 2008, 2.26 mln in 2009 and 2.05 mln in 2012, an IEA analyst said.

    The Norwegian directorate told Thomson Financial that the IEA figure did represent a big difference.

    But the spokeswoman said the number fell within a ‘span of uncertainty’

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    N – true, true, in that case keep me informed and put any mention of T Boone or Matt Smith in all caps so I don’t miss them on air! Flynn I can miss.

  19. 19
    tom2oc Says:

    Hey hi Z, looks like you’re leaning on the bullish side of oil these days. Got a different take here but with the oil crooks we never know. I see XOM as bearish as per this TA below loaded on the blog. Lots of downside possible if that upper trend line is not surpassed. Just cashed in a nice profit on the dip this morning on puts bought yesterday and debating now whether to re-enter the same ones again at yesterday’s price with that bounce up. This might turn out to be a profitable vacation day off if it continues like this. Any FA take on XOM? Thanks.

    http://img165.imageshack.us/my.php?image=xom79om7.jpg

  20. 20
    scoop006 Says:

    Z Can you please explain why the refiners continue to skyrocket and your short/long term prognosis for this sector.TIA

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Tom – long time no chat! XOM will have another blowout quarter and may increase their buyback.

    Scoop: gasoline prices continue to jump, this week outpacing gains in crude. Short term I think the group goes a little higher. My positions are still very small here and this last little rally has made them much smaller. We need to see utilization (unfortunately production doesn’t count) rise and we probably don’t get much of that increase this week. A continuation of the rise in production is needed to help restore stocks. Apparently imports don’t count so we need to see them fall off a bit and still get a build in gasoline inventories. Long term I see it lower as a recovery there, with very high crude stocks and distillate stocks should bring the group down. But now, they partying and I’m not putting more on the table, except for the occasional inventory day trade prior to seeing a real change in sentiment. For that gasoline needs to fall to somewhere back below $2.20 and $2.10 to be sure.

    Listen for the picks live at 9:25 on MN1.com tomorrow!

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    FSLR rallying hard off the Lazard downgrade and weak market this morning.

    The technician at PSW still likes STP a lot as it has quite a ways to go to catch up from a chart perspective. Me, I like to trade things where you don’t have to use a 2010 multiple of earnings but these are fun for the occasional distraction from the lull in pre earnings season news.

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    UBS expects big time beat out of MRO. As high as $2.34 vs $1.92 Street.

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    HAL – having ridden 50d for about 2 weeks is now moving to the upside. I’m looking for at least another $1 of upside short term as we approach earnings on the 23rd as long as natural gas holds $6.50 and oil holds $70. Those are admittedly somewhat arbitrary numbers but you’ve got to have some market environment in mind when making a trade. The earnings revisions to date have been negligible like most of service and this will be the second quarter with the CEO moved to the middle east, the company refocused and KBR out the door. Bet it’s a pretty bullish conference call.

    Nicky, does the jumpiness of natural gas look like a bit of short covering to you?

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    Nicky – what do you think about going long nat gas here?

    http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=NGU7&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

  26. 26
    tom2oc Says:

    Thanks for the thoughtful response Z. I jost got back in those XOM puts even cheaper than paid yesterday. Only for daytrade and will protect half of earlier profit so no worries. Thanks for the information on your picks. I did listen to one of your earlier MN1 show and you really rock. Congrats. Don’t know how you can trade successuflly those knee jerk reactions correctly. I’d rather wait for the dust to settle a bit before going in (5 to 10 minutes after). Just proves that you master the TA perfectly.

    Weren’t you supposed to go pay site? I thought you did because I didn’t have access to the comments at one time. Too bad, I’m off trading these days because whatever you’d charge would be worth it.

    Thanks again!

    Hey, that second round on XOM are already sligthly in the black. Will try to protect this profit and keep the other one in full. 🙂 I’m telling ya, if XOM closes red today on USO shooting higher, this thing is going down to test that main support line at 81 in coming weeks and if this fails, boy, this stock will tank and the whole market with it. But I’m probably dreaming alive here… too many oil crooks. Careful not to be too bullish tomorrow with your picks though. FInancial stocks are very troublesome and if they fail that major support line, it too can be bring the whole market down in a hurry. Contrary to most TA folks, I don’t trust this market on the long side at all these days. Heck, Happy is expecting COMP to shoot higher I just read. I like to be on the other side of the herd. 🙂

  27. 27
    tom2oc Says:

    Typo. I meant … proof that you master the FA perfectly… of course.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Nicky – since you put it that way how about all three? 😉

    Tom – Good luck with the XOM trade, I rarely doubt your TA.

    As for the trades we plan to line them up before the number and then either play immediately or wait for headfake if it runs contrary to our thoughts.

    We go pay September 1 as part of a site integration with Philstockworld.com. Registered members who’ve been around awhile and comment/contribute will be eligible for a discount.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    Wow, check out the last 3 days in LUFK. Still cheap but man that’s a move! Anybody got the catalyst?

  30. 30
    p.wilmington Says:

    From todays Financial Times:

    Crude surges as producers slash discounts
    By Javier Blas in London

    Published: July 9 2007 21:37
    The actual cost of crude oil has surged to a record high through a combination of world benchmarks rising and a sharp reduction in the discounts that large producers, such as Saudi Arabia, Iran or Mexico, are offering to refineries.

    The latest in a series of cuts to discounts – known as “differentials” in industry jargon – has cut the most important markdowns to the lowest level since 2004.

    ADVERTISEMENT
    The reduction has gone largely undetected outside the refinery industry because financial markets pay more attention to the price of the oil futures traded in London and New York, where prices have come within $2.50 of record highs. The reduced discounts reflect a tighter oil market after two cuts in production by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in the past year and its recent rejection of calls from industrialised nations to increase supplies.

    Strong refining margins and more refining capacity to process low quality oil have also given producing countries the opportunity to cut discounts.

    Lawrence Eagles, head of the International Energy Agency markets division, said: “We are seeing more refinery flexibility to process heavy, low quality oil.”

    Oil-producing countries sell their oil to refineries and trading houses at a discount or, in the case of high quality grades, at a premium, to Brent and West Texas Intermediate, the world benchmarks.

    In recent years, oil producing countries offered large discounts for their heavy, sour, low-quality oil to make it profitable for refineries to process it. Heavy oil produces low added value products, such as fuel oil, while light, high-quality oil produces more petrol and diesel.

    Supply disruptions in Nigeria and lower production in mature areas, such as the North Sea, have also contributed to the cuts.

    Frédéric Lasserre, head of commodities at Société Générale in Paris, said: “In a situation of scarcity of oil, discounts are always reduced.”

    Iran on Monday became the latest country to cut its discounts, after adjustment by Saudi Arabia last week.

    Iran narrowed its main crude grade discount to European refineries by 25 cents a barrel to $2.60 a barrel, the lowest since September 2004.

    Saudi Arabia cut the discount on its main stream, known as Arab Light, to European refineries to $3.20 a barrel, from a $6 a barrel average in 2006, its lowest level since late 2004. The discount to US refineries is at its lowest point in more than three years.

    Nigeria, where high quality crude oil commands a premium rather than a discount because refineries can obtain more petrol from it, has doubled its mark-up compared with last year. The premium on Bonny Light oil, the main Nigerian oil export, has risen to $2.90 a barrel, from an average of $1.50 in 2006. The Nigerian premium is now at its highest level in six years.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    Thanks P – good story. good food for thought and I’d missed it.

    EOG higher without me.

    CLR making new ATH.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    NFX rocking here as well. Call from the second edition of our newsletter was to buy the Jan 50 Calls for $3.60. Now bid is $4.30 and unfortunately it jumped before I got in.

    TSO making another strong move here and I’m still not taking the bait on puts.

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    TRADE:

    HAL calls bought at $0.80

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    TRADE: HAL calls bought at $0.80.

    Site is slow today. I’m told it’s a server migration issue. They are going to have an account migration issue if this keeps up.

  35. 35
    tom2oc Says:

    Z, I read you regret not being in EOG. I looked at it and TA wise it’s better for you to stay out unless it goes above 76. See the TA below. But I dun know nothing about FA so you’re probably right again. Just wanted you to see the TA side of the trade though. No need to jump the gun!

    http://img512.imageshack.us/my.php?image=eogmo5.jpg

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Thanks N. Quite a bid of red today but no significant moves in the stocks.

    T – take a look at the long term NFX chart.

  37. 37
    tom2oc Says:

    N, WTI, no but let me check it out.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    someone please send Bernake on vacation.

  39. 39
    tom2oc Says:

    WTI very bearish looking. Seems that this 27.2 support will fail. Wouldn’t get long this thing with a 10 ft pole unless it trades above 31 and that is not for tomorrow. If that 27.2 line fails, it might tank real hard. But don’t take my word for it, I dun know anything about the FA on this co. Follow your system! G/L!

  40. 40
    tom2oc Says:

    NFX looks bullish to me but stop would be 45.5

  41. 41
    zman Says:

    Tom – I think she was looking at west texas intermediate. You can use USO as a proxy or this:

    http://charts3.barchart.com/chart.asp?sym=CLQ7&data=A&jav=adv&vol=Y&evnt=adv&grid=Y&code=BSTK&org=stk&fix=

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Broader market getting shelled. Gee thanks Ben.

  43. 43
    tom2oc Says:

    N, LOL! sorry! Crude oil is a wild card and TA tells nothing on it due to oil crooks shenanigans, weather and geo-pol. I used to try to do TA on crude but I realized it is useless and not needed anymore. I just look at the darn oil stock I want to trade. I got in XOM on that chart I loaded on the blog last night and took nice profit on the opening dive. Then reloaded exactly at the top which was resistance and now already made 50% of the first profit. And didn’t even care what crude was doing! All on TA on the stock iteself. I’m telling ya, I paid a lot to learn that oil or OIH stocks often do not always follow crude. Want to bet that if the market tanks on the financials, oil stocks will tank also regardless if oil keeps shooting higher? The hell with crude unless I’d be trading it directly which I don’t intend to do. Hope that helps.

  44. 44
    scoop006 Says:

    Z- Thanks for reply # 33.Holding TSO Aug $60p’s@$3.60. Prudent to sell and absorb loss now?

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    August should be ok, I’d least wait on tomorrow’s numbers as I think gasoline has really outdone itself.

    early read on tomorrow’s numbers is an 825,000 barrel build in gasoline stocks.

  46. 46
    zman Says:

    Last 20 days gasoline has outpaced oil about 3%. Now I see Kilduff and Flynn saying the market is transitioning back from a oil driving oil higher market to a gasoline tightness driving oil higher.

    Flynn is looking for another draw tomorrow. I wonder if you get big builds instead of the big draws you expect does it maybe make you rethink your position. After it happens several times you’d think it would but some people just argue it should be more expensive than it is.

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    CHK and NFX both working. HK is giving you a good entry point.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    Bought CHK Jan $37.50 for $2.30. This is a play from my Gas Shale article in the second newsletter published yesterday.

    Nicky – is that from an anon friend? I agree with them on all three. Gasoline prices (cracks) were high before shipping occurred although gas imports are volatile for a variety of reasons. I do think production will continue to creep and it seems that distillate production and stocks will as well. The reaction will be interesting…like you said, nine day run in RBOB and it wasn’t exactly cheap to start and a big chunk of it occurred after the data was out.

    IEA should be urging OPEC to build more refining capacity, not pump more barrels.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    To be clear, here’s what I was agreeing with them on:

    I think imports will continue to be high for another month although volatile on a weekly basis.

    Utilization will be flattish and production will creep up again.

    We will see another build in distillates.

    and also on the point about the market shrugging off what seemed like lousy numbers with a few lame comments about utilization by the talking heads.

  50. 50
    tom2oc Says:

    Out of those XOM puts. Nothing beats making a second the profit on the same bloody slide down. That was a profitable day off work! Those market puts rocked today! Thanks for your help Z. Good luck with inventories tomorrow!

    Best,

    Tom

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    N – my response to your wondering would be to tell you I’m lining up more longs than shorts as quick trades for the morning.

  52. 52
    scoop006 Says:

    Z- FYI J.Cramer has turned bearish on HAL and will be selling his position on any strength. GO HAL.

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Options that you can grab just after the report depending on the character of the report. Phil and I go over them after the numbers come out but we should be more organized for tomorrow’s report. Our track record has been pretty good (we’ve been doing it on the PSW site a lot longer than on aire) with several 25 to 125% gainers in the few hours after the report.

    Scoop: he’s worthless. Pray tell what his reasoning is.

  54. 54
    Larry H Says:

    Zman,
    nice to have you on board CHK with me. Is my favorite name and i like that 55tcf in unproved that nobody seems to put much value on at this point, i think one of the majors eventually takes them out for access to all that onshore acreage..

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Larry H – I always like them. I’ve been in and out of the name a few times this year which is more technical than anything else and as an options trader you have to take it when they’re willing to pay you if you know what I mean.

    I wrote a piece for our newsletter extolling their virtues in being the leader in shale gas. Love the 55 Tcf/massive undrilled locs. When they become the very cheap, largest provider of North American natural gas next year, how do they not get taken out by a major? Ties in nicely with the elections too, majors want to look green, want to look like they’re doing something on the domestic side etc…

  56. 56
    scoop006 Says:

    Z From J. Cramer”The stock is incredibly cheap but has massively lagged its competitors and is still levered to the awful North american natural gas market. I thought for a while the company was doing the right things- a huge buyback, moving headquarters to Dubai in order to better focus on the overseas business- but it hasn’t made an ounce of difference to the stock price.”
    He may be worthless, but he is right that the stock price hasn’t increased in value. However, if one would have taken KBR shares at the spinoff {against his advise} a nice profit would have been made.

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    Thanks Scoop. I wonder how he gets that the N. America natural gas market is awful?! Canada may be a little down in the dumps but the 20+ year highs on activity in the US more than make up for it. It’s not been bad to them at all. The stock has recently been looking up of late but Jimmy only likes a stock like FSLR which is hot, hot, hot. Did he add a comment like “go with SLB! Best of breed! Booyaaaa!!!”?

  58. 58
    zman Says:

    Larry – If you like CHK, and I assume you’re a long term holder, what do you think of their oilier Oklahoma counterpart, CLR? I thought it came cheap and I’d bet this quarter’s estimates are a gimme.

  59. 59
    scoop006 Says:

    He’s been bullish on the oil service /drillers sectors for past 60 days and is showing great movement in
    NE,NOV,RIG,SLB,XOM.&XTO. His charitable trust is currently holding HAL. RIG,XTO.

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    Thanks Scoop. out for a bit.

  61. 61
    scoop006 Says:

    Z Cramer pumping COP @ $84. “going to $100 and $100 stocks go to $120. Will be at par by EOY.”

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    COP is a good story. Especially with a strong natural gas. He’s probably right about the EOY but that who 100 to 120 premise I hear people say he’s been spouting lately. Fundamental nonsense but of this market its a truism.

  63. 63
    jim Says:

    gosh, it seems phil & tom just hate xom, np matter what. need an opinion on xom sell or hold here @ 86+. they are making aa lot of money

  64. 64
    Larry H Says:

    Zman,
    actually, I took a small position in CLR a few weeks ago after you profiled it here. I am going to give it a few quaters to get used to their reporting style and to get more familiar with their properties. I wasnt totally blown away by the management call a few weeks ago but it looks like they have some pretty decent leases and could end up being a decent mid sized player. One of the reasons i really like chk is both the management stle of Aubrey M, as well as the hedging team they have in place. I always like natgas E&P companies to be great hedgers and Aubrey has proven that he gets it, but thanks for the original write up on CLR.

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    Depends on what you’re in: the stock or options and how long dated the options are. I’m no XOM hater here…far from it.

    They’re making fistloads of cash in refining and E&P. Bigger than last year by a goodly sum. Could be time for an expanded buyback.

    Earnings are out July 26, one of the earlier names in the oil patch and I bet they beat. I’ll warn you that I’m not playing them either way and I don’t often play big caps for earnings (too many variables: for instance I haven’t paid attention to how the chemical companies are doing and they make a lot there)

    If you talking about an opinion for the very short term stick with them on the TA side. But if its just a “love to hate the oil company steers the investment thing” stay away from that kind of thinking. Windfall profits won’t happen, Democrats taking the White House and both houses won’t kill them either.

  66. 66
    zman Says:

    Larry – re CLR – just added their first hedges as public company tonight. $72.90 on 40% of expected oil (mid-point 07 guidance) Aug through April. That’s one-third of their total BOE prod for 73 bucks! Not bad work for your first time (at least in the public spotlight). Back in 30.

  67. 67
    scoop006 Says:

    Z RE#99 can you guesstimate a trading range until EOY.

  68. 68
    zman Says:

    Scoop – remind me tomorrow afternoon.

  69. 69
    Kevin Says:

    HAL just increased dividend and buyback!

    Should be good news for the stock!

    K

  70. 70
    Erica Says:

    Erica

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