07
Jul

Weekly Wrap – Week Ended 07/06/07

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It was a strong week for the major oils and oil service sectors. E&P and the gassier names were tempered by a 5% drop in natural gas futures as even a smaller than expected storage injection failed to lift the slumping commodity. I know I sound like a broken record but I think we're nearer the bottom than the top on gas prices. We have been looking to get long and I think that opportunity is close at hand, maybe in the next week or two as natural gas gets closer to $6.

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Holdings Watch:

CALLS:

  • IOC Recap. Bought July $22.50 Calls for $2.15 Monday after a $44 to $19 drop in the stock struck me as too much over last weekend (see Monday's write up here). Sold Thursday for $4.70, a 119% gain. The stock continue a bit of a rally after my sale but close Friday off and against the direction of the group as people started to worry about the final drilling report at the Elk2 well which caused all the hub bub in the first place. Last bid of the week on those calls was $4.40 so I don't feel too bad about the few hours they spent just over $5. I'll be watching the stock for more news regarding the ELK2 well and will keep you posted and play accordingly.
  • (OII) Bought August $60s for $1.10 on Friday as the stock is breaking out of a short term base to new all time highs. Though not a pure "hurricane play" they definitely would benefit in the event of one.
  • (HK) Bought the August $15s for $1.55. This is one of my three favorite gas shale plays and a good stock in general. Look for my write up on it in the Alwaysanoption newsletter on Monday.

PUTS

(TSO) - I was faked out by Thursday's oil report and added a small TSO July $57.50 put position for $.1.80 (last bid $1; a 44% hit in two days, ouch!). Though we got much bigger than expected product builds in oil, gasoline, and distillates all rallied last week sending the refiners higher (despite the fact that cracks only treaded water I guess they were shedding a sigh of relief that prices didn't tumble). I expect a reversal in the oil markets next week and for this and my other refining puts to come back to life.

Open Positions. Positions remain pretty light since my Honduras trip. I'm biding my time until I see some a stabilized natural gas price and falling gasoline prices.

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Recently Closed Positions:
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OIH continues to rally. I'm still thinking a quick trip to 185 is in the cards.

Format Watch: In August I’ll be moving to a slightly more structured format. The basic outline will look something like this:

  1. Intro
  2. Crude Oil & Gasoline Section
  3. Natural Gas Section
  4. Equities Of Interest (if any)
  5. Special Feature (if any)
  6. Holdings Watch
  7. Odds & Ends

The Special feature section will be an occasional download on coal, ethanol, solar etc. The Equities of Interest section will give updates on stocks I’ve reported on and am thinking about taking a position in as well as have links to new reports. If you have anything else you’d like to see now is the time to speak up. All requests will be looked into. At present we’re working on getting a live streamer for crack spreads and an automated system for position changes. As we transition to a subscription site I want to make sure that you, future subscriber, get more than your money’s worth!

If you’re on the fence about subscribing let me offer two options to you: 1) if you’ve been around for a while at the zmansenergybrain.com site (as a registered user) you’ll be eligible for a discounted rate when the site goes pay, and 2) portions of the site will remain free with an abridged daily post (probably the daily intro and the odds and ends section). Picks, the data tabs (crack spreads, natural gas storage, company specific reports, current holdings etc) and the ability access site commentary will be limited to  site subscribers.

Have A Great Weekend.

4 Responses to “Weekly Wrap – Week Ended 07/06/07”

  1. 1
    Sambone Says:

    Uhm, I have never paid for a site before. If I decide to go there, how does it work?

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Sambone,

    Via PayPal secure credit card payment. Month to month and quarterly (discount to the monthly rate). In the next couple of weeks I’ll be sending an email to those of you who have favored the site with your presence and comments for some time now with specific terms.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    Glad she’s safe but they apparently swapped her out for three foreigners:

    Armed men kidnapped three foreigners in oil-rich southern Nigeria on Sunday, local television reported, three days after a three year-old British girl was taken hostage in the same region.

    Channels Television said the men, believed to be either Lebanese or Chinese were seized from a compound in Port Harcourt and taken to an unknown location.

    The television quoted Rivers State police commissioner Felix Ogbaudu as confirming the kidnapping, but declining to give details.

    There was no immediate confirmation of the report from government and security officials and no group has claimed responsibility for the abduction.

    More than 200 foreigners have been taken hostage since January 2006, but most of them have been released unharmed.

  4. 4
    Sambone Says:

    Not much going on in the GOMEX at this time. Watching the waves come off Africa, and a small storm west of the islands, just north of SA.

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