27
Jun

Wednesday – Oil Inventory Day

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Newsflash: Citigroup slashes ratings on the refiners.
Let's get to the inventories:

Oil Inventory Expectations (from the Dow Jones and Bloomberg Surveys):

  • Crude: Expected UP 1.0 to 1.05 Million Barrels. Often we see large inventory numbers in one week reversed by lower numbers in the next. Last week's giant 6.9 mm barrel crude build was likely the result of the timing of offloadings along the gulf coast which came in "at the last minute". As such, barrels that normally would have been included in this week's number were counted in the prior week so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a lower crude number. However, if
  • Gasoline: Stocks expected UP 1.1 million barrels with refinery utilization recovering 0.8% to 88.4%.

Perma Bull Watch: Not to be left out of the mix perma bull Alaron analyst Phil Flynn said "0.8 and 1.1 are both dismal numbers." (Refiners) have a long way to go to make up for all the supplies they lost earlier in the year." And Flynn's not alone,  "Refineries are still operating anemically,'' said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research in Winchester, Massachusetts. "Prices won't fall too much until we see refinery activity pick up.'' Comment: what about the facts that:

  1. Production keeps going up despite the lower utilization numbers? Kevin Saville, managing editor for the Americas energy desk at Platts, the energy research arm of the McGraw-Hill Cos., notes that refiners are getting more gasoline out of each barrel of oil they process. I've been point this for weeks,
  2. Or that aggregate production is just short of an all time high despite the "dismal" utilization number.
  • Distillates: Expected UP 200,000 barrels.

Play of the day: Listen for it live on MN1.com between 9:25 and 9:40 CST this morning.

Crack Spread Showed Slight Firming Last Week. This week's action so far should more than offset but as much as I hate to admit it, real weakness in RBOB will only occur with higher utilization, even if multiple regions score production records.

cracks-vlo-062207.jpg

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: Citigroup cuts the refiners. (SUN) to hold, (VLO) and (TSO) to sell.
Holdings Watch: Open and Closed Positions Updated. See the ZEB Performance Tab.

  • Calls: Bought (EOG) June $75 calls for $1.45.  High correlation to oil. Stock's taken a bit of beating of late. Watching natural gas for a bottom and eying entries in (CHK), (KWK), and (SWN) among gassy names and for (HAL) in the service arena. I'm unlikely to act before Thursday's gas report on these.
  • Puts: No Action Yesterday: Continue to hold small (FTO) and (TSO) put positions. Watching utilization / production for a signal to add more and (TSO) which is again below it's split price and threatens to shave the massive recent gains of those investors who only know that they have something to do with gasoline. Now that I'm back and true to the adage about "money and mouth" I'll be looking for an entry in (VLO) calls for the pair trade.
  • Stocks: No Action Yesterday: Continue to like the action in (CLR) and (WHT) both up 13% in little over a month and minnow (SCU) - up 30% since I began acquiring this spring.  (END) continues to languish, down 24% but it's a long term hold trading at under 2.0x NTM CFPS so I'll wait them out. Considering taking a long in (HK) and writing calls against it.

Energy Sector TA Watch:

  • XOI -appear to have pretty strong support between 1,360 and 1,370, less than 2% below current levels
  • XNG - punched below it's 50 day sma yesterday but managed a close over 500. Good support is also within 2% of current levels between 490 and 495 and since my sense is that natural gas is closer to a bottom than a top I'm be looking for entry points on further weakness
  • OIH - looks like it needs to test 170 before moving higher. The deepwater drillers are likely to outperform once the group begins moving higher again which I think will correspond to a recover (or at least stabilization of natural gas prices).

Hugo's Not Our Boss Watch: From Bloomberg: Conoco Phillips will quit Venezuela after investing $2.5 billion in oil and natural gas projects as talks about ownership failed, said a person on the government's side of the negotiations. Exxon Mobil Corp. will also leave, the Wall Street Journal and Reuters reported, citing unnamed people familiar with the government and company positions in the negotiations. Comment: Venezuela claims production won't be negatively impacted by the removal of (COP and (XOM) as the remaing partners and the government pick up the two company's shares. I'd say it certainly won't help to have the two most technologically advanced players and the largest producer ((COP)) exit along with large check books.

76 Responses to “Wednesday – Oil Inventory Day”

  1. 1
    MMarkkk Says:

    Zman, I’m with you on the EOG trade but really take issue with the “high correlation to oil” conclusion. EOG’s reserves are 89% natural gas (as of 12/31/2006) and their 2006 production was 86% natural gas. And if you look at all of their major plays, they are almost all natural gas plays. So, EOG’s profit potential is highly leveraged to natural gas, not crude oil. They are, in fact, an also ran in the oil business but a “lead dog” in US natural gas and particularly in Shale Gas. Again, I like the trade, though, and think EOG will be a strong performer.

    And I hope production in Venezuela drops by 50% and the people rise up against the little socialist dictator as their public funds dry up!

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    MMarkkk – I’m very aware of their reserves and production profile. But they trade with oil, not gas. Just watch them. Some of their gas coming from Trinidad is priced to bunker fuel but that shouldn’t account for it. They don’t trade with the other gassy E&Ps like with SWN, KWK, CHK, BBG, but are more tied to the price of oil. I can’t explain it but it’s true.

  3. 3
    MMarkkk Says:

    I figured it was more of a technical trade. Maybe there’s an opportunity here if one can figure out a unique trading angle going forward. As one of their many competitors, I really have a lot of respect for what these guys have done in terms of positioning their portfolio.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    MMarkkk – I thought you were Mark Papa!!lol.

  5. 5
    MMarkkk Says:

    I wish! Let’s just say there are a few less zero’s at the end of my annual salary and my net worth!!!!

  6. 6
    T-Tupp Says:

    look at tso, gettin torn a new one!

  7. 7
    sane Says:

    RBOR draw was d/t blending components

    Sane

  8. 8
    sane Says:

    Gasoline imports were 1.1M
    Finished gasoline stocks were up 1.3M, but blending components were down 1.4M.

    Gasoline production was pretty much flat, and demand inched down a smidge.

    Distillates demand jumped pretty big.

    Sane

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    short bullish for refiners, considering the last few days drubbing. long term I think they’re lower.

    hideous set of data is right. obviously oil prices are still keying off gasoline and not the other way around.

    sold my TSO $57.50 July puts after the radio show for $3.30 and missed a buy on VLO…now I watching.

  10. 10
    sane Says:

    Straight gasoline imports were up, but blending component imports were down.

    Sane

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    xoi xng oih all fell into my support levels this morning and then bounced. XNG looking weaker still ahead of tomorrow’s gas number.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    FTO August $40 puts taken for $1.45.

    Still watching VLO for the other direction.

  13. 13
    sane Says:

    Nicky,

    They just lump it together all in one for distillates on products supplied, but it looks like draws straight through the distillates categories.

  14. 14
    sane Says:

    API Numbers

    The American Petroleum Institute reported a decline of 5.3 million barrels in motor gasoline supplies for the week ended June 22. The Energy Department had reported a fall of 700,000 barrels for the latest week. Distillate supplies were down 1.7 million barrels, the API said. The government reported that supplies were down 2.3 million barrels. Crude supplies climbed 2.4 million barrels, the API said. The government posted a 1.6 million-barrel rise

  15. 15
    Larry H Says:

    Zman,
    how bout an early estimate of what you expect natgas builds to look like tomorrow? Thanks.

  16. 16
    zman Says:

    Larry H – I’ll have it in an hour or so. Still catching up.

  17. 17
    H Says:

    Howdy All

    zman, I was hurrried when I tuned in ti your show this morning- Did I hear you guys say you were buying VLO-Xom-TSo, and you eog calls on the EID data? Please clerfy-Thanks You….

    PS on the email I just opened it and I am still drosey, so I will email back later TIA.

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    H –

    We were covering shorts and going long for a quick trade. I did take a closer to the money set of $40 puts on FTO and I didn’t get my VLO calls off.

    EOG was a call trade from yesterday which is pantsing me so far.

    Just took some HAL Jul $35 CALLS as well @ $0.55.

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Larry H – I’m having a tough time settling on a number as we had rising imports but also rising temps. My gut says 85 to 95 which is basically in line with the number Nicky put forward.

    OIL really happy about this number.

    HK should recover nicely now.

    EOG still thinking about making a run and I took the June $75s again at $1.15 to make a 2x position.

  20. 20
    H Says:

    Thank you Zman-I’m still drousy , just got up, but I could swear I heard some say look to go long vlo and xom calls, guess i try to listen to the recast-

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    H – that’s what we said for a trade when the data came out. Worked pretty well but you had to be fast to get a good price.

  22. 22
    Loren Says:

    Phil was saying long vlo, xom, and maybe tso if you could get it for a buck

  23. 23
    H Says:

    Zman I took the XTO July 60 C’s, at todays low-just a tad-

  24. 24
    H Says:

    Zman- give me a few of the NG names, I am def not with it today, …like eog then xto, and so on…Thank You Sorry to Have to Ask ! but I have A huge brain stop~

  25. 25
    Kevin Says:

    Z,

    Any opinion on coal plays right here,
    seems to be way off the highs. Considering
    BTU and ACI.

    Thanks,

    K

  26. 26
    H Says:

    Kevin…..BTU should follow, was gonna buy some calls yesterday- sorry I did not- for a trade-

  27. 27
    zman Says:

    H – CHK, SWN, KWK

    K – Coal is off with natural gas. I think we’re closer to the bottom but I was blindsided in my absence by an apparent downgrading of the hurricane threat this summer. BTU, ACI and I’d add ANR which just keeps inching higher.

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Nicky or anyone, have you seen any other numbers re nat gas consensus? tia.

  29. 29
    H Says:

    O yea ….thanks z…I got my brain back, belive it or not i just cannot hit a key on my watchlists when I am still asleep, which was the case today…doing better now….how embarssing to have to ask through when I know them all !!!

  30. 30
    H Says:

    So Z…I got too ask , whats your stratgy for the EOG calls, since I have its twin ( sort of ) the XTO J 60 call…what I mean are you feeling a little shaky, with the market setiment for the bunch right now ( iam ) and what are you summizing for tommorows NG reactions?

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    maybe a little shaky but I’m mostly in cash after my trip. That EOG is my biggest pos but it’s pretty small.

    NG reactions:
    <80 Bcf gas rallies
    80 to 90 Bcf - gas rallies mildly
    90 ot 100 Bcf - gas treads water
    > 100 Bcf – short term leg down which would be a buying opp.

    Man I wish I had been here to play the NOAA news last week.

    Anyone see a consensus number for tomorrow?

  32. 32
    H Says:

    I am gonna take a very simple approach to a guess on tommorows NG, thinking, -and i don’t too many are far from my thinking, at least its in everyones mix, but….with the very cool temps the last 2ish weeks and last week was cool, i would think Ng numbers are bearish- netural at best, and traders will see netural at best, but with things heating up, its a tossup, going to next week..

  33. 33
    H Says:

    OIH and XLE Cannot break todays highs, just oih is having trouble staying above the 175- and xle is having issues with 68.50! looks like players are not as gun happy with the bunch going back in after the drubbing–hm.

  34. 34
    zman Says:

    H

    At 59 CDDs (cooling degree days) it was the hottest week of the year to date. 4 more CDDs than normal but lower than year ago levels. More to the point that 16% more degree days than the prior week when we got a 89 Bcf injection.

    Nat gas accounts for about 20% of electricity generation so that directly yields an increase in gas demand.

    However, imports were up by land and by sea. I’m thinking 85 to 90 but I stand by the ranges for reaction given in post 46 and I’ll repeat those in tomorrow’s post.

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    temps for next 30 days from accuweather. looks pretty hot to me.
    http://www.accuweather.com/maps-temperature.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&site=us_&large=0&fday=4&type=temp

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Nicky – didn’t NOAA say much the same thing while I was out and that’s what tripped up natural gas? That La Nina will be slow to develop if at all and that it’s expected impact on Hurricanes (increasing the strength and number of them) was a big part of the prediction of more storms this season. Without that,gas deflated.

  37. 37
    SLM Says:

    Anyone want to bet on where Nat Gas for July finishes?

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    I also still don’t like the refiners even short term now as the draw in gasoline was blending and with the higher utilization you should get higher production next week.

    EIA just said that the unfinished oils are behind the higher production / lower utilization dichotomy although they didn’t talk about higher efficiency. They basically said that production may not rise in the event of a recovery in utilization. hmmm

  39. 39
    zman Says:

    Nicky – I hear you but most gas for generation is mid west, tx, rockies, west coast, all hot now and going forward that 30 day shows all areas hot.

    SLM – $7.01

  40. 40
    H Says:

    Hey Z…

    I know its a tiney tiny postion and- so I ask a small question reguarding it….On those eog calls, why eog? Don’t you think XTO has better underpinnings or presented( July 60’s ) a better offering for a trade opp? I did…in this market anyway…I think , at least I think I think?

    Gotta go ask some friends !

  41. 41
    MMarkkk Says:

    Nicky, in the winter the northeast is more important to the nat gas market. In the summer, that shifts to the midwest and west. In the winter, the heating demand is greatest in the east/northeast. In teh rockies, they have too much gas during th winter whereas the northeast still needs to import.

    In the summer, the demand in the northeast even at its hottest isn’t as great as the need in the midwest due to overall temp patterns.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    N

    Re northeast I’d add to MMarkk’s comment that the region continues to experience increased gassification. People are swapping out their basement oil storage tanks for piped gas. New construction is almost entirely piped gas heat.

  43. 43
    SLM Says:

    $6.75

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    N – and they’re right, we do have plenty of gas but that didn’t stop the last rally.

    There will be at least one big storm this summer, probably more, and that giant short overhang will bang gas higher more than you’d think.

    Also, much below here and some gas producers will announce curtailments. Rockies prices have traded under $2/Mcf in some parts! Get a press release like that out of say, CHK, and gas will rally shortly thereafter.

  45. 45
    H Says:

    Anyone here been in Solar stock, its been on a tear….I think I asked something about them here recently, but never got an answer, I been in a few names since last week in and out , and doing well, like fslr, jsao, plus i had brought tsl at 40 earlier in june…think i metioned it…am booking gains today going into the end and fed of week… their hot hot hto!

  46. 46
    MMarkkk Says:

    We have plenty of gas right now due to LNG imports which will probably continue to increase. The imports of gas from Canada are going down fast and will continue as drilling in Canada for gas is going through the floor and the use of gas in Canadian oil sands is skyrocketing.

    Big concern: the number of rigs drilling for nat gas has increase tremendously in the last 5 years but overall gas production in the US has held flat. We are running twice as fast to just stay even. And new wells drilled decline at rapid rates. Most of the new wells experience a 50-70% decline rate in the first year. So a well making 1000 MCF/day on Jan 1 will be producing 300-500 on Dec 31 if you are lucky. That’s what worries me. If prices drop below $5, watch how fast companies stop drilling and start shutting in wells. Aubrey at CHK did it last year and he and many others will do it again. If prices are over $7, rigs will run. Below $5, they get stacked. We are on a razors edge in the supply/demand angle.

    And don’t wait for Alaskan gas; we’ll all be old before the politicians figure that one out.

  47. 47
    zman Says:

    Mmarkkk – Well said. I couldn’t agree more with that. As far as gas rates go I’ve got dry gas production up about 1.0 Bcfgpd year through March. Biggest piece is Tx and it’s like you say, rig counts are through the roof there, especially the horizontal count. That’s shale and it high initial decline with a long, long tail. You’ve got to keep drilling to keep the growth up or you might as well just pack it into an MLP.

    Somebody just asked me about HNR on the other site. Here was my response. MMarkkk, let me know what you think of putting $10 on a take out of heavy oil reserves…I think it’s generous.

    HNR – I’d not go long. Kind of a complex way of getting paid. They’ve got a tentative agreement with the VZ govt to contnue to do business there. They’re almost entirely in Venezuela (all eggs in one crazy basket!) and as the guy who followed P and I on MN1.com this morning put it, the regime utterly lacks credibility so the deal may change.

    Just looking at the reserves post the Chavez deal (if they sign the docs without changing them) they will have about 44 mm boe of predominantly heavy oil. Put a value of $10 on it and you have the market cap of the company so it’s pretty fairly valued for the asset but not adequately for the geo pol risk.

    If anything I’d expect it to bleed off here unless oil goes higher. But like you said, it’s a spotty trader so I’d have to reject it as a play.

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    I can’t see $4. Think you’d see major curtailment announcements at $6. A lot of shale gas (where the growth is coming from) is not economic sub $6.

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Hey, you could definitely be right. I was thinking it would stay higher based on the funadamentals, not storage which of course looks bloated, but on what Mark was referring to…running to stand still…I’ll be putting out a piece over the weekend on just that topic.

  50. 50
    Larry H Says:

    Zman, thanks for the reply. I’m a long time CHK holder but also like RRC, XTO, and HK..I used to be in the business of prediction storage levels so i am always curious to see what various numbers are floating out there.. In general I think the market has yet to truly take into account the fall off in production from Canada that is happening now and will only continue to get steeper. Those reductions are serious and should be on everyones radar as much as storage numbers are, considering how much natgas we get from up there. I am taking all these natgas related dips to add long exposure. By the way, your website is one of the best industry blogs out there, thanks for your continued diligence and willingness to share your thoughts.

  51. 51
    zman Says:

    Nicky – agreed. Pendulum swings way to far in both directions. It looks to me like its waiting on tomorrow’s data now but putting in a short term bottom. I’m no where near your league in TA but I’d say that shorts will be happy with this move and have their finger on the cover trigger on tomorrow’s data.

    Also, the CPC’s prediction for cooling degree days this week is 68 which is another big jump on a week to week basis and should drive the injection below 80 unless LNG imports just explode. They’ll be watching that pretty closely as well with August gas having fallen from over $8 to just under $7 in 10 trading days!

  52. 52
    zman Says:

    Larry H – I used to get paid to do it as well. Are those options or stocks? Thanks for the compliment…I really appreciate that.

    Nicky – thoughts on RBOB?

    Out for 20 minutes.

  53. 53
    H Says:

    Hey Z both XTo and EOG looking good now–

  54. 54
    MMarkkk Says:

    Nicky and Z, your comments on Ngas over-correcting are spot on. And when it dropped to $4 in Sept 06, you saw what happened and how long it took to bounce off of $4 and get right back into the $7 range. I think that’s the same kind of activity I’d see. Week to week you may see $4 or $5, but you won’t see it over a sustained period of time. In fact, $4 is a screaming buy signal.

    HNR – rather not say much as I have a very good friend in a very high place. Only thing I’d say is any contract/agreement with the loco luny Chavez isn’t worth the paper its written on. And, I didn’t think HNR’s reserves were heavy oil. But I could be wrong on that point. I don’t follow it as an investment, mainly because its focused 99.9% in the socialist republic of Chavez-nistas.

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Thanks Mark – I could be wrong on the heavy, that was a slip as I’ve had the Orinoco on the mind.

  56. 56
    zman Says:

    Sold my EOG bought this morning at $1.15 for $1.50. 30% gain in 4.5 hours. Still have the ones I picked up yesterday at $1.45.

  57. 57
    Larry H Says:

    Zman,
    to answer your question, re: options or stock.. with CHK I tend to hold alot of the Jan 09 leaps, some of the 35s some of the 40s and some of the 45s. I think by 2009 the company will be trading much much higher than 45 and I like that kind of leveraged bet. With RRC the option premiums are way too high, but nice for a little covered call writing. HK, at this point I just buy the shares. Nice trade on EOG by the way… LH

  58. 58
    scoop006 Says:

    Z
    congrats. on EOG but the VLO trade was was the best I’ve seen in quite a while.
    Looking good on XTO too.

  59. 59
    rol lew Says:

    Larry….
    re: “options or stock.. CHK vs RRC…
    With RRC the option premiums are way too high, but nice for a little covered call writing….”
    Question: How do you compare the option prices? I checked the IV’s of both…. RRC > CHK, also the prices for option calls & leaps again RRC > CHK, but stock price for RRC > CHK 37.03 vs 35.20 …. is just “eyeballing” it enough?

  60. 60
    rol lew Says:

    H re “Solar stock, its been on a tear…”
    There is a mixed bag in addition to fslr 89, tsl 48…
    DSTI 6.67, ESLR 9.13, SPWR 63.72, STP 36.42
    no position…

  61. 61
    gastrader Says:

    The sep 06 move in natgas to a 4 handle was 100% a result of Amaranth calling around trying to unload a 100k long position…although the hurricane season was a bust, if Amaranth didn’t have that position on – NG would barely have broken 6.00 to the downside. Once John Arnold and JP Morgan got those calls, they knew how to take care of it.

  62. 62
    Larry H Says:

    rol lew,
    good question. In regards to comparing options premiums for CHK vs. RRC I actually do a bit of eyeballing rather than try to calculate actual greeks and IVs. for instance, when both stocks were at 37, which happened early last week for CHK, and is right now for RRC, the CHK January 09 calls with 45 strike were still trading at 3 or under. If you look at the same calls for RRC they are over 4. Both options are a bet on the same percentage move up during the same time period but RRC’s are about 25-30% more expensive. for that type of premium on stocks which i think both have the potential to easily be above 45 in 2 years, i would rather write covered calls on the RRC premium and go long the CHKs.. but thats just my methodology.. hope this answers your question.

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