15
Jun

Wrap – Week Ended 06/15/07

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wrap-061507.jpg

Energy Sector Continues To Run.  I've been calling for firm to higher oil and lower gasoline prices for some time now. I got half of that order. I've gone into my reasoning about this gasoline rally being a bit of a speed bump and the whole utilization vs production issue some I'm not going to repeat myself until the 25th. I'd like to add that I'm pretty surprised by the magnitude of the rebound in RBOB because it provides fodder for my critics on Seeking Alpha who think that most things surprise me. Pretty much everything went up with oil and the expected (see Wednesday morning's gas call) upward move in natural gas prices. Especially the OIH.

CFTC Natural Gas Short Record Achieved. According to CFTC data, both the speculative short and net short positions reached all time highs this past week. As I've often said, I view the net short number as a contrarian indicator...as in I see this is pretty bullish for natural gas prices as these folks will start to give up on this bet the further we get into hurricane season or face Amaranth status.

cftc-061207.jpg

Natural Gas Rig Rebound. We're back to the 21 year high for rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States. Very good for the OIH.

Gang thanks for reading and I'll see you soon. Have a GREAT week!

81 Responses to “Wrap – Week Ended 06/15/07”

  1. 1
    bill fraser Says:

    The short int in NG is the best bullish factor, and one must be cautious on the short side

    Im neutral at the moment but would be tempted to sell gas above 8.15

  2. 2
    SLM Says:

    Man, Nigeria sucks!

  3. 3
    Joe Says:

    Any ideas on what is driving WNR up 4.5%? Other refiners are doing ok, but not that well.

  4. 4
    T-Tupp Says:

    that stock always does that (wnr). one thing is that their is only lie 68 million shares outstanding so if a few big buyers can substantially move the stock. also, it may be in a position to acquire new refining assets and a select few are bidding it up– although i haven’t heard anything about that.

    one thing though is that it has one of the highest PE’s and PCF’s in the entire subsector.

  5. 5
    T-Tupp Says:

    so it is basically like a time bomb lol. careful trading more than 25 contracts of the options at a time…

  6. 6
    T-Tupp Says:

    nicky where do you think rbob will be for inv. wednesday?

  7. 7
    T-Tupp Says:

    wed b4 inv

  8. 8
    T-Tupp Says:

    imports could have been a blip last week like Z said

  9. 9
    Joe Says:

    Thanks T-Tupp. I am looking for potential shorts in the not to distant future. I don’t know WNR much, just looking for a trade.

    I really like the time bomb comment.

    Thanks.

  10. 10
    Denver Says:

    Thanks Nicky, glad your holding down the fort.

  11. 11
    Joe Says:

    Thanks Nicky for keeping it going this week. We are still out here!

  12. 12
    bill fraser Says:

    i am buying ng in the low 7.50’s. As you pointed out, it has held out as an interim low with up to 70 cent up moves afterwards.

    i think the new trading range is 7.50 to 8

  13. 13
    SLM Says:

    If gas hits 103 tomorrow, 7.25.

  14. 14
    Popeye Says:

    Crude build huge.

  15. 15
    sane Says:

    The American Petroleum Institute reported a climb of 465,000 barrels in crude supplies for the week ended June 15. The Energy Department had reported a jump of 6.9 million barrels for the latest week. Motor gasoline supplies were up 933,000 barrels, the API said. The government reported that supplies of the fuel were up 1.8 million barrels. Distillate supplies climbed 1 million barrels, the API said. The government posted a 100,000-barrel rise

  16. 16
    T-Tupp Says:

    anyone know what imports were?

  17. 17
    sane Says:

    Imports

    10.8M Crude
    1.3M Gasoline
    255K Distillate

  18. 18
    p.wilmington Says:

    If gasolene imports are up 1.3, but stocks are up 1.8, that means that we produced an extra .5 domestically. But utilization of domestic refining capacity was down almost 2 % points.

    Perhaps I’m missing something, but it looks to me as one of these numbers has to be off.

  19. 19
    p.wilmington Says:

    OOPS! Yes, I did miss something, concumption – demand – could have dropped off. Is there any other explanation?

  20. 20
    H Says:

    Hello All!

    N- O have a favor to ask , since I’m very bad at math…

    I wanna breakdown the OIH stk, P/E,
    can you help? I would like to know the top holdings and what the account for on a share count of the oih, –

  21. 21
    H Says:

    N- great job your doing!

    If my question is a little unclear, how would you figure the P/E on OIH….

  22. 22
    Popeye Says:

    H, Yahoo finanace shows a P/E of 11.06.

  23. 23
    H Says:

    Thanks P-Pie !

    what I want is to know the share count of the OIH or what each company weihting is in OIH, then to know what the P/E is like from that? I think its higher then yahoo-

    How is CNBC spinning todays gas and oil number, that uliterazion nimber is low-

  24. 24
    H Says:

    Nigerian general strike underway

  25. 25
    cowboy Says:

    H, see if this helps …
    http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/holdings.asp?ETF=true&Symbol=OIH

  26. 26
    H Says:

    Nicky….Nicky….Nicky________

    NG lets look at the whether, its not been to hot, so demand has not been up in the killerwhat market, it we get a hot spell, and the HHH letters start to show in the whether reports, then it will fly ..as far as support with contracts changing hands and the onset of summer yea it has support and a drop below it will be a buy opp!

  27. 27
    H Says:

    well….I see coal going south, and xle and oih looks like it wants to sell down some, i think that we get a few days of selling in the comples, before more dip’ers come in and buy them up again-

  28. 28
    H Says:

    2:38PM EST——–look out below!!!!!

  29. 29
    H Says:

    brought somw MA CROX AND FSLR Puts !

  30. 30
    H Says:

    OT: I brought my MA p”s today for 3.60 got out at 4.7— nice gain for a few hours, took a small gain on the crox, and a very smal loss on fslr …all in all out of all of them for now, with a very decent gain, for a few hours of trading them

  31. 31
    H Says:

    Nicky, OIH not going up- I guess they don’t think its NOT priced in , but who trusts them and their press releases, they change like the weather, so i guess we wait to see it in the morning….whats cnbc saying?

  32. 32
    H Says:

    Anyone think oih is gonna get beating over the next few sessions? ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????!

  33. 33
    H Says:

    That post got messed up, the question was , anyone think the OIH is going south over the next few days?

  34. 34
    H Says:

    These suckers were dreadfully overbrought in the past few sessions , during the bounce back from the bond thingy! OIH and XLE…..biunced and made new highs…don’t care about oil!

  35. 35
    H Says:

    N- you should do some T&A on the two etf’s to go side by side with your product TA ( I mean OIH and XLE )

  36. 36
    H Says:

    N- I agree 100%, to me as of late till now the market looked good on the surface, but I saw and see signs of weekness!

  37. 37
    H Says:

    thanks for the opine n!

  38. 38
    bill fraser Says:

    The market has priced in 103 for NG.

    Anything lower, and we fly fly away, imho

    Nicky , good call on support numbers, I will pay more attention to technicals in the future.

    the shorts will cover as we close the week as the july’s must be rolled over to aug soon

  39. 39
    bill fraser Says:

    I look for a build below 103 with ng rallying

    warmer weather is forecasted which would be bullish for prices

    http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/tendayforecastusnational/index_large.html?clip=undefined&region=undefined&collection=localwxforecast&presname=undefined

  40. 40
    Popeye Says:

    And that is a build. Thanks for all your efforts Nicky.

  41. 41
    bill fraser Says:

    i thought consensus was 103.

    today they low balled it from 85 to 95 and 89 came in.

    cnbc had a guy (jarvis) who is short the market.

    NG should have soared on the news

    anyways, i still expect a rally from these lows

  42. 42
    H Says:

    Hey N- and Co.

    Great posts today considering the yawn in the markets, N- you must be like Sam on Bewichted, Exactly what I wanted to know, Thanks ! and not surprised at all !

  43. 43
    H Says:

    N- I can’t say enough good things about your T&A- It is great to have it, like trading/investing with the FDNY sitting right with you, as to put out anything before it gets a chance to happen….BUT-

    I think you should do wider T&A, like whatever is or has been moving the markests, IE. leadership sectors, or how about TLT and the yeild, thats been in the mix, and would be good to know T&A on this stuff as a daily thing-

    now, I think that the GOV in Nigera, will overturn/slash the fuel tax in speedy time, its showmanship on both sides, to achive greater goals, so this issue ( lol ) will settle fast…however mend and co, live on and strong, which gives cnbc something to chime about…ie oil.

  44. 44
    H Says:

    So much for the yawn! I just tuned in for the day, and saw at 11am things were flateish, then I just tooke a second gander, and see this selling, what up? anyone?

  45. 45
    H Says:

    Yup and yup and yup…between PSW and Zman its covered, but its good to have you jump in on the news of the day -with some TA prespective when possiable….

  46. 46
    H Says:

    OT:

    My calls, yesterday of buying puts on MA FSLR and CROX worked out just dandy-, especially the MA put when it was cranking to and over 168-..to bad I dumped them to soon..but it was ment to take advantage of a short term selloff-in the indices!

  47. 47
    H Says:

    Wils swings today on the xle and oih’s….I like an idot brought some JUL 70 XlE Calls yesterday…below where they are trading now…

  48. 48
    H Says:

    crazy day! Hello first day of summer!!

  49. 49
    H Says:

    Somebody-N-Please give me the news ( I don’t have cable, and the dowjones streamer is stinky ) whats CNBC, saying now?

  50. 50
    H Says:

    N – ?

  51. 51
    H Says:

    N
    If I can ask do you have a live number on RBOC HO And Oil?

  52. 52
    H Says:

    Hello Out Yander- Anyone have anything to say/report?

  53. 53
    H Says:

    Well, Nicky, Nicky….Nicky…..Looks like its come back thursday….~

  54. 54
    El Diablo Says:

    Anybody hear if Bear is in nat gas or crude? Amaranth blowup last year was spectacular, nat gas looks like its trying for an encore. Somebody is on the ropes….

  55. 55
    sane Says:

    Hey El,

    long time no see.

    Sane

  56. 56
    El Diablo Says:

    Yea, I’ve been lurking, not posting

    Still bearish though!

  57. 57
    El Diablo Says:

    Seems everyone is sold on the idea of just buy energy and wait for a hurricane; they’ll mint money. If only it were that simple…

  58. 58
    Sambone Says:

    Putting in stops on RIG at 98. Been quite a ride.

  59. 59
    sane Says:

    😛

    My gut feeling on Bear is that they might be in gas, but not so much in oil. If i remember correctly they had probably the most bearish analysis of oil out of all the prognosticators.

    Sane

  60. 60
    sane Says:

    Personally I hope we get another dull hurricane season, just to punch the hurricane cheerleading squad in the gut.

    Sane

  61. 61
    El Diablo Says:

    Ditto Nigeria and Iran. Talk about worn out headlines. How many times have Nigerian workers held strikes in past year? 10? not ‘news’.

    this is all just reality-avoidance. Nigeria can stop producing altogether if US economy grows less than 1.5% this year.

  62. 62
    El Diablo Says:

    RE: Bear, when are these ‘hedge’ funds gonna learn? They have highly leveraged bets in many, ‘uncorrelated’ markets, thinking they’re diversified and hedged. Yet a blowup in one single market can sink the whole ship. See: LTCM, Amaranth, etc… Smartest people in the world…

  63. 63
    sane Says:

    I love when they say “uncorrelated markets”. I had a prof tell me a long time ago, “All markets are correlated, most just don’t want to admit it.”

    Sane

  64. 64
    H Says:

    N- buyers are scared– BearStearns_Bond Yeilds_ ect ect….how long its gonna last..Z Million $ ? !

  65. 65
    Another Phil Says:

    Happy Birthday Nicky!

  66. 66
    H Says:

    Whops——-

    HAPPY BIRTHDAY NICKY!

    The Finest Looking T&A ANALYST I EVER SEEN–

    Can I call you the TA babe?

  67. 67
    H Says:

    CRAZY RANGE TRADING THIS WEEK ON THE COMPLEX ETS’s XLE,OIH!~

  68. 68
    scoop006 Says:

    MS.NICKY BEST WISWHES TO THE BIRTHDAY GIRL.
    THANKS FOR YOUR EFFORTS IN KEEPING US INFORMED.

  69. 69
    H Says:

    I double that. scoope! Happy B Day Again, and a hefy thanks for keeping us informed…N

    N thanks for adding the indexs today–

  70. 70
    H Says:

    whats that song….with the lerics “very strange indeed”? well that fits this weeks action !

  71. 71
    karmcon Says:

    Stocks in Oil Services HOLDRS (OIH)

    Name
    Ticker Weighting
    Baker Hughes Incorporated
    BHI
    10.29%

    BJ Services Company
    BJS
    4.82%

    Cameron International Corp
    CAM
    3.33%

    Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc
    DO
    6.12%

    ENSCO International Incorporated
    ESV
    3.94%

    Grant Prideco Inc
    GRP
    3.02%

    Globalsantafe Corp
    GSF
    8.10%

    Halliburton Company
    HAL
    9.29%

    Hanover Compressor Co
    HC
    0.76%

    Nabors Industries Ltd
    NBR
    4.97%

    Noble Corporation
    NE
    5.98%

    National Oilwell Varco Inc
    NOV
    3.95%

    Rowan Companies, Inc
    RDC
    1.86%

    Transocean Inc
    RIG
    10.50%

    Smith International, Inc
    SII
    5.24%

    Schlumberger Limited
    SLB
    10.13%

    Tidewater Inc
    TDW
    1.97%

    Weatherford International Lt
    WFT
    5.74%

    H Saw you looking for the % holdings in OIH the other day….you are going to have to look up the PE or EPS for the stocks though 😉

  72. 72
    H Says:

    Nigerian + Iran = wins it for the bulls!!

    NG on hold till the heat picks up in the east and some other areas thats still cool….

    Valuations are Not in question,- wait and see-

    Have a fun birthday and cool weekend.

  73. 73
    H Says:

    Thanks karmcon !

  74. 74
    Nicky Says:

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – BP Plc (BP.L) expects to restart on Monday 10,000 barrels per day of Alaskan oil production at its giant Prudhoe Bay oil field, halted June 18 for a pipe leak, a BP spokesman said.

    ADVERTISEMENT

    BP shut part of the 400,000 bpd field after workers discovered a small leak in a 24-inch diameter flow line, said BP Alaska spokesman Daren Beaudo.

    The leak spilled less than a gallon of crude oil onto a gravel pad. No oil was spilled on the tundra, Beaudo said.

    Flow lines carry a mixture of crude oil, water and natural gas from wells to one of six separation plants at Prudhoe Bay.

    BP is currently replacing an 80-foot (24 meter) section of the flow line. Repairs are expected to be completed by Monday.

  75. 75
    Stephen Says:

    Haven’t been here in a while, but the drillers have been going crazy, RIG and DO going up in a down market.

    I know you guys won’t like me saying it, but do you think the momentum will switch out of the refiners and into the drillers. Most of the refiners are up 50% YTD, while drillers are up 30% YTD.

    Although, now that I check, FTO is still going strong.

  76. 76
    Popeye Says:

    Hello ZEB, everyone on vacation?

  77. 77
    Sambone Says:

    When is Z coming back? As Nicky said, I thought he would be back today. Looks like some profit taking in the oil/gas patch today. Oh well, yawn, another day.

  78. 78
    H Says:

    Hello All!

    Solar stocks seem to be the hot energy ones the past week, anyone know anything about them( tsl fslr etc. ) and why they are hitting all time highs in the past couple sessions? TIA for the insights~

  79. 79
    sane Says:

    manipulation station

  80. 80
    Popeye Says:

    OIH heading south.

  81. 81
    Popeye Says:

    Ok, time for the lawyers, guns and money.

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