15
Jun

Honduras (June 16 – 24)

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No CNBC, No Internet, No Cellphone.

Just jungle and beach. 

A little bit about the country from Wiki. and from the State Department.

In Thursday's piece I laid out my prognostications for the coming little bit of time I'll be away. So far so good re natural gas and OIH. Not to worry just yet on the bounce in gasoline as it was out-percentaged by the move in oil.

Odds & Ends 

T Boone plans worlds largest wind farm in Texas. 4,000 Megawatts - that's about the size of four good sized nukes! With an estimated $6 billion price tag there's got to be a play here aside from GE, Siemens, or Mitsubishi; players that are so big it won't nudge their share prices! Maybe it's Dutch global wind turbine leader Vestas. Somebody figure this out while I'm away! Here's a detailed list of wind projects in the U.S. to date.

Addax Petroleum Watch: I was going over some notes and realized I hadn't checked in lately on my favorite Swiss E&P. Recall that these guys are a rapid grower with production primarily coming from Nigeria, then Gabon and with a pretty tasty gig in Iraq. The third Taq-Taq well tested at an unstimulated rate of 18,900 bpd on choke. The fourth out of six wells planned for delineation of the Taq-Taq structure is currently drilling. To see all my reports on Addax look here.

The natural gas storage page has been updated with my latest thoughts. In a nutshell I think gas will be range bound, at least during the next little bit, between $7.60 and $8.20 although I think it may rally towards and then bounce off $8 in volatile trading.

I'll be around in the morning from time to time but with less frequency as the day wears on so if you need something ask early.

I'll see you on the 25th. Have a Great Weekend and Week Ahead. If you don't hear from me by the 26th send lawyers, guns, and money...

Z

67 Responses to “Honduras (June 16 – 24)”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

    Lije – don’t know if you saw my answer from last night so here it is again.

    Lije – I know you’re off the trade but I thought I’d give my opinion as if you weren’t for illustrative purposes. I definitely would not go with a long straddle as the name is just not that volatile and you’re subject to pinning action close to expiry.

    I might use one of those around the date of PQ’s Atchafalaya well announcement in 3Q07 once I pin that date pretty closely down.

    As a rule, Long Straddle = Big events WITH a stock that’s not always volatile but historically capable of great volatility.

    Perhaps you were thinking short straddle. That probably makes more sense for pinning time but it is a bit of gamble with much the same unlimited loss/limited return aspects of short selling. As I rule I don’t do these because I once had some bad luck with them but I know people who make very nice, very quick profits playing this game close to expiry. It’s that one unexpected PR that kills you here.

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    KWK – increasing the size of the IPO of it’s gas gathering and processing unit. Shouldn’t be bad for the stock to further monetize a somewhat “hidden” asset. Proceeds are earmarked for a cash distribution to shareholders and for working capital. The size of the deal was upped by roughly a third. Should move the stock.

    Speaking of things that should move stocks, SFY’s sale of NZ should move those shares slowly higher over the next few months.

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    TLM = deal approved for TLM’s Rev gas and condensate field in the North Sea. Pretty significant piece of production and reserves.

  4. 4
    H Says:

    I ‘ll be looking to buy somw s&p july 150/152 puts , some not much!

  5. 5
    H Says:

    I brought JUL 152 P’s @ 1.55-

  6. 6
    Stephen Says:

    I built up a list of wind power stocks.

    Nordex Ag
    Vestas Wind Systems
    RePower Systems

    None are listed in the US, these are listed in Germany and Denmark, all three have doubled in the past year, Goldman bought into Nordex Ag and have made a good profit.

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    CLR broke $16

    SFY working,

    DEEP wow!

    PQ and HK still working but I think they need a breather.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Go SCU Go

  9. 9
    homan Says:

    great put calls on this uptrend how much are you up very funny how smart people could constantly call the market wrong its comedic. keep shorting or buying puts you fail to realize the foolishnes of perpetual shorting a market is comical especially when its making a huge up move. markets are nonnormal driven by power laws go read the black swan. keep shorting its sad to see a brillant mind being blown away by the stock market.

  10. 10
    H Says:

    Who’s brillant ?

    and I also brought CLF calls yesterday as a economy/market play, it should have stopped going south and headed back up, today it did, and I am up upup, the puts can wait till next week, If I am gonna short I rather do it while its still in the air!

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    homan – what do you think I’m short? A very small position it TSO, FTO, MRO. That’s it. The gains in the longs more than cover the hit there. Of course, your concern is very touching.

  12. 12
    sane Says:

    Hey nickey,

    Have you looked at the elliot wave on a historical chart.

    Sane

  13. 13
    sane Says:

    Nicky,

    I was looking at the wave on a historical chart, and agree with you about a substantial wave up coming, and then retracting to lower lows than in January. On a historical perspective it looks like we are already in wave 5 which could take us into the mid 80’s, but I am just an amateur at chart reading :P.

    Sane

  14. 14
    H Says:

    CLF JUL 21, 2007 $ 85.000 CALL , in at 1.40 out at 2.55 gain 82%- and it was a decent postion! we!

  15. 15
    H Says:

    Zman, I think Homan was talking about me in the s&P puts I jumped into a little early this morning!

  16. 16
    Popeye Says:

    It’s nice we don’t get too many peeps in here throwing rocks. A refreshing change from the usual stock boards and egos.

  17. 17
    H Says:

    I took a nice gain on my CLF call, I think I am early in the S&P, looking at next weeks economic calender , I think I see a good chance that their will be more bullish reaction to things like housing starts and building prmits, because they been so week expections are inline and low, so they can cheer it as not getting worse! HA HA HA , plus leading indicators were down the last read and should have a bounce…so O imay dump my puts and reenter on the next leg up later on in the new week-

  18. 18
    H Says:

    Hey I’m already up 5 cents on the SP Puts….double wee

    Anyone think I can hold for a gain today?

    Sorry I did not have time to post yesterday my CLF call, I was busy doing some DD on it just before the close…

  19. 19
    sane Says:

    Thanks N,

    I personally was having a hard time reading if 4 ended, so I kinda just guessed. It is easy to see things that have already passed, but more difficult to read the current.

    Sane

  20. 20
    sane Says:

    I personally not fond of rock throwing either. 🙂

    Sane

  21. 21
    H Says:

    I like throwing kados~ and mud on myself at the beech, then going in the water !

  22. 22
    scoop006 Says:

    H-WELL DONE CONGRATS.

  23. 23
    H Says:

    hey CLF is an indursterial / metal/ steal/ whatever builds things play, and it was up big from hype of buyout, then cracked, but cracked to the low point , when everything in the space was bouncing back..from the bond scare, but for some reason, this did not and to me should have stopped going down,,, so I jumped on them

  24. 24
    H Says:

    Nicky_ Do you have a live quote on the three? Ho RBOB and pick an oil! Thank You-

  25. 25
    zman Says:

    CRK keeps moving higher. Strange level on the bid for my June 30 calls. Well below intrinsic.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    Natural gas -drifting higher.

  27. 27
    H Says:

    not up 5 just flat on my sp puts..mistake…my eyeballs need to rest somethimes when Im excited!

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    NFX – out June 50 calls for a nice loss. Botched that easy trade. hmmmpppff

  29. 29
    H Says:

    Z MRo is flying, you thinks some july puts are gonna look intresting if it moves another point or two nest week?

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    All time high OIH. Looks like it’s getting a little pinning action for today. Next week bet we see 180 test.

  31. 31
    zman Says:

    H – I’d rather wait to see the inventory numbers and some of this momentum die.

  32. 32
    bill fraser Says:

    You couldnt give natural gas away 2 days ago at 7.60, now everyone is tripping over themselves to buy at 7.94.

    Im going to short above 8.10

  33. 33
    H Says:

    Yes, z- just asking, I agree!

  34. 34
    H Says:

    Iran said something to underpin product prices, like they should remain higher this year, but the folks over in Nigeria are getting good vibes from the new prez, so who knows maybe 1 day they will start pumping oil for more then 1 day~

  35. 35
    T-Tupp Says:

    homan- save that crap for the bullboards– not in here. i havent seen any brilliance from you… no do you express your trades to this blog so maybe our mad at your dad or something, but theirs always a good vibe in here so dont blow it.

    btw if you want to go on a rant learn to put together a cogent sentence

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Out of second half of CHK position for $2.20. Thought that was a goner as it had the higher cost at $1.85. Funny (sad) thing is its a 19% gain, almost identical to the 18% gain on the first lot which I sold for a buck but bought for $0.85. Timing is everything.

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    SFY – new 52 week high.

  38. 38
    H Says:

    Nicky- from a TA perspective , says buy -buy any and all momo move, but caution may be in the wind still- next week may just add some better signal, right now the markets clues are too one lop sided to the bullish retracement to give any real intermediate picture ..

  39. 39
    H Says:

    Zman, did post anything on CLF yesterday,I was kinda hurried for the time because of my research,… its flying today as I expected, wish I had more calls and wish I held them a few more hours!

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    H – that’s great. I only keep 1% of my two eyes on metals. What’s the 2 minute download on the industry.

  41. 41
    scoop006 Says:

    Z- Where ‘s the top for refiners.?

  42. 42
    H Says:

    Back up with the ” everything OK DOKIE Round The World in sixty seconds story” the world is a place filled with 24/7 road crews, construstion, manufacting, mineing, and anything that takes basic inputs!( really i was a momo bounce, is that a bad thing ) ?

  43. 43
    H Says:

    Zman metal demand is high a la x aa cbi etc. and it should contiun that w ay as compines are controlling Supply and demand, theirfore they have pricing power plus attrictive valuations! ( lol)

  44. 44
    zman Says:

    scoop – I’m the last guy you should ask!

    July 4? I’ll tell you that this is an over-reaction to Wednesday numbers.

    For instance, average the last two week’s of builds (3.5 and 0) = 1.75/week. Consensus was 1.5 in the first week and 1.5 to 1.7 last week. That means that over the two week period we’re higher than where we thought we’d be. That’s somewhat specious logic given that this week’s 1.5 mm barrel build was mad after last week’s 3.5 mm barrel build but you get my point.

    Moreover, this focus on utilization is absurd. It’s a meaningless number. Production continues to rise. East coast production actually hit an all time record.

    Demand growth…the rate of growth is slowing.

    Imports … the real unknown…. are they done coming across the ocean to get the fat US prices. I doubt it yet. European demand should not have really kicked in yet. It’s coming and that may be an issue but by then you’d think the refiners would be producing even more.

    Next week we need to see if gasoline imports rebound AND we need to see that Utility number start to move back north of 90%. It’s infuriating to read all these analysts/traders saying how we should be at 94to95% this year when much of the outages are at units not involved with directly producing gasoline and production continues to RALLY.

  45. 45
    H Says:

    any have a clue to why FSLR had a good week ? I am to pooped to try to figure it out? ! and really I don’t care to look at winners I missed only to find , the writing was on the wall, and I had blindfolders on…! TIA.

    I think it energy back up- they need it up to go up, common sense-

  46. 46
    H Says:

    I would be very intrest to see what would happen to the majors,refiners and especially service, if this was late july and all the commidity prices were the same as today, and earnings wiuld be comming out on these compaines……..VERY INTRESTED!

  47. 47
    H Says:

    Is their a hurricane I missed today-

  48. 48
    zman Says:

    H – not that I’ve seen but you can always check the weather tab above left which contains some pretty useful links.

    There is a low forming over central America but that just means I’m going to get rained on, not a big blow!

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    Here’s the storm track on that system that this point they don’t think will become a storm.

    http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=94

  50. 50
    sane Says:

    Rig count up again

    Sane

  51. 51
    H Says:

    Thanks Z ,

  52. 52
    H Says:

    BTW ….enjoy your trip !

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Thanks I will.

    WTO.To up 6% on talk Total is thinking about buying the oil sands producer.

    Can’t be bad news for little BQI to have talk out talks in the Canadian oil sands arena brewing. Of course, it’s up 6% today too.

  54. 54
    zman Says:

    Thanks sane. Gas rigs popped back up the 19 they lost last week. Back to the 21 year (at least) high.

  55. 55
    H Says:

    what a breakout!

  56. 56
    sane Says:

    Reuters Article

    HAL cutting prices d/t competition?

    Sane

  57. 57
    H Says:

    intresting read, Sane. it gose to show the demand for their service and the visabilty of their revunes! ( the companies ) Hal has scale- so I would not make anything other then a bullish viwe of the company- But I would not hold on earnings day ( well maybe this Q I would ) lol!

  58. 58
    rol lew Says:

    NFX – CALLS – 2:25
    – stock 50.10/ 50.11 up .30
    – jul 50 calls .. down .05
    – sept 45 calls .. up .20
    – sept 50 calls .. unchanged
    – jul 50 calls .. up .10

    why would the jul 50’s be DOWN??

  59. 59
    H Says:

    The wind farm play ZOLT….but to me its up tomuch I WOULD RATHER SHORT IT OR BUY SOME PUTS, Carbon is whats needed for those blades…on the little dutch windmill !

  60. 60
    zman Says:

    rol lew. doesn’t make much sense unless its just implied volatility drying up.

    Look at my CRK 30 June calls bid $1.10 with the stock at $31.50 and quite a bit of open interest still around that doesn’t make sense. At this rate I’ll exercise them and put an order in to sell the stock.

  61. 61
    zman Says:

    Thanks H – that’s a good thought re the wind farm.

  62. 62
    H Says:

    Zman, I hope you and the Fam really have a great time, I don’t see how theirs anything better then going with the fam on a trip…enjoy!

    N thanks for all the good help, and have a great weekend !

    EVERYONE>. Have A nice weekend.

  63. 63
    Sambone Says:

    Put stop at 39 on my ENOC for 1/2 my postion.

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    Thanks H – flying solo on this one…little too remote for the family.

    Sambone – Nice move!

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    out my 2x EOG $80 calls for $0.50.

  66. 66
    H Says:

    yea, I was wondering why you would bring the wife and kids to hondous! its more of a anventure trip- so doublr enjoy!

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Gang – have a great weekend and week ahead.

    Please keep the site alive while I’m gone. I may post a week wrap if I get a chance tonight.

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