31
May

Thursday – Simultaneous Oil & Natural Gas Reports

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Oil Recovered Slightly Yesterday After Further Unrest In Nigeria Surfaced. You knew it was too good to be true. New leader=everybody's happy? No way.

Gasoline Continued To Fall. CNBC of course blamed profit taking and contract expiry. It couldn't be all those tankers queued up in the GOM full of gasoline could it?

Oil Inventory Report Preview: (from the Reuters survey)

  • Crude: up 700,000 barrels.
  • Gasoline: up 1.3 million barrels. If imports recover this number could be very light. Pre-holiday demand, which would be in this number is unlikely to result in the large withdrawals that are pulling this consensus down.

Natural Gas Was On A Rampage Yesterday Stopping Just Short Of $8. Hey CNBC, you need to get a new tape of wind tearing off roofs. I've got the shingle count down on all of your current reels. The only thing I saw yesterday that explained the $0.22 rally in natural gas was a low pressure system that formed just west of Cuba. All forecasters at present agree that the storm will only amount to much needed rainfall in Florida over the weekend as it slow heads east. Development to even a tropical depression is not expected.

Here's a cool shot of it from the Mexican version of NOAA:

cozumel-storm.jpg

Natural Gas Preview:

My Expectation: 110 - 115 Bcf BUILD.

Consensus: Unknown. It's getting harder and harder to find but I did see a report of 107 Bcf expected out of Strategic Energy and Economic Research Inc and they're none to shabby with the numbers. The over / under for natural gas is likely to be 105 Bcf.

Gross Gas Imports: Up Another 0.6 Bcfgpd last week. That's on top of a 0.7 Bcfgpd increase in the prior week. As you can see from the following charts, LNG remains robust (at record levels) while Canadian volumes continue to rebound. Long term the Canadian volumes should fall (reduced drilling which is already yielding lower Canadian gross production and increasing demand for Alberta's burgeoning oil sands projects)

nat-gas-imports-052907.jpg

Odds & Ends:

Analyst Watch:  B of A cuts ratings on (ANDE), (PEIX), (VSE)

114 Responses to “Thursday – Simultaneous Oil & Natural Gas Reports”

  1. 1
    T-Tupp Says:

    valero has cracks updated through the 25th posted on their website. the data is more recent.

    z- btw, how are these regional cracks calculated???

    all i can figure out is the cash price of RBOB, multiply it by 42 for the size of a barrel and then subtract the cash price of a barrel of WTI. but that gets me an arbitrary number.. help please lol

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Nicky – I’m saying it could very well be a little bigger. I don’t bet on the weekly numbers there as there are too many unknowns. I was just musing. I’m much more comfortable looking at weekly n gas numbers.

    T – I saw your question last night and forgot to respond. The cracks are 3-2-1 and 2-1-1 depending on the region and use regional oils as inputs. I’ll run through a couple of sample calcs later today.

    homan- you’re absolutely right!

  3. 3
    zman Says:

    JC – just saw your email. Nice work. The long term capacity picture (ex US) does appear robust. Take care with the time frames as many of these projects will be slow to complete. As to crack spreads here, they will likely feel the impact well prior to the first tanker loading. I’ll look over you stuff in more detail tonight. I agree that VLO long continues to be a good idea as it’s the strongest player in the group. I’m not sure their margins will suffer as heavy/sour production is curtailed b/c I think that’s a very temporary event.

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Somebody shoot me for not having owned CRZO yet. Now > $40.

  5. 5
    zman Says:

    PQ continues to rocket higher. Another day, another 2%.

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    mro / tso continue to beat me about like a red headed step child. Glad they’re my only puts right now.

  7. 7
    scoop Says:

    At what price or time(date) would it be prudent to sell your put position?

  8. 8
    Phil Says:

    Z – they want us on the radio in 5 mins – check your email!

  9. 9
    Kevin Says:

    Interesting,…CNBC now reports an estimate RANGE instead of a clear number. I think ref rate of over 92% will be the line in the sand.

  10. 10
    JTC Says:

    ZMAN,

    Where do you get your production/supply and demand data for natural gas? Is it all avaliable on the net?

    Thanks,

    JTC

  11. 11
    Kevin Says:

    Numbers look bullish to me, especially with memorial weekend driving usage on next weeks report. 91.1% rate isn’t going to scare any trader IMO.

  12. 12
    zman Says:

    Nicky thanks for covering for me. I was on an online radio station in Dallas covering the inventory reports. I’ll send a link to the conversation when I have it just for kicks! Looks like Phil at PSW and I will be a regular feature at 9:30 CST on Wednesdays.

  13. 13
    bill fraser Says:

    Z– thats great and i will listen.. post the link!

    I made the 30 bucks on my ng trade 🙂

    I like shorting above 8 to 8.1

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    Imports: 3rd biggest week ever for gasoline

    Utilization was down but production of both gasoline and distillates was up.

  15. 15
    sane Says:

    They are still filling the SPR

    Sane

  16. 16
    H Says:

    Nicky–whats RBOB HO and Oil printing now?

  17. 17
    H Says:

    Thanks Nicky…whats your opine on todays report?

    zman- what do you thibk about service between today and tommorow?

  18. 18
    zman Says:

    Hahahaha Sane – of course they are but you’re not supposed to point it out!

  19. 19
    zman Says:

    Nicky or anyone – how did CNBC spin the numbers?

  20. 20
    LB Says:

    Zman- I also took puts on TSO & MRO on this mornings runup. Your thoughts based on the new numbers? Worth holding?
    Thanks

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    LB – I’m a little surprised at the strength of oil this morning following the report. Well, at least the USO. I’m showing the summer strip down a touch now.

    Gasoline demand still running 9.4 on a 4 week average and we’re building stocks. Just don’t see the bullish piece of the puzzle I must be missing. Or it may be that traders are going to sell off the market hard this afternoon (opposite pattern of last few weeks)

    Quite a few more refineries came back up this week and it appears that utilization should rise next week along with further gains in production.

  22. 22
    H Says:

    So the refiners may reverse some, and the service may contiune higher on lower oil and more refining?

  23. 23
    zman Says:

    Nicky, when you say correction are you drawing retracement lines to plot those points? I was confused because you used the word “correction” and I thought that’s what we just had lol.

    My connection is acting hinky to commodity quotes. Can someone give me the live change on day of July Crude and RBOB? tia

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    Bill F – Congrats! I’ll have a link on the site before next week that’ll let you listen to me babble live. I keep telling Phil not to call them oil crooks on air b/c the audience is in Tx and many of them are listening but what are you going to do.

    USO – hmmmm. rolling over?

  25. 25
    Kevin Says:

    That refinery rate is really shitty. 91.1 again with next weeks draw from vacation weekend? Hmmm. I think these numbers are bullish for a move higher in the short term. I guess different opinions is what makes a market.

  26. 26
    zman Says:

    Nicky – I think I need to get a third PC and monitors dedicated for commodities so I can draw those lines. I just eyeball it…probably a little too much sway given to fundies on my part, not enough TA.

  27. 27
    H Says:

    ALERT!!!

    WHAT JUST HAPPENED OIH SELLING OFF AND NOW RED !

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    K – exactly. And you may be right about the weekend demand being on the actual weekend with little taken from pre holiday (Friday) fill ups. I’ll give the week of Mem Day demand numbers another scrub going back in time but it appeared to me to be less of a bump than the media and guys like Flynn play it up to be.

    I’ve got to remember to read Flynns piece this afternoon since he didn’t get his expected 2 mm barrel gaso draw.

  29. 29
    zman Says:

    N – what’s nat gas up to in July and Aug. Just saw CNBC said it’s flat.

    Also, did anyone see that Alt energy guy on CNBC just now? What major source of energy was he referring to as lost that we just learned of yesterday?

  30. 30
    H Says:

    OIH was up 2 after the report…now down to flat…LOOK these are breaking out from the correction! I say new highs come anyday-

  31. 31
    LB Says:

    Z- Huge Nat GAs fields in Alaska. XOM is not going forward with.

  32. 32
    H Says:

    Am I right?

  33. 33
    zman Says:

    LB – Thanks. That’s old news. They agree on pipeline costs and the state wants to move forward. The guy acted like it was a major field that was watering out or declining off a cliff of a sudden. Silly alt energy guy.

  34. 34
    H Says:

    SLB down……1.23

    strange

  35. 35
    zman Says:

    H – you are correct. I think falling OIH is an opportunity but I’m not adding new positions right now as previously discussed. I’d be long (and I still have some HAL and GRP calls which I’ll have to sell soon).

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    USO rolling over.

    Loosing my GRP calls here.

    Out HAL calls

  37. 37
    zman Says:

    Wow, back profitable on TK.

    Oil imports were down a touch but have been running pretty high. Gasoline was obviously high. The oil tankers may be getting stacked up trying to offload but I’d bet they’re slowing crude imports at this point.

    Although we saw a draw in crude which set off the initial rally in oil much of that draw would come from the 600,000 bopd drop in week to week oil imports.

  38. 38
    H Says:

    What a day I’m having I brought OIH 170P’s yesterday a bit before the close…at3.2 / and for sure I figured the oil and HO numbers were gonna kill me, / and they were after the report, but I took a chance that the bounce would find some selling and doubled down..at 2.7, which gave me a average cost of 2.85- and sold on the bounce for 3.5!

    I knwe it was just plain dumb to try to sort oih when it was breaking out, from the sideways moves…but I throught yesterday may have been to much of a pop if thei were any surprise in the report ( well not, cept for the api ) but I did it and will not ever short a breakout again…however we are getting much closer to the turn around and reversal/ selling…or running for the exits! of course bar any geo or weather news!

  39. 39
    H Says:

    I just looked at the tickers again, first look after selling…I A LOOSER!!!

    Thats it I can’t hold without geeting scared! BAD BAD BADIE ME!

    I am soo sorry I sold, I throught it was going back up from 170- I didn’t think it would break down!

  40. 40
    zman Says:

    Nice H!

  41. 41
    sane Says:

    API for ya guyz

    The American Petroleum Institute reported a climb of 3.1 million barrels in crude supplies for the week ended May 25. The Energy Department had reported a decline of 2 million barrels for the latest week. Motor gasoline supplies were up 2.3 million barrels, the API said. The government reported a rise of 1.3 million barrels. Distillate supplies climbed 1.9 million barrels, the API said. The government posted a 100,000-barrel rise.

  42. 42
    zman Says:

    Nicky – I’ve got the RBOB summer strip down almost 2 cents. Where do you see support for say the July and August contracts? tia

  43. 43
    zman Says:

    July RBOB looks to me like it could easily break and test $2.12.

  44. 44
    H Says:

    NICE LIKE CRAP—I HAD TO SWEET THIS ONE AND MOVE LIKE FIRE TO AVERAGE DOWN ONLY TO SEE THAT I COULD’HAVE JUST SAT TIGHT..and then after I sell them the P flys!

  45. 45
    zman Says:

    Wow Sane. I guess it all averages out in the long run but the implied demand from the API would seem to be down!

  46. 46
    H Says:

    ONLY IF THE EIA AND API REVERSED NUMBERS THIS MORNING I WOULD BEEN HAPPIER!

    BIG DIFFERANCE..but like z says production and imports flowing…while oil offloading put back…Ho reversed fast~

  47. 47
    H Says:

    Z__wheres the radio show link?

  48. 48
    sane Says:

    I think the API has a tally of over 350mmbls of oil in stock. That is a lot of oil in stocks.

    Sane

  49. 49
    zman Says:

    H – it’s better than losing money. You once asked for my trading advice and so every once in awhile, when I’m feeling particularly smug like today, I give it.

    Treat every trade as if it were only 1 in the 1000 you make. Somebody smart, not me, said that. It helps when you’re sweating and also allows you to disassociate yourself from the “swing for the fences on every trade” or even “get back to where I started from” frames of mind. Just some thoughts for you perusal.

  50. 50
    sane Says:

    I wonder if the API gets tanker tallies for tankers waiting to be off loaded where the DOE only counts onshore?

    Sane

  51. 51
    H Says:

    Hey My Airlines are working–

    I don’t know about the rest of you- but even with the high costs and slim margins…I like to use airlines as an anti oil/gas trade!

    and I brought them around 5/15 and before as gas and oil did their thing….

    I stll have some , I been selling them this week–but my calls on LCC the june 35 are at 2 bucks which is almost 100% gain..and the stks are up a few points with todays move. I will be selling the rest soon-

  52. 52
    H Says:

    wow! nicky RBOB where is it now?

  53. 53
    zman Says:

    Sane – that sounds like a lot of oil but I don’t think it compares apples to apples with the EIA stocks. hhmmmm.

    Tankers counts. I doubt it.

    I take it Eric Bolling pumped his favorite refiner, ALJ when he was on cnbc earlier. its the only one up I see.

    here comes the pump

  54. 54
    H Says:

    Thanks for the little talking to Z I feel better, and that is exactly what I go for when I am getting a bit blinded by emotion–I say act as a trader now, with a mindset of this is my one and only and I can and must make the best of it no matter what Right now at this second..take the money and run!

  55. 55
    zman Says:

    Nicky – doesn’t the June contract expire today?

  56. 56
    H Says:

    Thanks…Nicky, I see why my airliners are moving…I am selling either right now or soon….Why..well I don’t want to puch it they had a good bounce, and the weekend, plus CAL will release its MAy traval metrics any minuts and I don’t want to hang around for them to say high gas a nd soft demand May

    Since I brought the airlines all the Stars have lined up , a bit criookered and hap hazzardly but they did it. and I will take what I got for now-

  57. 57
    zman Says:

    H – good luck with the transports. Anybody here like any trucking names. I used to play them when I thought gasoline was in for a breather.

  58. 58
    J Says:

    I think ALJ is just playing catch up, it was the only refiner that was down yesterday. Last big volume day on ALJ saw a lot of selling into a rally, so I think we are going to see it underperform the other refiners near term. Management still has to make a believer out of me.

  59. 59
    H Says:

    Whats left in trucking? the builders are good (lol) but the truckers all consoiladed! I used to like swif and JBH

  60. 60
    H Says:

    I’m pooped! I see the stks in OIH came within pennines of new highs today, and then ticked down, the trand is still up, but I would not be a buyer now…and if i did have more calls I would be looking to lighten up- real smart huh?

    IS that GS calling?

  61. 61
    H Says:

    Plus as you all know the fundies are very strong…but how long into 08 can they move up?

  62. 62
    zman Says:

    N – sorry, in asking about the expiry I was referencing your comment that the weekly trend line was at 2.2975 – I assumed you meant June but your comment ended with “if we don’t closed about that by tomorrow”

    Also, sorry to pry but is Nicky M or F? I only ask b/c I reference your stuff from time to time in the daily post and on the PSW site and it’s awkward to you Nicky repeatedly in a paragraph.

  63. 63
    sane Says:

    I work in the trucking industry and trucking stocks are a tough play. A lot of consolidation and such.

    Sane

  64. 64
    zman Says:

    Sane – I forgot that. Not a wireless connection in your cab I hope. Oh, look out for that deer! LOL.

    It’s labor than fuel as the number 1 and 2 costs right? Surely some of these guys are n’t hedged to the gills and would enjoy a trip down in diesel prices, no?

    What about the specialty guys like frozen food express, surely the extra fuel to keep those trucks cools would be an issue for the stock if it appears that spiraling fuel costs are about to come to an end?

  65. 65
    zman Says:

    N – really sorry to have asked but the name can go either way. lol.

    as to the easy going temperament = female comment…I’m leaving that one alone. 🙂

  66. 66
    H Says:

    Zman…what onlone station were you and Philly oN ? Have a link/ or the station name?

  67. 67
    zman Says:

    Oil hugging $63 for dear life.

  68. 68
    H Says:

    This trucker talk makes me hungry, nothing like seeing a big semi of jenos pizza nd trukey Hill Ice cream!

  69. 69
    H Says:

    Nickie, mine are like steady, but I did do a HUH ? with my face !!!

  70. 70
    H Says:

    Hey, what great t&A from Nickie, but expect nothing less from a female!

  71. 71
    zman Says:

    MN1.com. Market New 1

    It’s an internet broadcaster but I think they’re on the dial as well if you’re in the Dallas/Ft Worth area.

    Looks like it’s going to be the P&Z show every Wednesday at 10:20 – 10:40 EST.

    They will archive today’s session as a podcast tonight and I’ll have a link directly to it hopefully in tomorrow’s post. I had literally 5 minutes of notice for today’s session and I think it went well since they’re offering us a weekly segment. Anyway, look for an improvement in coming weeks.

  72. 72
    sane Says:

    Z,

    I wish I was in a tractor, unfortunately I am a glass cage in the corporate office.

    Yeah you are right about the labor #1 and fuel #2. Fuel costs are quite different in the trucking industry vs. say the airlines. A lot of the time the customer is charged for fuel so it accounts to merely a passthrough. We usually have a say 30 – 60 day fuel surcharge contract with most of the larger customers that varies with the cost of fuel. Once in a while the customers won’t agree to a increased fuel surcharge, so we do at times eat it d/t fuel costs, but it is actually quite shielded. Same for specialty equipment such as freezer/refridgeration or hazmat. It costs the customer more d/t fuel, equipment, etc…

    Fuel affects us in the way of reduced volumes d/t increased rates on our part. Only a couple of out divisions get affected by jumps in fuel which are our crossdock operations which is mainly city delivery stuff. The fuel there generally gets hedged.

    Sane

  73. 73
    zman Says:

    Thanks Sane. So TL and LTL guys mostly insulated but you get a bit of a pick up in business.

    Maybe FDX and UPS benefit more?

  74. 74
    zman Says:

    N- Thanks Nicky. So be careful out there in Put Land.

  75. 75
    sane Says:

    Yeah.

    I would play the FDX’s, UPS’s and such on fuel swings.

  76. 76
    sane Says:

    I would also look into fleet carriers who own their own trucks. They may be a little more prone to fuel swings.

    Sane

  77. 77
    zman Says:

    fleet carriers, you mean like WMT? They seem to have a truck or two.

  78. 78
    Chuck Says:

    Did you hear about the addition to the Senator Ted Stevens (R-Alaska) that doubled the size of the home.
    VECO helped ‘review’ the contractors bills for accuracy, then forwarded the corrected bill to Stevens.
    See http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=14493

  79. 79
    H Says:

    Congrats on the show Z How did they find out about you and philly, you must have been shocked…your a star now,,,go ahead and charge huge rates! Hey how long to we see you on BloomberG?

  80. 80
    zman Says:

    H- no star, no bloomberg. Just a little more exposure. We’ve got a good gang here and I love the input from everyone.

    Chuck – interesting read. Too bad VECO’s not public. lol.

    N – that’ll be the day!!!

  81. 81
    sane Says:

    Z,

    Guys like SWFT and Werner. Asset based truck lines. The difference is our corporation does not own any trucks ( well very few ). The drivers own their own trucks and we contract the drivers, where as SWFT and such own the trucks themselves and just hire people to drive the trucks.

    Another good play is to look at container ship volumes and rail volumes. If those are up, I would look to make a play in a company that has a heavy weight in intermodal shipping. ( port to yard – yard to port )

    Sane

  82. 82
    H Says:

    OT QQUESTION..

    Whats the Crude oil Squwak box, on the NYMEX…I was thinking about taking the free trail, ..? what would I be hearing from it?

  83. 83
    zman Says:

    July crude back near HOD.

    H- don’t know what’s to be heard there? Got a link? I’ll try it.

  84. 84
    zman Says:

    Nicky – do you have Brent live?

  85. 85
    H Says:

    CLEVELAND CLIFFS INC Has been up the past week like a trump building! Their are buyout rumors again, from Rio- its a small cap so it can easly be taken, that and Cramer has been pumping it, its up from 70ish to 87 in 5 days…on the rumor and lastly cramer too. I am thinking about buying 85 puts they have lost big in the last few days and I think its very near the top, any throughts appricated!

  86. 86
    H Says:

    http://www.nymex.com/squawk_main.aspx

  87. 87
    zman Says:

    Chuck – I didn’t get what I was supposed to out of that link. What were you getting at?

    Demand level off late I was talking about: from the EIA out an hour ago.

    Four-Week Moving Average Demand Growth Rates Compared to Same Period in 2006
    Four weeks ending: from Last Year
    April 13 2.5%
    April 20 2.3%
    April 27 1.6%
    May 4 1.0%
    May 11 1.0%
    May 18 1.2%
    May 25 1.4%

  88. 88
    zman Says:

    N – is that cash Brent? That would put it off > $1 today.

  89. 89
    zman Says:

    N – thanks! So daily was off about a $1.10?

  90. 90
    zman Says:

    H – you should be pretty happy with the OIH sell now.

  91. 91
    H Says:

    am!…Don’t forget that link tommorow, I went to the station, but they did not have the archive yet—Again Congrats To You, Maybe you should ask N to join you next week!

  92. 92
    zman Says:

    Just rolled back my DVR to hear what they said about TS Barbara. While playing a “hurricanes could pummel gulf” runner at the bottom of the screen, CNBC anchor says named storm barbara could strengthen into a hurricane and enter the GOM this weekend.

    It’s a Pacific tropical storm. Storms hate land. Haiti frequently rips them apart.

    Let’s see…mainland Mexico (much bigger than Haiti) is in between the Pacific and the Gulf but CNBC surmises that it could strengthen (while on land?) and cross into the gulf this weekend. I’ll never say another contrary word about CNBC if that happens.

  93. 93
    zman Says:

    Long shot if you ask the weather service:
    http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Active.aspx?storm=2&type=track

    By the way, the is a weather tab at upper left where you can go and see the latest maps, data, and commentary from the experts.

  94. 94
    H Says:

    OK I’m kicking myself with my foot in my face right now,I am really peeed!

    I was gonna buy some GG JUN 25 C’s yesterday at a dime, as we know GOLD has been a stinker, but I figured with week GDP and some other things today would see a nice bounce. Now those 10 cent calls are getting 20 and 25 cents!

  95. 95
    H Says:

    well,look..they are looking for a reason to buy and the reporters at C N B C can help.some-

  96. 96
    zman Says:

    CNBC is calling their new way to pick stocks Hurricane Watch 2007.

    How to make money not of disaster but the fear of disaster. Wow.

    We of course will have to have a CNBC Hurricane Watch 2007 Watch beginning tomorrow.

    The analyst from RBC they had on should have challendged the notion that you buy E&P stocks for the hurricane potential. I do that from time to time but I run a blog. How a sell respecting sell side analyst sits there and says a thing like “I don’t think valuations are discounting a major storm in the Gulf” is beyond me.

    I like his picks, EOG, SWN, CHK to name a few but he should point out that they’re not discounting $6 gas let alone the current $8 or the price of gas in the event of an actual infrastructure damaging storm. Too much hype in the MSM these days.

    Why not tell people EOG and CHK are growing reserves at a phenomenal rate for companies of their size, or that SWN is an entirely gas focused, unconventional gas story with production growth in the bag for 40% gains this year and similar gains next? Instead, he wasted his onscreen time talking about storms and who would benefit. Exactly what is wrong with a good chunk of the sell-side right now.

  97. 97
    H Says:

    Hes calling a trade!

  98. 98
    H Says:

    Zman, I hate to ask, and I know your gains , way make up for it, but do you still have that MRO MAY 120 P ?

  99. 99
    J Says:

    Why fight the hype? Had been waiting out DEEP for it to drop back to $17 and jumped into it today. Kind of a spec play, but their playground is the GOM. So far so good, it just started ripping this afternoon, not sure why, but maybe people are reaching to find a GOM hurricane play.

    SLB goes much lower, I may have to grab some.

  100. 100
    H Says:

    I tell nya why, its cause cramer said its too cheep, after they reported earnings abd it fell, he loved it at 17 and says its to cheep, so their hunting for something that has not moved this year in the GOM or central park fpr that matter!

  101. 101
    zman Says:

    You mean June on the MRO and yes I do. I tired to sell yesterday. Missed it and it’s running again today.

  102. 102
    H Says:

    Todays a wild ride 4 sure, I suspect that OIH will still be making new highs, before long.

  103. 103
    H Says:

    O yea those..hang in …I would double down 4 even if u wanted!

  104. 104
    zman Says:

    I know he likes OII, not familiar with DEEP but looking at it’s profile it’ll probably run with a storm. Good business anyway but not familiar with the valuation there. And no options yet.

  105. 105
    zman Says:

    Quite the amazing close re oil.

    Got to $64.01 at the buzzer and stopped. I thought defending $63 was iffy so wtfdik?

  106. 106
    J Says:

    Come on H, there are too many Libs in NYC, they won’t let them drill in Central Park.

    I’m not above being on the right side of a Cramer pump. It does trade at quite a discount, which seems odd. The way I look at it, nothing in the services can stay this cheap for too long.

  107. 107
    zman Says:

    I would note that E&P didn’t buy the oil rally. In fact, a lot of stocks are looking weaker into the close.

  108. 108
    H Says:

    Hey J yes their is nothing at all being on the right side of cramer, and in fact I did own deep, in the 16’s not to far from where it is now, then I sold before earnings at 18ish…and I do all kiddig aside think its a very good play here! Good Luck! one other thing…I WISH THEY WOULD DRILL FOR OIL IN CENTRAL PARK or use it as a garbage dump!

  109. 109
    Sambone Says:

    Deep – Just sighed on for 5-6 month contract for 75% of revenues. Went from 4 ships to 9? I own it.

  110. 110
    zman Says:

    Sambone – I see 75% of revenues will be from non-hurricane sources. They sound like the Red Adair of the Deep!

    Looking at Q1 I normally wouldn’t like the divergence of top and bottom lines. It looks like with this new deal that may be changing. Also looks like more time will be spent at sea and less in drydock for the rest of 2007. Is that your take on both issues?

    By the way, if you’ve never seen the Hellfighters your missing one John Wayne’s best rolls!

  111. 111
    zman Says:

    DEEP – anybody see the JP Morgan initiation piece? Love to see those estimates. Thing looks very cheap on the trailing. Would you say best comp is the much bigger but same line of business OII?

  112. 112
    zman Says:

    Great day everybody. Thanks!

  113. 113
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    […]Zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… » Blog Archive » Thursday – Simultaneous Oil & Natural Gas Reports[…]…

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