21
May

Monday Morning – Half Way Back To Normal

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New system. Back in business. Ok, not completely back in business but getting there. My system crashed Friday after the close so bear with me today as I recover files and programs including my trading system. In other words, no graphics today and maybe not tomorrow. My thanks to the guys of Best Buy's Geek Squad who swapped out video cards for me on the new box late Sunday so that I can keep my multi-display lifestyle intact.

45 Responses to “Monday Morning – Half Way Back To Normal”

  1. 1
    Marie Says:

    Good luck Z

  2. 2
    zman Says:

    Thanks. Trading systems restored. Re-entering market watches. fun, fun.

  3. 3
    Marie Says:

    Valero Energy Corp. up 2.2% on an upgrade to buy from Goldman Sachs

  4. 4
    zman Says:

    Thanks Marie, refiners look awful frothy up here! And I’m not touching them for now.

    APC – another day, another sale.

  5. 5
    Art Says:

    Z, Have you ever had or considered Digital Tigers? http://www.digitaltigers.com

  6. 6
    zman Says:

    Given all the snafu late last week I’d bet that even if we breach 90% in this report we have a good chance of dipping back below below it in next week’s report

  7. 7
    zman Says:

    Art – had something like that at work. No I just covered up in regular monitor s.

  8. 8
    zman Says:

    Nicky – agreed. Strength today has been isolated to the majors and independednt refiners. Some of these moves are insane. MRO has gone through the roof. Still, I think they could go quite a bit higher given the spreads.

  9. 9
    zman Says:

    CRK slipping higher

    APC strong

    CRZO unbelievable I keep missing that on

    PQ waiting on the well

    Buying June 80 EOG calls here.

  10. 10
    zman Says:

    HK moving to new highs

    Interesting to see oil flat and gasoline off 3 cents and to have the entire refiner complex up substantially b/c one brokerage was late to the party in recommending VLO.

  11. 11
    zman Says:

    Nicky – hear ya lasted longer. As to a change, I think this market has a developed a need for constant refinery snafu. Lack of new problems and continued data going in the right direction: both in terms of increased production, and in terms of a bigger imports numbers (1.5+mmbpd gasoline) will help.

    However, I see the bigger shoe at present for price as the Nigerian change in presidents scheduled for the 29th. Things are going to get worse and worse until then with strikes scheduled for the 28 and 29 but also just more kidnappings and violence. I expect they’ll do something massive at months end.

  12. 12
    Sambone Says:

    Kind of energy related, but bght ENOC on the secondary on Friday. If they don’t dilute it between now and 2009, looking for $1.50 earnings in 09. Loss next year of .30 cents.

  13. 13
    Marie Says:

    Out of topic- anybody seen Amazon today, is this crazy or what?

  14. 14
    zman Says:

    that was quick on EOG. Got a 2x in the June 80s when it was off a dime.Up $0.50 on the common and a one-third on the options. its a crazy market.

    NE up another buck, and APC is ramping nicely

    CRK – there she goes (and HK, PQ, CHK and SWN)

    NFX is next.

  15. 15
    zman Says:

    Amazon sells gasoline now with every two books you order. 😉

    Nice move on the ENOC – I should pay closer attention to the clear energy names but they’re generally valued at “hope and a prayer” metrics. They only do well so long as oil and natural gas (and thereby coal) stay lofty. If you see oil breaking down, run for the4 hills on the clean tech firms.

  16. 16
    Marie Says:

    LOL Z
    I am holding VLO jun call 75, what do you think here Z, it keeps reaching for new high

  17. 17
    zman Says:

    I still think APC goes a multiple higher, say $55 this summer.

  18. 18
    Eli Hoffmann Says:

    Sorry to hear of your troubles. I know how frustrating it can be.

    Hope to have you back soon.

    [P.S. There may be minor interruptions in reposting as I’m due to travel overseas at the end of this week. I’ll try to minimize.]

  19. 19
    Kevin Says:

    What are the crack spreads looking like Z? How far does VLO go in your opinion. I am cautions when institutional anal-ists upgrade because they are fully loaded at that point. What do you think?

  20. 20
    sane Says:

    Israel and Lebanon are moving oil right now

    Sane

  21. 21
    zman Says:

    Nicky – Sorry for the delay in responding , I don’t see any news driving crude and tghe rebound in gaso. It’s very toppy looking but the equities don’t seem to think so. NFX finally up as weell. CRK exploding to upside (well, 2% but that’s a lot for that one)

    Eli- thanks. I just got a call from my tech guys. They said its dead so I definitely lost some stuff. I have to send it off to some place in Oklahoma to get it fixed and its a couple of weeks away. With that said, I busy rebuilding files for my essential stuff. Gas , gasoline, imports etc. My newer models are probably toast but I don’t need them right this second. I’ll have a full post up for tomorrow. Thanks for your concern. Going anyplace interesting?

  22. 22
    zman Says:

    Sane’s got the right idea there.

    Cracks are very high, way too high right now and I’m of the opinion, as is Phil at PSW thast this will be a sell the news event after the holiday. But I’m not short much of anything right now.

  23. 23
    Kevin Says:

    Z,..Refinery rate and build in Gasoline could be the trigger. I’m much more comfortable when GS DOESN’T upgrade a stock or sector, you know what I mean?

  24. 24
    zman Says:

    K – I do indeed. Although GS missed the run in TSO entirely – they’ve been a hold there forever

  25. 25
    sane Says:

    Z, That is the reason for the crude spike they were giving on marketwatch.

    Reuters Article

    Sane

  26. 26
    Art Says:

    Z, Why would your brethren, Driscoll at LEH, come out with that rating today on NFX? Doesn’t make any sense to moi. Thanks.

  27. 27
    Kevin Says:

    Damn VLO,..it just won’t stop going up!

  28. 28
    zman Says:

    Art – Driscoll’s a fine analyst. I think he’s missing the boat on valuation/potential there but that’s what makes markets. He actually came out with the rating on Friday (equal-weight which is just a hold) and it was in reaction to news last Tuesday, so on this name I ask you, where’s his give a crap meter? How about 0?

    NE just won’t stop going up either. HK is really on fire.

  29. 29
    Marie Says:

    z- any input on Petroleo Brasileiro ADS (PBR)?

  30. 30
    zman Says:

    Thanks N – I hope he’s right!

    PBR like the company. The stock may go a little higher here but is probably ahead of itself a bit. If you’re going for foreign exposure I like PTR better.

  31. 31
    Marie Says:

    Tks Z, picked up cvx instead.
    Eric on CNBC was kind of short on China, expecting correction soon.

  32. 32
    zman Says:

    Good luck M! Re PTR – I don’t think the massiveness of their recent discovery is anywhere close to fully reflected yet. But it will fall if the region does, true enough.

  33. 33
    Art Says:

    Z, I saw the report from Driscoll last Friday and thought it was a missprint. Do you subscribe to Riglogix? Thanks, Art

  34. 34
    Loren Says:

    For data backup, check out Mozy. Best service I’ve found in the online backup crowd. Automated backups with a free version for up to 2GB of storage, unlimited storage for $5/month.

  35. 35
    T-Tupp Says:

    happy i bought those vlo 75’s last week…..

    seriously ive just been trading this stock based on rsi and stochastics alone and have made a fortune……. sometimes its etter to think less maybeeee

  36. 36
    zman Says:

    Nicky – I think the sales comment re gaso weekend sales is anecdotal. If I’m wrong on that (and I’d be glad to be), someone let me know.

    Art- no I don’t subscribe

    Loren – thanks, I’ll give it a look. I bought a simple tech external drive which will be set for nightly backups beginning this evening.

    Tupp- here ya KISS

  37. 37
    Loren Says:

    fyi, external drives aren’t any more reliable than internal ones (possibly less so due to poor air flow). If you want to do it yourself, a more reliable solution would be a consumer-grade NAS with mirrored or parity drives. They run around $1k. You can roll your own NAS for less, with multiple internal or external SATA drives in your own array, but it’s more difficult to manage. Either way, you have to actually remember to back things up! 🙂 That’s why I recommended something like Mozy since you’re primarily interested in backups and not network storage. Their business is data backup and storage for the masses, so they have a primary interest in a properly managed and available storage environment that’s extremely easy to use.

  38. 38
    zman Says:

    Thsnkd – L – How about zip drives?

    Nicky – I was just thinking he’s probably looking at a small survey, maybe put out by someone like AAA. They used to do that but I haven’t checked. Does the API have anything to say about weekend numbers

  39. 39
    cowboy Says:

    T-Tupp. Interested in your comments about trading VLO.

    Are you using daily stoch / rsi indicators to trade VLO or are you day trading it using 5 min charts etc ?.

  40. 40
    ramana Says:

    Hi Zman…I never realised how much I miss your daily posting 🙂

    Thanks

    regards
    – Ramana

  41. 41
    Loren Says:

    Well, zip drives fall into the more traditional backup medium category (i.e. removable media). Hard drives are the rage right now because the costs/MB have fallen so much. With removable media you have to mark the disks pretty well so that you can go back to a point in time to recover a specific file. And the storage of removable media can be tricky, as a sub-optimal environment results in damaged media or at least media with a shorter lifespan.

    Plus, you still have the problem of needing to remember to back up your data. I know that may seem trivial because your external drive or zip drive probably came with some kind of backup program, but most backup programs are not well designed for the average user. They are very difficult or confusing or annoying to use. The good backup programs are expensive and have too many options for most users.

    If security with these online backups is a concern, I know Mozy offers to encrypt your data with a key known only to you. That means even they can’t read your data, let alone anyone else (assuming the 448-bit Blowfish encryption algorithm remains unbroken). That probably amounts to data stored on their servers being far more secure than your own home or office.

    Personally, having lost a hard drive and the very precious memories it contained, I go a bit overboard and backup everything to multiple locations (NAS, external hard drive, and Mozy). And Mozy is by far the most reliable and easy to set up.

    Sorry if I seem to be pushing Mozy, it’s just the service I know best. Any online backup service would probably do. Techcrunch has a review of several…
    http://www.techcrunch.com/2006/01/31/the-online-storage-gang/
    http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/04/23/tiny-startup-mozy-nails-multi-million-dollar-ge-storage-contract/

    Cheers,

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