16
Mar

Final Friday

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Friday Topics

  1. Intro
  2. Natural Storage Gas Review & Outlook
  3. Opec
  4. Snafu Watch
  5. Expiry - yawn
  6. Odds and Ends
  7. The end of zmann(.wordpress.com)

Intro : Oil failure day. What a disappointment. At $57.49 April crude is resting on my target. Next stop $55. - see further drivers of the decline in the Snafu Watch below. Stocks followed the market around until oil did a swan dive into the close. RBOB fell nearly a nickel on profit taking and a lack of hysteria. It’s funny how everyone expects gasoline and oil to rise after it’s been rising and now call for a fall the minute it starts dropping.

Natural Gas Storage Review. 115 Bcf in line with Street estimates (way above my 90).

  • April Gas fell $0.12 on the news to $6.96.
  • We have 1,516 Bcf in storage an average March will get you to 1,380 ish Bcf at the end of the month, vs 5 year average trough storage of 1,025 Bcf.
  • There was no 12 Bcf adjustment to last week’s number. I got into it with the EIA and we were apples to oranges and I think their methodology is less than perfect for comparing YoY storage but whatever. I may or may not post a technical piece over the weekend. I’m probably the only one that cares at this point.

Next stop $6.50. I think we bottom between there and $6. It’ll be interesting to see what happened to the net short position when the CFTC data is released at 3:30 (or so) EST today. Recall that last week we dove back into net negative territory .

Opec Watch: Slam Bam See You In September. I’m not even sure the ministers sat down. No action taken in adjusting production quotas. Seems they’re thinking everything is slowing down too. In fact, given the “well supplied” state of the oil markets their unwillingness to increase volumes at this time speaks volumes about their confidence in the rising demand forecasts for 2007 and the ability of the markets to absorb more barrels anytime soon (well, at least through September).
Snafu Watch. Thanks to El Diablo for his continued quest for the truth. See the Snafu page for detrails but here are the highlights:

  • Imperil Oil’s Toronto refinery is back up on schedule with prior guidance. This is one of those three legs of the stool holding up gasoline(although not in the US it’s close enough that it was making that region tight),
  • regenerator restart at a VLO Houston refinery,
  • Shell has regained access to a large leak in a Nigerian,
  • Nigeria’s oil minister says he thinks all shut in production could be back on line by the end of the year. I’ll believe that when I’m there, on the ground, seeing it all flow.

All of these combined should pressure gasoline and oil prices today.Options Expiration Day. Expiry combined with March Madness should lead to a very dull day after the first few hours. No DTs today I promise. Too much good roundball on the tube.

Odds & Ends

Analyst Watch: nada

This is the end of zmann.wordpress.com. It’s been real and it’s been fun but after careful consideration I have decided to quit posting to my wordpress.com site. ZEB is moving to a hosted site which offers greater storage (my charts are taking up an unbelievable amount of space) and more flexibility. There’ll be a link posted here over the weekend and/or Monday morning and I’ll keep posting on this site for another week or so for those who’re slow to bookmark new things.

Many thanks to the guys at wordpress.com for a great free platform but I’ve got to grow!

Everybody have a safe trading day and a great weekend!

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