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March 13, 2007

The following post is an addendum to my book report on END from last Thursday (Endeavour Petroleum - One Interesting Little Minnow - March 8, 2007). The following are what I feel to be my best estimates with a strong leaning towards conservatism.

The production profile below incorporates my assumptions for reasonable estimates of field declines and the timing and rate of additions from sanctioned field developments from publicly available sources. It does not assume any exploratory success or additional acquisitions. It has not been sanctioned by the company although it shadows the graphic in my prior post which was the company’s publicly disclosed production profile.

Production Profile:

end-production-profile-z-model-b.JPG

Note: My 2007 production is within current guidance for 2007 of 8,800 to 9,200 boepd despite: 1) current production (early March 2007) of ~ 10,000 boepd and 2) Enoch field production of ~ 1,000 boepd scheduled to come on-line in the second quarter. I’d always rather be able to take numbers up than be forced to bring them down and I’d like to see continued delivery on the promise of low decline rates for the acquired U.K. production base.

Hedges:

end-hedges.JPG

Note: Oil hedges include swaption volumes.

Summary: Moving in the right direction folks!

end-summary-a.JPG

Price Deck:

2007 and beyond: $60 and $6 index prices held flat. I think this is pretty conservative, especially on the out year gas price.

7 Responses to “”

  1. 1
    zman Says:

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  2. 2
    zman’s Energy Brain ~ oil, gas, stocks, etc… » Blog Archive » Wednesday – Oil Report Day Says:

    […] assets taking on what seemed like an unwieldy amount of debt. But at that time they laid in a series of very attractive oil and natural gas hedges and since then they have experienced much better than expected field performance from several key […]

  3. 3
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