30
Oct

Thursday Morning – Earnings Tsunami

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous broad conditions persist.  FOMC statement yesterday prompted a dollar rally that reined in oil prices late in the session which along with a concurrent drop in the broad markets yielded a move from a bright green to light green day for the group. And the sideways move following the 3Q + October dip marches on.  We note that positive earnings are begetting positive moves in overly beaten down names (case in point NFX yesterday) and reiterate that the group, at this point, is poised for the opposite of perfection.   In today's post please find the oil inventory review, the natural gas inventory preview, and a flood of earnings in Energy Land (both E&P and Service).

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Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get Jobless Claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 281,000, last read was 283,000),
  • We get 3Q14 GDP at 8:30 am EST (F = 3.1%, last read was 4.6%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
  5. Stuff We Care About Today – RRC,  PVA, WLL, Earnings Briefs (OII, UPL, EMES), AMZG
  6. Odds & Ends

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29
Oct

Wednesday Morning – NFX

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous market conditions persist. Energy land trying to find traction as oil does. As our owned names and names of interest report we will continue to keep our eyes on the ball, listening to the usual 50+ calls for the quarter and make note of outlying comments.  From SYRG we noted the first significant push back relative to Service company comments of solid to rising pricing next year and we expect to hear more of that soon. Most eyes today will be focused on the Fed statement this afternoon.  In today's post please find the oil inventory preview, comments on the NFX quarter (nice beat, all cylinders firing well), and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the FOMC announcement at 2 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – NFX, SM
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to

Continue Reading »


28
Oct

Tuesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous energy market conditions continue but this continues to look like the formation of the expected sideways trade.  In energy land, the Goldman dual sector punt (E&P and Service) left gaps in all our charts. Meanwhile, OPEC remains fairly quiet and we don't expect the more vocal members to voice notable comments until mid November (after EIA, IEA and the next OPEC monthly report are out).  In today's post please find comments on the NBL and SYRG quarters where we are primarily watching for color on other owned names within the ZLT.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Durable Goods at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.2%, last read was -18.4%),
  • We get Case/Shiller home prices at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was +6.7%),
  • We get Consumer Confidence at 10 am EST (F = 87, last read was 86).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – Earnings Brief – NBL, SRYG, CRZO Wrap, ECR, FCX
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to …

Continue Reading »


27
Oct

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:  Nervous energy market conditions continue. In energyland, analysts are throwing in the towel on oil prices and the the E&P group.  While we've said that analysts lowering their oil price decks and targets is part of the process of bottoming the group we'd note that some decisions to cut everything to Hold and in some cases to Sell, even for the highly hedged names, after the drop we've already had, says they were not paying attention to 1H15 global supply/demand fundamentals until very recently and to us, that's just hard to fathom. Today's group hit man is Goldman who is calling for lower oil prices and targets as noted in the Odds and Ends section of the post. We note that on October 17, Goldman said the oil price drop was overdone. Expect knee jerk sell action in the commodity and the group this morning. Week 3 for earnings will see more mid cap E&P reports from names with oily exposure so we'll get the first official color of the season on thinking as management teams express their sensitivity to various oil price scenarios prior to deploying 2015 budgets. In today's post please find The Week That Was, the 3Q14 Week 3 Earnings Calendar, and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Pending Home sales at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1%)

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 10/28: Durable goods, Case-Shiller home prices, consumer confidence, 
  • Wednesday 10/29: No economic data release scheduled, 
  • Thursday 10/30: Jobless claims, 3Q GDP revision, 
  • Friday 10/31: Employment cost index, personal income, consumer spending, consumer sentiment

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – 3Q14 Week 3 Earnings Calendar
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to …  Continue Reading »


26
Oct

Wrap – Week Ended 10/24/14

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Questions under the wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. If you have questions about Zman's Energy Brain please email them to zman@zmansenergybrain.com. 

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