06
May

Z4 Research Test Drive

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21
Nov

Tuesday Morning – More Permians

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Market Sentiment Watch: Holiday light activity within the group, light volumes, small moves, and nearly no news flow. We continue to update our thinking post quarter have been largely please . The market continues to be nervous about what OPEC will decide next week. And so we tread in place. Our sense OPEC+ extends cuts through 2018 and likely expands the group. In today's post please find updated cheat sheets on a few more Permians in preparation for the Permian Players update later this week, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Chicago Fed at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.17),
  • We get Existing Home Sales at 10 am EST (F = 5.39 mm, last read was 5.39 mm).  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today –  JAG, CPE, LPI
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »


20
Nov

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Expect a slow week as desks are increasingly unoccupied. In today's post please find The Week That Was, a set of Permian cheat sheet updates as we prepare for the full Permian Players long form table later this week (in case you missed it we posted the Permian short form table last Friday along with the Permian fundamental progression graphs in last Friday's post),  and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Leading Economic indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.2%). 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - Chicago Fed, existing home sales, 
  • Wednesday - Jobless claims, durable goods, consumer sentiment, FOMC minutes,
  • Thursday - Market's closed, Happy Thanksgiving, 
  • Friday - Markit manufacturing and services PMI,
  • See Housekeeping Watch at bottom of post.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – RSPP, PE
  5. Odds & Ends

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18
Nov

Wrap – Week Ended 11/17/17

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The ZLT was down 4% last week, in line with to a bit better than it's energy benchmarks.  The ZLT is up 14.9% last three months and down 16.2% YTD.  

We remain ~20% cash and cash equivalents.

The Blotter is updated.

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. .

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17
Nov

Friday Morning – Permian Players

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Market Sentiment Watch: Potentially a dull day as we have equity options expiring in the middle of the month and the holidays next week. In today's post please find the natural gas inventory review (slightly bigger than expected draw yields bigger deficits to year ago and five year average stocks and yielding a 2017 peak that falls well below both last year's seasonal peak and the five year average), the Permian fundamental progression charts, the Permian Short Form multiples table, and some other odds and ends.  Look for the long form Permian Players update next week. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Housing Starts at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.2 mm, last read was 1.127 mm),
  • We get Building Permits at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.225 mm).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Permian Fundamental Progression Graphs, Permian Short Form Update
  5. Odds & Ends

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16
Nov

Thursday Morning – Oil Inventory Review, Wattenbergs

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Market Sentiment Watch:  In today's post please find the oil inventory review (bearish side of neutral ... 1) record refiner throughput pointing to an almost absolute lack of a fall maintenance season so far (and we would normally be rising out of it now) met a bounce in imports and another report of higher U.S. production (now showing up 5% for Lower 48 from August levels ... hmmm) yielding an unexpected but smallish build in crude inventories which remain in much less threatening territory and of much less bearish trajectory than they were at and moving respectively a year ago ... 2) an unexpected build in gasoline stocks and a smaller than expected draw on distillates but both stock levels remain in oil price supportive positions), the natural gas preview (we expect a small build, consensus has migrated towards a small draw from a larger one expected earlier in the week), an updated cheat sheet for SRCI, a repost of the XOG cheat sheet from yesterday, the Wattenberg Players short form multiples update, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F  = 235,000, last read was 239,000),
  • We get the import price index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.7%),
  • We get Philly Fed (no forecast, last read was 27.9),
  • We get Industrial Production at 9:15 am EST (F = 0.6%, last read was 0.3%),
  • We get Capacity Utilization at 9:15 am EST (F = 76.3%, last read was 76.0%),
  • We get the NAHB home builders' index at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 68). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - SRCI, XOG, Wattenbergy Players
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »

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