06
May

Z4 Research Test Drive

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24
Jul

Monday Morning – HAL

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Market Sentiment Watch: OPEC compliance meeting notes to swing energy land today (see Commodities Watch section). In today's post please find comments on the HAL quarter (big beat led by NAM; International activity up), The Week That Was, the calendar for 2Q17 Energy Earnings Week 2, and some other odds and ends.  In case you missed The Wrap we included a number of interesting charts above the table. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Existing Home Sales at 10 am EST (F = 5.58 mm, last read was 5.62 mm). 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - Case-Shiller home prices, consumer confidence, 
  • Wednesday - New home sales, FOMC announcement, 
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, advance trade in goods, durable goods, core capex orders, 
  • Friday - 2Q17 GDP, employment cost index, consumer sentiment.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today –  HAL, 2Q17 Energy Earnings Calendar Week 2, FMSA
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »


22
Jul

Wrap – Week Ended 7/21/17

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Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday Post.

But first, some graphs for thought ...

1) Natural gas tracking to a sub 3.9 Tcf end of season peak, supportive of our $3.25 2017 deck. 

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2) Third consecutive better than expected WPSR as we eat into the 5 year surplus and fall below on YoY for products and approach YoY deficit for oil (despite the 16.8 mm barrel YTD SPR release this year). 

3) Middle East oil headed to the U.S. dropping off ... 

4) ...  Including from the KSA .... 

5) ... So if you think this is low ...

... Aug/Sept may be even more interesting ...

6) ... Helping to repair this. 

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21
Jul

Friday Morning – Natural Gas Storage Review, SLB

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Market Sentiment Watch: Energy earnings 2Q17 kickoff. In today's post please find the natural gas inventory review (smaller than expected; smaller one expected for next week as well), comments on the SLB quarter (stronger than expected, outlook more upbeat than prior), the Permian Multiples table, next week's energy earnings calendar (things start to heat up and we get more respected macro reads but the heart of the season lies in the following week), and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic data release scheduled. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review - smaller than expected, storage shaping nicely. 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - SLB, 2Q17 Earnings Week 2 Calendar, Permian short form multiples 
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


20
Jul

Thursday Morning – FMSA

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Market Sentiment Watch:  In today's post please find the oil inventory review (much better than expected headline inventory numbers, record distillate demand, strong gasoline demand, record refiner throughput, tame net and ex exports import levels, and the ongoing EIA over estimation of Lower 48 production), the natural gas preview (getting smaller with heat and high exports), comments on FMSA, comments on LPI, and some other odds and ends. Energy earnings season kicks off tomorrow with SLB. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Jobless Claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 245,000; last week was 247,000),
  • We get Philly Fed at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 27.6),
  • We get Leading Economic Indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.3%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - FMSA, LPI
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


19
Jul

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: In today's post please find the oil inventory preview (imports were at annual lows last week and may be more of a wild card this week but the SPR draw appears to be done), the natural gas preview (expecting an inline with last year and smaller than five year average injection this week and a smaller injection next week), comments on VNOM with an updated set of modeling assumptions and a new cheat sheet, comments on XOG along with a cheat sheet, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Housing Starts at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.163 mm, last read was 1.092 mm),
  • We get Building Permits at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.168 mm). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - VNOM, XOG
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »

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