24
Feb

Friday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Energy group appears set to fill OPEC gap. In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (slightly bigger than expected withdrawal but current mildness clouds sentiment), the oil inventory review (big drop in imports and big spike in crude exports along with better looking gasoline and distillate draw downs ... imports and gasoline stocks being recent market worry points), and then comments on another set of upstream 4Q16 reports as well as some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get New Home Sales at 10 am EST (F = 586K, last read was 536K),
  • We get the consumer sentiment index at 10 am EST (F = 96.0, February reading was 95.7).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - PE, COG (good quarter, plan), SWN (meh), SYRG (pre announced)
  5. Odds & Ends

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23
Feb

Thursday Morning – Earnings Avalanche Plus Dualing Inventory Reports

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Market Sentiment Watch: Sentiment remains poor. Energy sector continues into third month of under-performance after a strong 2016.  We are now in the middle of earnings season and we have not received the expected ramp into the reports that was expected with higher prices, a ramp that would normally make sense given the lack of real solid movement by much of our group since the first week of December (a week after the OPEC meeting) even as OPEC and it's Non OPEC friends have managed better than anticipated curtailment compliance than anyone expected.  We don't see much a reason for this beyond weak technicals (fear maybe that while OPEC has been disciplined but won't show good discipline going forward is a possible explanation though it lacks credibility and has, again, not led to lower oil prices).  And we don't expect significant further group weakness to carry into March and the second quarter but either way, results continue to play out largely as expected, oil prices are roughly where we expected them to be and margins and balance sheets are improving again. It's a very busy day today in energy earnings so our comments may be more brief than usual (expect lots of short bullets but if you have a question please ask and we will get to it). Also, at the start of the Stuff section we've included a list of call times and calls we will be on and calls we will listen to on replay. In today's post please find earnings comments for RRC, RICE, WPX, MTDR, OAS, CRZO, and CLR and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 230,000, last read was 239,000),
  • We get the Chicago Fed at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.14). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - RRC, RICE, WPX, MTDR, OAS, CRZO, and CLR.
  4. Odds & Ends

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22
Feb

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Short post today as we are traveling until mid day. In today's post please find comments on the NFX quarter, comments on the CXO quarter and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Existing Home Sales at 10 am EST (F = 5.55 mm, last read was 5.49 mm),
  • We get the FOMC minutes at 2 pm EST.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today –  NFX, CXO
  4. Odds & Ends

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21
Feb

Tuesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch:  In energy land the 4Q16 reporting season heats up and we have a dozen owned names reporting between Wednesday and Friday.  In today's post please find The Week That Was, this week's energy earnings calendar, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 am EST (no forecast, last read was 55.0),
  • We get Markit Services PMI at 9:45 am EST (no forecast, last read was 55.6).

The Week Ahead: 

  • Wednesday - Existing Home Sales, FOMC minutes, 
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, Chicago Fed, 
  • Friday - New homes sales, consumer sentiment.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Energy Earnings Calendar 4Q16 Week 4
  5. Odds & Ends

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19
Feb

Wrap – Week Ended 02/17/17

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The ZLT was off 1.3% last week and is down 3.6% year to date. The XOP was down 2.6% last week and is down 5.1% year to date. The energy space subsectors are down from 3.0% (oil service) to 5.0% (oil majors) year to date after posting strong performances in 2016 (well, all but the XOI which was up 18%  in 2016 which is better than the broad markets but by far the weakest amongst energy sub sectors). 

Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Tuesday post. 

Enjoy the long weekend. 

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