02
Jul

Thursday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Big day on the economic front as double the data gets jammed in due to the 3 day weekend. In energyland, we saw what really looked like a capitulation day in the groups yesterday but with no key reversal yet.   In today's post please find the natural gas inventory preview, the oil inventory review (more of a mixed bag that met the headlines), a natural gas macro update (April production strong but so is demand and net imports are moving towards zero (maybe late this summer)), a gassy players expanded set of Orange Charts, and some other odds and ends.  This is often a slow day as many traders leave early to extend the long weekend. Have a great, safe 4th of July. 

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • Jobless claims came a 281,000 vs a forecast of 275,000, and last week's 271,000,
  • Nonfarm payrolls came in at 223,000 vs a forecast of 225,000, and last month's reading of 254,000 which was revised down from 289,000,
  • The unemployment rate fell to 5.3% vs a forecast of 5.4% and last month's 5.5% reading,
  • We get factory orders at 10 am EST (F = -0.5%, last read was -0.4%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - with natural gas storage preview
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Natural Gas Macro
  5. Stuff We Care About Today - Gassy Orange Chart Update
  6. Odds & Ends

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01
Jul

Wednesday Morning – GPOR

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Market Sentiment Watch: Greek offers concessions lifting futures. In energyland, the Iran nuke deal deadline was pushed back to July 7, not surprising and 2 days ahead of when we thought. Expect a deal to be signed as time runs out. Do not expect a big surge of Iranian oil to hit global markets this year. In today's post please find comments on GPOR, the oil and natural gas inventory previews and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • ADP employment came in at 237,000 vs a forecas of 218,000 and last month's reading of 201,000),
  • We get ISM at 10 am EST (F = 53.2%, last month was 52.8%), 
  • We get construction spending at 10 am EST (F = 0.5%, last read was 2.2%), 
  • We get car sales over the course of the day (F = 17.2 mm, last read was 17.8). 

 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - GPOR, EXXI
  4. Odds & Ends

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30
Jun

Tuesday Morning – HK

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Market Sentiment Watch: All eyes remain on Greece with futures propped by hopes over a last minute deal.  Window dressing impact should dry up in the group as we head to quarter end today. In today's post please find comments on HK, an updated set of Orange Charts, and  some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Case-Shiller home prices at 8:30 am EST (no forecast),
  • We Chicago PMI at 945 am EST (no forecast, last read was 46.2),
  • We get Consumer Confidence at 10 am EST (F = 97.4, last read was 95.4) 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – HK
  4. Odds & Ends

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29
Jun

Monday Morning – Greek Fear

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Market Sentiment Watch: Greece remains in focus with the default deadline tomorrow and no progress made over the weekend, expect volatility. Here's a link for those without scrolling news with the latest headlines for Greece. Ukraine also looking troublesome, as well as Portugal and Puerto Rico but Green is the focus for now. In energyland, the Iran talks will hold sway over oil prices until they are completed and tomorrow's deadline is not surprisingly going to pass without a deal but we expect one with a week to 10 days. We don't see this as at all a dire scenario for oil prices. News flow remains light as is typical for this holiday shortened week of the year. In today's post please find The Week That Was and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Pending Home Sales at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 3.4%)

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 6/30: Case-Shiller home prices, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence
  • Wednesday 7/1: ADP employment, Markit PMI, ISM, construction spending, car sales, 
  • Thursday 7/2: Jobless caims, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, factory orders. 
  • Friday 7/3: No economic data release, market closed for 4th of July. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today 
  5. Odds & Ends

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27
Jun

Wrap – Week Ended 6/26/15

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As usual, questions and comments under the wrap will be addressed in the Monday post.

Please note the Housekeeping Watch in the Friday post for the 3Q15 quarterly contest for a chance to win something cool. To end add you pick under the Friday post (1 pick per subscriber and they are first come first serve so please check the list and make sure you drop the word "Contest" in with your pick and if short please say so).  Good luck.   

The longer term portfolios continue to tread water with the energy indexes (up 1 to 4% this week vs a flat group). We've seen the recent 2 month pull back as an opportunity to add to quality and leverage distressed names and started the process of adding names last week in both the medium and long term portfolios. Please see last Monday's post for comments on our short term thinking here.

And see the Blotter here for our subsequent trades as well as the last several years of trades.

We had a great time in Vancouver (Go USA!) with Keith Schaefer as a guide and will be doing an interview with him in the coming week. Keith's a smart egg and is all over ethanol and energy items that drift into and beyond our focus and is well worth paying attention to. 

We put out a couple quick SA articles for public consumption on WPX and PVA during the week here after having put them out days before on the site.  

We spoke with distressed name HK on Friday and will have formal comments in the coming week (glad I delayed that piece as things are less neutral and more positive than most see) before they hit the northeast corridors on a marketing trip with a new presentation. 

Have questions about Z4 Research? Send them here zman@zmansenergybrain.com.

Have a great rest of your weekend and best, Z

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wrap 062615

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