23
Sep

Tuesday Morning – IPO Preview

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Market Sentiment Watch: Group continues to experience nervousness and baby and bathwater action in front of quarter end and what could be a string of bigger than expected oil inventory increases due to strong domestic production and the normal seasonal retreat in refinery utilization. News flow remains more muted than expected from the E&P group. We continue to exercise patience with regard to new additions to the portfolios. In today's post please find an IPO preview in the Stuff section and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get FHFA home prices at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was 5.1% YoY),
  • Markit "flash" PMI came in at 50.5. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – IPO Preview
  4. Odds & Ends

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22
Sep

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous market conditions persist among energy names if not for the broad market as traders watch low $90 oil. We see opportunities to add in oily names but are being patient with adds in both the oily and gassy arenas. Recall that the Street was initially too high for both oil and gas price decks in the back half of 2014 and as such, they are in the process of marking 3Q14 price decks down to what will be the averages for the quarter so while most ratings won't be altered, price targets are more often than not likely going to be eased over the next couple of weeks. Noise in the long term time frame that is our investment timeline but noticeable nonetheless.  Expect more volatility as we approach quarter end. In today's post please find The Week That Was, a subscriber mailbag section, the agenda for this week and a few other odds and ends.  Please note capital was added to the ZLT G accounts again last week and will likely be deployed in the next couple of weeks.  

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the Chicago Fed activity index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.25), 
  • We get Existing Home Sales at 10 am EST (F = 5.2 mm, last read was 5.15 mm)

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 9/23: FHFA home prices, Markit Flash PMI, 
  • Wednesday 9/24: New home sales, 
  • Thursday 9/25: Jobless claims, durable goods, 
  • Friday 9/26:  GDP revision, consumer sentiment. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – IPAA Monday schedule, subscriber mailbag
  5. Odds & Ends

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21
Sep

Wrap – Week Ended 09/19/14

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All questions under the wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

wrap 091914


19
Sep

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch: Triple witching likely to lead to volatility and periods of extreme boredom. Energy land nervously eyeing lower oil prices and a dearth of news. Expect news flow to pick up next week in the form of additional pre quarter end operations updates from the E&P group as they speak at IPAA and from analysts in the form of minor price target trimming as the quarterly market to market for oil and gas prices is washed through models.  Not a big deal but it's out there. Ask questions if you have them today, otherwise we'll be working on an IPO preview for next week.  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (in line, 3.5 Tcf seasonal peak target may be a touch low), a CLR analyst day wrap, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get Leading Indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.9%)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – CLR Wrap
  5. Odds & Ends

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18
Sep

Thursday Morning – BBG

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Market Sentiment Watch: Markets breathing sigh of relief that the Fed's special sauce will be around for awhile and that China is now easing as well.  In today's post please find the oil inventory review (the expect by us but unexpected by the Street reversal in crude stocks is underway and the slope of the build in stocks this fall may prompt a move in crude back close to recent lows), the natural gas inventory preview (expecting big but not record injection), and comments on changes at BBG.

Housekeeping Watch – If you are new to the site or a long time member:

1) Thanks for subscribing!

2) Please ask questions in the comments section … there are no dumb questions here.  If you want to keep it private shoot it over to zman@zmansenergybrain.com address but honestly someone else may have insight I don't or may benefit from an answer to your question. 

3) Tell your friends about the site and get rewarded if they sign up (ask how at the email address above).  Know that we may be tax deductible for you (ask your tax advisor).

4) If you can't find something on the site please ask. We've been doing this for 8 years now (I mean the site, in the business for 22 +years) and I can get around the site or suggest ways to that are likely to get you better search results. Never be frustrated with the site, just ask. 

5) Thanks again.  Best, Z

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get Jobless Claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 305,000; last read was 315,000),
  • We get Housing Starts at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.03 mm; last read was 1.09 mm),
  • We get Philly Fed at 10 am EST (F = 24, last read was 29.3).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
  5. Stuff We Care About Today –  BBG
  6. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to Continue Reading »

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