30
Aug

Wrap – Week Ended 8/29/14

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Solid week to close out summer.  Year to date the portfolios are doing well (we've added time-weighted 5 year annualized data for the three oldest portfolios in the table below:

  • ZLT A up 22% YTD and 39.1% annualized 5 year average,
  • ZLT B up 22% YTD and 40.8% annualized 5 year average, and
  • ZLT D up 23.8% YTD and annualized 21.4% five average (the ZLT D owns almost all of the 34 stocks in the greater ZLT). 

In case you missed it we put out a couple of pieces for Seeking Alpha over the last week:

CRZO - Good Getting Better

and 

PE – Addressing Inventory Concerns

Questions asked under the Wrap will be addressed in the subscriber section of the Tuesday post (Monday is Labor Day and we will not post then).    Also look for the Natural Gas Macro slide show updates on Tuesday. 

If you have questions about Zman's Energy Brain check out the How To ZEB —-link here or send them to us at zman@zmansenergybrain.com. 

Have a great long weekend!

wrap 082914


29
Aug

T.G.I. Long Weekend

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Market Sentiment Watch: Market likely to be boring as traders and managers hit the beach early.  Next week look for increased volatility as managers start to think about the end of 3Q and then the end of year.  In energy land, we get another round of conferences and then we will start to see some mark to market action, especially for natural gas with some moderate estimate reductions owing to weaker than expected 3Q pricing. In today's post please find the natural gas weekly inventory review (neutral, still targeting 3.5 Tcf for  a peak in early November) and the final Catalyst List update.  Please see the Housekeeping Watch at the bottom of today's post. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get Personal Income at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.3%, last read was 0.4%),
  • We get Consumer Spending at 8:30 EST (F = 0.1%, last read 0.4%)
  • We get the Core PCE price index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read of 0.1%),
  • We get Chicago PMI at 9:45 am EST (F = 57.5, last read of 52.6), 
  • We get Consumer Sentiment at 9:55 am EST (F = 80.1, last read of 79.2).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Catalyst List Update Part IV
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to Continue Reading »


28
Aug

Thursday Morning – Catalyst Watch III

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Market Sentiment Watch: Ukraine on everyone's mind.  Look for a step up in volatility next week.  See Housekeeping Watch near the end of today's post.   In today's post please find the oil inventory review, the natural gas inventory preview, another section of the near term Catalyst List update and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch: 

  • Jobless Claims came in at 298,000 vs a forecast 300,000 and last week's reading of 298,000,
  • 2Q14 GDP revision came in a 4.2% vs a forecast of3.9% and a prior reading of 4.0%, 
  • We get Pending Home Sales at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was -1.1%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
  5. Stuff We Care About Today – Catalyst List Update Part III, subscriber mailbag
  6. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to Continue Reading »


27
Aug

Wednesday Morning – Catalyst List Update Part II

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Market Sentiment Watch: Should be another quiet day with no economic data release and traders' minds increasingly focused on the long weekend. Energyland continues to see modest amounts of traction following the mini-swoon we saw that happened to coincide with the 2Q14 reporting season.  In today's post please find the oil and natural gas inventory previews, the Catalyst List Update Part II, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic data release scheduled. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – Catalyst List Update Part II, AR, WPX
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to

Continue Reading »


26
Aug

Tuesday – Catalyst Update Part 1

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Market Sentiment Watch: Big day on the economic data front. Energy land continues to see sideways trading action (yesterday to the upside) as the summer winds down. We do note that several names we consider to be leadership names within the ZLT (both based on positioning within their respective plays and based on our weight of ownership) and sneaking up on 52 week and/or all time highs as they move back to end of June levels despite the lower oil price.  This is as it should be. In today's post please find Catalyst List update Part 1 (ZLT names 1 through 11), comments on the PE producing acreage acquisition, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get durable goods at 8:30 am EST (F = 12.6%, last read was 1.7%), 
  • We get core capital equipment orders at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was +3.3%), 
  • We get Case-Shiller home prices at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read +9.3% YoY),
  • We get FHFA home prices at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was +5.6% YoY),
  • We get consumer confidence at 10 am EST (F = 88.5, last read was 90.9). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – Catalyst List Update Part 1, PE, REXX
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to …

Continue Reading »

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