02
Dec

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch: Market eyes on Payrolls as case strengthens for December hike. In energy land, stocks and oil likely are likely to establish a new sideways trading zone near term instead of extending the week's big moves, at least for the leadership names.  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory review (slightly light but noise this time of year and we were neutral as to imports) and our valuation matrix updates for the Permian Players, the Bakkens, and the Wattenbergs, and some other odds and ends. More split pay names will be included in the slide set next week.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 am EST (F = 180,000, last read was 161,000),
  • We get the unemployment rate at 8:30 am EST (F = 4.9%, last read was 4.9%),
  • We get average hourly earnings at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.1%, last read was 0.4%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Matrix updates (this post has been archived under "Matrix" for ease of access on the pull down menu at upper left) 
     
  5. Odds & Ends

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01
Dec

Welcome To December – Macro Thursday

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Welcome To December:  Subscriptions to Zman's Energy Brain make great stocking stuffers. 

Market Sentiment Watch: Just monster moves up yesterday with 15 to 20% moves in our core names being common by the end of the day. We're keeping a close eye on valuation and will prune where necessary. In energyland, look for news flow to begin picking up as early as the week after next with the OPEC decision prompting 2017 programs towards the upper end of the ranges hinted at out during the 3Q16 reporting season. Also look for estimates to begin traveling higher as the lower end of the Street oil price estimates (some analysts were down as low as $37 for 2017) to begin marching up, taking consensus towards or a bit above our 2017 target.  In today's post please find comments on the OPEC meeting (exceeded our expectations and we were definitely in the camp that they would get a deal done going into the meeting), the oil inventory review (mixed bag), the monthly oil slide show (down but it's largely offshore and temporary, still onshore is still slipping), the natural gas inventory preview, the natural gas macro update slide show (a further easing in production, record low monthly net imports, and record high (for September) natural gas demand), and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 250,000, last read was 251,000),
  • We get the Markit manufacturing PMI survey at 9:45 am EST (no forecast, last read was 53.9),
  • We get ISM at 10 am EST (F = 52.5%, last read was 51.9%),
  • We get construction spending at 10 am EST (F = 0.7%, last read was 0.7%),
  • We get car sales over the course of the day (F= 17.7 mm, last read was 18.0 mm). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - OPEC, Oil monthly production data update 
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Natural Gas Macro - Production
  5. Natural Gas Macro - Imports
  6. Natural Gas Macro - Demand 
  7. Stuff We Care About Today
  8. Odds & Ends

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30
Nov

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: All eyes on OPEC. In today's post please find the oil and natural gas inventory previews, cheat sheets for OAS and CLR, and some other odds and ends.  Posted early given OPEC notes below the post starting early. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get ADP employment at 8:15 am EST (no forecast, last read was 147,000),
  • We get personal income at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.4%, last read was 0.3%),
  • We get consumer spending at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.5%, last read was 0.5%),
  • We get core inflation at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.1%, last read was 0.1%),
  • We get Chicago PMI at 9:45 am EST (no forecast, last read was 50.6),
  • We get pending home sales at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.5%),
  • We should get the OPEC announcement sometime around 10 am EST,
  • We get the Beige Book at 2 pm EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - OAS, CLR
  4. Odds & Ends

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29
Nov

Tuesday Morning – Permian Players Update Table

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Market Sentiment Watch: We get a raft of economic data tomorrow. In energyland we're expecting another fairly quiet day today in front of the OPEC meeting which, as every six months, we'll be up early, listening to the overnight comments from Vienna prior to door closing and then the meeting notes. In today's post please find thoughts on OPEC, the Permian Players update table, an updated Permian Deals table, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get 3Q16 GDP at 8:30 am EST (F = 3.1%, last read was 2.9%),
  • We get consumer confidence at 10 am EST(F = 102.5, last read was 98.6), 
  • We get Consumer Confidence at 10 am EST (F = 101.8, last read was 98.6).  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today –  Permian Players table, Permian Deals
  4. Odds & Ends

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28
Nov

Monday Morning – CDEV Bolts On More Delaware

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Market Sentiment Watch: Back to work as the economic data pours in (after today). In energy land expect volatility throughout the week with OPEC rumors and then OPEC news on Wednesday. Expect wide swings. If you missed The Wrap please check it out here. In today's post please find The Week That Was, comments on CDEV, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic data release scheduled. 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - GDP, consumer confidence, 
  • Wednesday - ADP, Personal Income, consumer spending, core inflation, Chicago PMI, pending home sales, Beige book, OPEC meeting,
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, markit manufacturing PMI, ISM, construction spending, auto sales, natural gas macro update, 
  • Friday - Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, average hourly earnings.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today –  CDEV
  5. Odds & Ends

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