04
Aug

Tuesday Morning – RSPP

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Market Sentiment Watch: Tractionless group action continued yesterday with exhaustion type sell continuing throughout the day. We continue to hand sit in the longer term portfolios and add opportunistically in the shorter term one.  In today's post please find comments on the RSPP quarter (beat and guidance raise with no increase in capex), and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Factory Orders at 10 am EST (F = 2.0%, last read was -1.0%)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – RSPP 
  4. Odds & Ends

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03
Aug

Monday Morning – Natural Gas Macro Slide Show

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Market Sentiment Watch: Most market eyes on payrolls at the end of the week.  In energyland, we have a busier week of earnings. Please comments in the Commodity Watch section on oil and also in the The Week That Was section which has been augmented with a few more items.  In today's post please find The Week That Was (including thumbnail reviews of last week's long list of earnings), this week's energy earnings calendar (even longer and a ot of overlapping calls), the natural gas supply and demand slide shows (showing signs of ebbing production with new areas of production including chief production driver PA broken out), an RSPP catalyst list addendum,  and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Personal Income at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.3%, last read was 0.5%),
  • We get Consumer Spending  at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.3%, last read was 0.9%),
  • We get Core Inflation at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.1%, last read was 0.1%),
  • We get Markit PMI at 9.45 am EST (no forecast, last read was 53.8)
  • We get ISM at 8:30 am EST (F = 53.7%, last read was 53.5%),
  • We get Construction Spending at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.8%, last read was 0.8%),
  • We get car sales over the course of the day (F = 17.3 mm, last read was 17.1 mm).

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 8/4: Factory orders,
  • Wednesday 8/5: ADP employment, trade deficit, ISM nonmanufacturing, 
  • Thursday 8/6: Jobless claims, Saudi monthy OSP setting, 
  • Friday 8/7: Nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, average hourly earnings, consumer credit. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Production
  4. Natural Gas Imports
  5. Natural Gas Demand
  6. The Week That Was
  7. Stuff We Care About Today - Energy Earnings 2Q15 Week 4 Calendar, RSPP Catalyst Addendum, Subscriber Mailbag Watch, HAL 
  8. Odds & Ends

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01
Aug

Wrap – Week Ended 7/31/15

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The wrap table will be out on Sunday.  For now, some requested macro data. The full natural gas supply and demand slide shows will be included in the Monday post but have also been added to the bottom of this post including the first breakouts from the "Other States" category of PA, WV, and AR production data.

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Production stall in progress. 

supply summary May 2015

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Meanwhile, demand continues to mount. 

ng demand May 2015

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Detailed Production Slide Show follows

NG supply May 2015 A

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NG supply May 2015 B

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NG supply May 2015 c

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31
Jul

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch:  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (essentially in line, we'll get a new set of monthly supply and demand data late today), comments on the HK quarter (solid quarter, leverage always present but they are working the issue), comments on the SDCJF quarter (solid, capex match to cash flow, still growing, still cutting costs, low leverage), and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get the employment cost index at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.6%, last read was 0.7%),
  • We get Chicago PMI at 9:45 am EST (no forecast, last read was 49.4), 
  • We get Consumer Sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 84.0, last read 93.3).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - HK, SDCJF
  5. Odds & Ends

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30
Jul

Thursday Morning – 2Q15 Earnings Avalanche

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous market conditions persist but light dawning on domestic oil production should be beginning to staunch significant further decline in group sentiment. Natural gas to follow same path, just a few months later.  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory preview, the oil inventory review (unexpected crude draw but more importantly the weekly production model is playing catch up to reality, this time with a 151,000 bopd week to week drop), then comments on earnings from a number of names reporting 2Q15 results, and some other odds and ends.

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 275,000, last read was 255,000),
  • We get 2Q15 GDP at 8:30 am EST (F = 2.8%, last quarterly reading was -0.2%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - with natural gas storage preview
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - PVA, WLL, AR, CXO, SSN
  5. Odds & Ends

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