24
Mar

Friday Brief Post

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Market Sentiment Watch: This will be thin as we hit the office just before midnight last night and will be addressing outstanding questions from this week, both from the comments section of the Monday-Thursday post and from emails today. It's good to be back and to have missed most of what was a largely D.C. oriented week in the markets.  Today's expected healthcare vote will likely swing markets significantly. We see gassy and oily names as over done to the downside at this time and are waiting for the bottom of the trading range to hold near current levels before adding to select names and/or repositioning modestly.   

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get durable goods at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.6%, last read was 2.0%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Stuff We Care About Today 
  4. Odds & Ends

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20
Mar

Monday to Thursday 3/20 – 3/23

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Market Sentiment Watch: Slower week on the economic and energy data front. See below.

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16
Mar

Thursday / Friday Post

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Market Sentiment Watch: In today's post please find the oil inventory review (unexpected crude draw on a big slump in imports, flat refining, and another minor increase in "reported" production and despite an SPR release and then near record demand for both products leading to much bigger than expected stock draws ... in the end, crude, gasoline, and distillate stocks fell against their year ago and five year average levels), the natural gas preview (in line with last week's expectation as we approach the final stretch of the withdrawal season), some quick group multiple tables,  and some other odds and ends. 

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15
Mar

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Fed hike day (almost a certainty). In energyland sentiment continues to hinge on near term data (we think unwisely).  In today's post please find an updated cheat sheet with comments for OAS, the oil inventory preview (another build in crude is expected along with draw downs of finished products stocks), and natural gas inventory previews (one of the last few significant draws expected), IEA comments, and some other odds and ends. 

 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.1%, last read was 0.6%),
  • We get Core CPI at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.2%, last read was 0.3%),
  • We get Retail Sales at 8:30 am EST (headline F = 0.1%, last read of 0.4% with the ex autos figure F = 0.1% vs last read of 0.8%),
  • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 18.7),
  • We get the Home builders' index at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 65),
  • We get the FOMC announcement at 2 pm (widely expected to be an increase of 0.25%) followed by Yellen's press conference at 2:30 pm. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - OAS
  4. Odds & Ends

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14
Mar

Tuesday Morning – Wattenbergs, OPEC

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Market Sentiment Watch: In energy land, both oil and the upstream group appear to be awaiting inventories prior to making the next leg in either direction. In today's post please find comments on the OPEC Monthly (call on OPEC increasing), updated cheat sheets for SYRG (now SRCI) and PDCE, comments on the XOG quarter (EBITDA beat, otherwise as expected), and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • NFIB came in at 105.3 vs expectations of 105.6 and vs last month's 105.9,
  • We get the PPI at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.0%, last read was 0.6%).  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today –  SRCI (formerly SYRG), PDCE, XOG
  4. Odds & Ends

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