31
Aug

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Different week, same volatility. Big week on the economic data front culminating in Payrolls on Friday which will be viewed with even greater interest than usual as the Fed appears to very much remain in coin toss land for a September rate hike even at this late date.   In energyland, we saw a rare post May 1 positive week for the groups with the XOP and XNG gaining 5% on the week and the ZLT portfolios up 4 to 10%. The OIH, possibly inspired in delayed reaction fashion to the SLB bid for CAM advanced 9% last week (we currently only hold HAL in that space). We normally expect this to be one of the quieter weeks of the year in terms of energy news flow.  In today's post please find The Week That Was and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We ge Chicago PMI at 9:45 am EST (no forecast, ast read was 54.7),
  • EIA - Petroleum Supply Monthly - later today.
  • EIA - Natural Gas Monthly - later today. 

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 9/1: Markit PMI, ISM, Construction spending, car sales, 
  • Wednesday 9/2: ADP employment, productivity, unit labor costs, factory orders, Beige Book, 
  • Thursday 9/3: Jobless claims, trade deficit, ISM nonmanuacturing, 
  • Friday 9/4: Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - WPX
  5. Odds & Ends

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30
Aug

Wrap – Week Ended 8/28/15

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Questions and Comments under the Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

Have questions about the site? Please email them to zman@zmansenergybrain.com.

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28
Aug

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch: Volatility in equity markets has spilled over into the commodities. We'd like to see the sideways trade start to form up.  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (bigger than expected injection), comments on CLR and HK, and several other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch: 

  • Personal Income came in at 0.4% vs a forecast of 0.5% and a prior reading of 0.4%, 
  • Consumer Spending came in at 0.3% vs a forecast of 0.4% a prior reading of 0.2%, 
  • Core Inflation came in at 0.2% vs a forecast of 0.1% and a prior reading of 0.1%, 
  • We get Consumer Sentiment at 10 am EST (F 93.5, last read 92.9).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review:
  4. Stuff - CLR, HK
  5. Odds & Ends

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27
Aug

Thursday Morning – CXO

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Market Sentiment Watch: Volatility.  2Q GDP revision will rekindle fears of a Fed move sooner rather than later.   In today's post please find the natural gas inventory preview, the oil inventory review (unexpected and large crude draw due to a sharp drop in imports but builds in products as demand tips seasonally for gasoline before one last travel inspired bump and before distillate comes off the lows:  gasoline stocks remain in line with averages for time of year, while distillate levels remain over-stored, expect both to come off soon).  U.S. crude production continues to trend as expected (no change in the weekly this week but the 15 weeks since peak are right on track - see Stuff section comments in addition to the crude inventory review below).  Bears remain squarely focused on storage levels and as such are willing to ignoring the ongoing improving balancing act of imports (down 580,000 bopd YTD), refiner throughput (up 350,000 bopd YTD), and production (at least 360,000 bopd off the April peak and falling).  Also in the post, please find comments on CXO, and some other odds and ends.

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • Jobless Claims came in at 271,000 vs a forecast270,000 and last week's reading of 277,000,
  • The 2Q15 GDP revision came in at 3.7% vs a forecast of 3.3%, last read was 2.3%,
  • We get Pending Home Sales at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was -1.8%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - with natural gas storage preview
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - CXO
  5. Odds & Ends

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26
Aug

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Market remains in extreme fear mode on edge as China holds center stage.   In today's post please find our shopping list of names we want to add or add to in the ZLT this fall. Timing on that is September/October but we continue to be patient (we've only done two ZLT adds since February with most of our activity focused on shorter term and smaller stuff as we watch and wait for oil markets to stabilize). Please also find brief comments on the SLB/CAM merger (CC at 8:30 am EST) and some other odds and ends.  

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Durable Goods at 8:30 am EST (F = -0.6%, last read was 3.4%)

 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil inventory preview
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - Shopping List, SLB/CAM
  4. Odds & Ends

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