06
May

Z4 Research Test Drive

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26
May

Friday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: OPEC / Non OPEC announced the as expected 9 month extension. Oil and the group sagged. We see this as short term thinking with the pace of already shrinking crude stocks about to accelerate as the globe hits its much higher seasonal demand stride in the second half of the year. We added to some positions yesterday and expect to add to more in the ZLT next week. In today's post please find comments on OPEC (Commodities Watch section), updates for our short form multiples (in the wake of the stock price drops), and some other odds and ends.  Enjoy the long weekend. Drive far. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get 1Q GDP at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.9%, last read was 0.7%),
  • We get Durable Goods at 8:30 am EST (F = -1.1%, last read was +1.7%),
  • We get consumer sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 97.7, prelim read was 97.7). 

 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Multiples update
  5. Odds & Ends

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25
May

Thursday Morning – OPEC Meeting Day

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Market Sentiment Watch: We are posting early in the morning and will have comments from the OPEC coverage beginning around 4 am EST. The energy groups have been in a fairly narrow trading range for weeks now in front of this meeting as oil has begun to gently rise while U.S. inventories have started to decline prior to their usual seasonal turn lower. In today's post please find the oil inventory review (bigger than expected crude draw on record for time of year refiner throughput despite an modest increase in net imports, and fairly inline  gasoline and distillate stock draws on near record and record for time of year demand respectively), the natural gas preview (smaller than 5 year average injection expected), comments and a cheat sheet for ECR, comments on the pre OPEC meeting oil minister comments, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 235,000, last read was 232,000),
  • We get advance trade in goods at 8:30 am EST (F = -$64B, last read was -$64.8B).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - ECR,
  5. Odds & Ends

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24
May

Wednesday Morning – OPEC Eve

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Market Sentiment Watch: OPEC coverage begins tomorrow early, schedule noted below. News flow in the group is as expected at a standstill in front of OPEC. In today's post please find the oil inventory review (API out overnight was solid), the natural gas inventory preview (injection set to be smaller than the 5 year average), an updated cheat sheet and post quarter comments for XOG, the Wattenberg Players Short Form multiples table, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get existing home sales at 10 am EST (F = 5.63 mm, last read was 5.71 mm), 
  • We get the FOMC minutes at 2 pm EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - XOG, Wattenberg Short Form Multiples Table
  4. Odds & Ends

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23
May

Tuesday Morning – OAS

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Market Sentiment Watch: OPEC meets Thursday. Expect volatility. We do not expect a V-up correction higher in the group. We expect sideways action as prices calm down. In today's post please find an updated cheat sheet for OAS and a Bakken Players short form multiples table as we walk through more of the ZLT top 10 post quarter cheat sheet updates,  and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get New Home Sales at 10 am EST (F = 615,000, last read was 621,000). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – OAS, Bakken Player Short Form Multiples
  4. Odds & Ends

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22
May

Monday Morning – OPEC Meeting Week

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Market Sentiment Watch: OPEC Week Plus D.C. Hourly News means likely increase in volatility. Again we say Don't Panic but expect volatility. Media and analysts commented at $46 that the OPEC meeting was fully priced in as an extension. At $51 we say, sure pal, whatever. 3Q and 4Q demand vs the cuts vs unstable Libya and Nigeria suggest otherwise. In today's post please find The Week That Was (with comments on OPEC outcomes), and some other odds and ends. Please see the Holdings Watch as we plan to conduct some sales into near term strength as part of our late spring cleaning/streamlining plan.  In case you missed The Wrap please click here

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Chicago national activity index for April at 8:30 am (no forecast, last read was 0.08) 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - New home sales, 
  • Wednesday - Existing home sales, FOMC, Russia likely to make decision regarding production cut extension, 
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, advance trade in goods, 172nd ordinary OPEC meeting,
  • Friday - GDP, durable goods, core capital equipment orders, consumer sentiment.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today –  EOG
  5. Odds & Ends

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Continue Reading »

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