15
Aug

Wednesday Morning – MGY, FANG

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Market Sentiment Watch: Bigger day on the economic data front. In energyland, yet another big Permian deal. In today's post please find updated 2Q18 comments and a cheat sheet for MGY (reported select 2Q items yesterday) including our thoughts on 2019 EBITDA, comments on FANG's big deal (bargain, opportunity to improve the operation from a capital efficiency standpoint is large, expect normal deal weakness), the oil inventory preview (expecting another crude draw), the natural gas inventory preview (expecting a smaller than last week, smaller than last year, smaller than 5 year average type report) and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get retail sales at 8:30 am EST (headline F = 0.1%, last read was 0.5%; ex autos F = 0.3%, last read was 0.4%),
  • We get Empire state at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 22.6), 
  • We get productivity at 8:30 am EST (F = 2.4%, last read was 0.4%), 
  • We get unit labor costs at 8:30 am EST (F = -0.1%, last read was 2.9%),
  • We get industrial production at 9:15 am EST (F = 0.3%, last read was 0.6%),
  • We get capacity utilization at 9:15 am EST (F = 78.2%, last read was 78%),
  • We get the home builders' index at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 68),
  • We get business inventories at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.4%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - FANG, MGY
  4. Odds & Ends

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14
Aug

Tuesday Morning – PE, JAG, AMR, MGY

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Market Sentiment Watch: Group watching oil closely now in the wake of updates over the last week from EIA STEO, IEA, and OPEC. In today's post please find comments and an updated cheat sheet for PE, comments and an updated cheat sheet for JAG, comments on the AMR quarter, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • The NFIB small business index came in at 107.9 vs 107.2 last month,
  • We get the Import Price index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.4%).  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – PE, JAG, AMR
  4. Odds & Ends

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13
Aug

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Earnings slow to a trickle this week and we catch up on post quarter cheat sheet and group updates. In today's post please find comments on the OPEC Monthly (slightly more bearish looking this month - demand forecast edged slightly lower (20,000 bopd for 2018 and 2019) and non OPEC supply forecasts increased), The Week That Was, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the survey of consumer expectations for July at 11 am EST. 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - NFIB small business index, import price index, 
  • Wednesday - retail sales, Empire state, productivity, unit labor costs, industrial production, capacity utilization, home builders' index, business inventories. 
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, housing starts, building permits, Philly Fed, 
  • Friday - Consumer sentiment, leading indicators, advance report on services.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today 
  5. Odds & Ends

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11
Aug

Wrap – Week Ended 8/10/18

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Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

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The Trading Blotter is updated. 

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Not a subscriber? We can fix that.  Check out the How To ZEB to find out more about the site and if you have more questions contact us at zman@zmansenergybrain.com

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10
Aug

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch: Earnings season slowing down.  Look for a number of end of quarter updates next week.  In today's post please find the the natural gas review (in line to slightly light; storage remains well over half a T low to the five year average, now at lowest level on record for this week of the year in last 12+ years, speaks to strong demand relative to the strong supply which has the longer term strip so depressed; next week look for a smaller build, and see the price deck watch in the Commodity Watch section as the Street is truly lacking spine now in the face of much improved fundies), comments on the JAG quarter (big beat, increased guidance on well performance, lateral landing much improved, capex up which is a no,no this quarter but we find the reasons more than acceptable so get over it), and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get CPI at 8:30 am (F = 0.2% core and headline; last read was 0.2% and 0.1% respectively), 
  • We get the federal budget at 2 pm EST (last read was -$43 B).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - JAG
  5. Odds & Ends

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