27
Mar

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous broad market conditions persist and while they do the energy sector is seeing a bit of traction. While we are constructive on the group near and medium terms we see some of this as simply created by war in the Middle East. We have from time to time year to date added to names opportunistically (on weakness) but have not been chasing strength in most cases as we see the potential for another spring time melt in both the oily and gassy names (we don't anticipate a big leg down, but we're not feeling rushed to add capital at this time).   In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (first build of the season), comments on UPL, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get the 4Q14 GDP revision at 8:30 am EST (F = 2.4%, last read was 2.2%),
  • We get consumer sentiment at 9:55 am EST (F = 92.5, last read was 91.2),
  • Yellen speaks in San Francisco today on "The New Normal for Monetary Policy"

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - UPL
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to Continue Reading »


26
Mar

Thursday – Oil Review and Natural Gas Preview

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous market conditions for the broad market and a continuation of the sideways trade for the energy markets appear to be in effect. Energy eyes on Yemen (see Commodities Watch below for thoughts).  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory preview, the oil inventory review (another bigger than expected crude build but time and refinery utilization will begin to reverse that in the not too distant future), and some other odds and ends from conference presentations this week as we step back into the office.

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 290,000, last read was 291,000).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - with natural gas storage preview
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today 
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to Continue Reading »


25
Mar

Wednesday Morning Short Form Post

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Market Sentiment Watch: Out of pocket on break but will be around a bit more today. Back to normal tomorrow. In today's post please find the oil and natural gas inventory previews and some comments on WLL. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Durable Goods at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.1%, last read was 2.8%)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - WLL
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


20
Mar

Spring Break Friday

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Market Sentiment Watch: In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (essentially inline withdrawal lands us in lower half of expected 2015 trough storage), some state oil production graphs of interest, and some other odds and ends. Please see the Housekeeping Watch at the bottom of the post.

People Say The Nicest Things Watch:

 zman, with KWK filing for BK today. I have to thank  for sharing your thoughts on KWK when I first discovered your site, way back when it was free :-). I had a lot of KWK at the time but your thoughts got me to thinking about KWK in a different way and I sold them long ago to get into much better companies, which we still discuss here today. Thank you very much for doing what you do so very well.

ZComment: We're not going to avoid all the land mines this cycle but we will avoid most of them. Glad it's a help and thanks very much for sticking around for the last 8+ years. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • No ecodata today. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to Continue Reading »


19
Mar

Thursday Morning – OAS

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Market Sentiment Watch: Fed out of the way after giving the market pretty much exactly what it wanted yesterday (that's debatable but market reaction to comments was not). Our sense was that the Fed for the first time in recent history may have been talking to tame the dollar and it makes one wonder if the strong dollar trade (which has enjoyed mindless tenacity on the bull side) is going to flip the other way for a time. In today's post please find the natural gas inventory preview (bigger than average last hurrah of a withdrawal likely on the way today, taking us to the low side of our expected 2015 trough range), the oil inventory review (another big jump in crude inventories in large part due to a one week bump in imports and record gasoline demand for this week of the year was a touch that will likely not be noted for a time), comments on OAS, and some other odds and ends.

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 290,000, last read was 289,000),
  • We get Philly Fed at 10 am EST (F = 8.0, last read was 5.2), 
  • We get Leading Indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.2%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - with natural gas storage preview
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - OAS, PDCE, HK
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to Continue Reading »

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