05
Feb

Payrolls Friday

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Market Sentiment Watch: All eyes on thoughts of what Yellen will say to congress in the wake of the recent spate of poor economic data and today's payrolls data. In energy land all eyes still focused on hints at an upcoming emergency meeting meant to stabilize prices.  We remain on the edge of the skeptics bench with regard to this. It will either happen or not and we have read nothing that suggests a shift in Saudi or UAE comments (ready to hear comments and rejecting a meeting outright respectively). As to natural gas please see the comments in the Commodity Watch section. In today's post please find the natural gas inventory report (slightly short of expectations on mild weather that's, if you scroll down to Chart A, masking what's been a good season to date for withdrawals), comments on MTDR, and other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 151,000 vs 180,000 expected. Last month's 292,000 reading was revised to 262,000,
  • Unemployment came in at 4.9% vs 5.0% expected and 5.0% last month, 
  • Average hourly earnings came in at 0.5% vs 0.3% expected and 0.0% last month,
  • Next week we get two days of Yellen testimony. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - MTDR
  5. Odds & Ends

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04
Feb

Thursday – Oil Inventory Review and Natural Gas Preview

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Market Sentiment Watch: Market eyes split between thoughts on NFP tomorrow, Yellen's testimony next week, and the ongoing chatter surrounding an emergency OPEC meeting. In today's post please find the oil inventory review (not great on the whole though we take issue with data on the gasoline side and on the production side (see charts below) and we note the large oil inventory builds are to be expected during the maintenance season and are a function of imports (particular at PADD 1 that should not persist given pricing patters),  the natural gas inventory preview, comments on MRD, comments on REXX, PTEN, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Jobless Claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 280,000, last read was 278,000), 
  • We get Productivity at 8:30 am EST (F = -2.1%, last read +2.2%),
  • We get Unit Labor Costs at 8:30 am EST (F = 4.5%, last read 1.8%),
  • We get Factor Orders at 10 am EST (F = -3.0%, last read -0.2%), 
  • Tomorrow we get Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - MRD, REXX, PTEN
  5. Odds & Ends

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03
Feb

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Most eyes on oil and NFP at week's end and then the Fed Chairman's testimony next week.  Energyland has resumed trading in fear of inventory levels that are elevated but not swelling out of line with normal growth this time of year due to seasonally lower refinery maintenance levels. So far, monster sized crude builds have been few compared to the same period in 2015 reflecting lower production levels and higher refiner throughput. News flow remains at a trickle levels as we await a raft of earnings later in the month. Mild weather is putting a cap on distillate demand and natural gas sentiment. In today's post please find a wrap and cheat on COG (big budget cuts yesterday but nearly maintaining same volume guidance as they tap the DUCs), comments on MRD, and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get ADP employment at 8:15 am EST (no forecast, last read of 257,000),
  • We get ISM nonmanufacturing at 10 am EST (F = 55.2%, last read was 55.3%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - COG Cheat, MRD 
  4. Odds & Ends

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02
Feb

Tuesday Morning – CPE, Permian

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Market Sentiment Watch:  Quiet day on the economic data front before the storm of data on Friday. Oil continues to move with the OPEC / Non OPEC cooperation or lack thereof rumor mill. We continue to do our homework and sit on our hands as far as trades in front of what was expected to be and what has so far been a soft opening quarter of the year. In today's post please find a wrap and cheat for CPE's (Shopping List name) 2016 outlook (strong stuff vs most) and a mini Permian Player update table to match, along with a number of other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get car sales over the course of the day (F = 17.2 mm, last read = 17.2 mm) 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – CPE, Permian Mini Update, COG, APC
  4. Odds & Ends

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01
Feb

Macro Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: China PMI came in at 49.4 for January vs 49.7 in December and consensus of 49.6. U.S. economic releases and earnings should dominate this week's market mood more than last week.  In energyland, interesting earnings move back to a trickle this week though we do expect more names to release updated preliminary reads on budgets. In today's post please find The Week That Was, comments on the U.S. monthly oil production data (negligible revisions this month with the new November data showing the month down 52.5 MBopd from October, the natural gas macro update, comments on CPE, and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Personal Income at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.2%, last read was 0.3%),
  • We get Consumer Spending at 8:30 am EST ( = 0.0%, last read was 0.3%), 
  • We get Core inflation at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.1%, last read was 0.1%).
  • We get ISM at 10 am EST (F = 48.0%, last read was 48.2%),
  • We get Construction Spending at 10 am EST (F = 0.6%, last read was -0.4%).

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 2/2: Motor Vehicle Sales (F = 17.2 mm, flat with last read),
  • Wednesday 2/3: ADP employment, ISM nonmanufacturing,
  • Thursday 2/4: Jobless claims, productivity, unit labor costs, factory orders, 
  • Friday 2/5: Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, trade deficit, consumer credit.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Production
  4. Natural Gas Imports
  5. Natural Gas Demand
  6. The Week That Was
  7. Stuff We Care About Today - CPE
  8. Odds & Ends

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