24
Jun

Friday Morning – Brexit Happens

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Market Sentiment Watch: Britain votes to leave the EU. David Cameron to step down in October leaving the job of negotiating Britain's exit to the next PM. Scotland voted to stay and is now likely to seek independence again. Central banks around the world talk of engaging contingency plans. Uncertainty to abound near term along with volatility as no one really knows how this break up will work and other countries begin to emerge as potential EU departure dominos. We will act in time to take advantage of the expected sell off but will remain calm and deliberate with a high degree of focus on the Shopping List and Blue Light Special List along with one or two other recently commented upon names.  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory review (year ago and five year storage surpluses continue to dwindle), a pre IPO review for new Delaware Basin focused name, comments on WLL, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Durable Goods at 8:30 am EST (F = -0.6%, last read was +3.4%),
  • We get Core capital goods orders at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.6%), 
  • We get Consumer Sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 94.0, last read was 94.3).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - CDEV - Pre IPO Review, WLL
  5. Odds & Ends

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23
Jun

Thursday Morning – Brexit Eve

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Market Sentiment Watch: Brexit vote should be in sometime overnight. In today's post please find the oil inventory review (a) pop up in imports that partially offset strong refiner demand and another sizable drop in domestic production, b) record gasoline demand, c) best distillate demand since 2008 for this week of the year, and d) a good sized retreat in volumes at Cushing), cheat sheets for RICE and COG as we prepare to release the latest iteration of the gassy players update, the natural gas inventory preview (another sub norm report expected), and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • Jobless Claims came in at 259,000 vs a 270,000 estimate and last week's 277,000, 
  • We get New Home Sales at 10 am EST (F = 560,000, last read was 619,000), 
  • We get Leading Indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.6%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Oil Inventory Review 
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Gassy cheat sheet updates (RICE, COG)
  5. Odds & Ends

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22
Jun

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: The doldrums of summer continue and the markets continue to hold their breath in front of tomorrow's Brexit vote. Overnight energy futures trended modestly higher on the back of last night's strong API report. In today's post please find comments and a pro forma cheat sheet on REXX, comments on another NFX operations update, the oil and natural gas inventory previews, and some other other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Existing Home Sales at 10 am EST (F = 5.6 mm, last read was 5.45 mm).
  • Yellen testimony day 2 begins at 10 am EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - REXX, NFX
  4. Odds & Ends

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21
Jun

Tuesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Brexit fears/hopes will cause volatility through the Thursday session.  In today's post please find quick cheat sheet updates for AR and GPOR as we prepare to update both our Gassy Players Tables (we'll be adding one more name to the tables with this iteration) and as we drop a new version of the Shopping List - Gassy Players Edition, the early read on oil inventories, comments on REXX, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • Yellen testifies at 10 am EST. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – AR, GPOR, REXX
  4. Odds & Ends

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20
Jun

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: All eyes on Brexit vote this Thursday. Polls over the weekend tilted towards Britain sticking with the EU and futures were up sharply in the early evening hours yesterday and remain elevated this morning. In energyland, news flow should remain slow as we approach quarter end and then we'll begin to see mini operations updates with production guidance. Expect Permian names to lean towards production guidance increases for the back half of the year as previously noted in the last Shopping List updates. In today's post please find The Week That Was and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic data release scheduled. 

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 6/21: Yellen testimony
  • Wednesday 6/22: Existing home sales, 
  • Thursday 6/23: Jobless claims, Chicago Fed, Markit Flash PMI, New home sales, Leading indicators, Brexit vote, 
  • Friday 6/24: Durable goods, core capital goods orders, consumer sentiment. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - STACK purchase
  5. Odds & Ends

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