Housekeeping Watch: Thanks for the great reading this weekend in the wrap post comments section. 

Market Sentiment Watch:  Light week for economic data and nothing today but futures are indicated higher as markets eye relief rally. It's hard to find a better word than "ugly" for last week's group action so a little relief is in order. I'd note that outside of E&P, the coal ETF was off 9% and the two "clean" energy ETF's GEX and TAN were off 11% and 16% respectively. In E&P energy land much of the trading appeared technical and showed little regard for hedges, production growth, cost structure, or oil/gas mix although lower priced stocks (price per share, not valuation) got hit worse which is fairly predictable in this kind of "shoot first, sort later" type of market. My sense is that oil should stabilize in the mid $90s over the next few weeks as U.S. inventory levels roll over in the face of higher seasonal demand. My plan remains to largely sit on my hands until we see some more back and forth trading in the market and the group, the so called YoYo trading weeks that eventually lead to more tightening range bound activity. In energyland many of our popular names of discussion will be presenting at the UBS Oil & Gas Conference this week (May 22-24), providing an opportunity for minor mid quarter operations updates.  In today's post please find comments on analyst price decks for the rest of the year vs our own and the forward strip, The Week That Was, and the Bakken Players Update for May – Part 1. 

Ecodata Watch: No ecodata scheduled for release today

The Week Ahead:

• Tuesday 5/22: Existing home sales (F = 4.6 mm, last read 4.48 mm),
• Wednesday 5/23: EIA Oil Inventory Report, New home sales (F = 335,000, last read was 328,000)
• Thursday 5/24: EIA Natural Gas Inventory Report, jobless claims (F = 370,000, last week was 370,000)
• Friday 5/25: Consumer sentiment (F = 77.8, last read was 77.8)

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. The Week That Was
4. Stuff We Care About Today – Bakken Players Update
5. Odds & Ends

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Comments will be included in the Monday post. 

Market Sentiment Watch: It's Facebook Friday and the talking heads will likely only be talking about one thing.  In energy land oil appears overdone to the downside in front of U.S. inventories that are about to peak and U.S. and global demand that is headed higher seasonally. Natural gas has quietly put in a bottom and short covering has helped to drive the front month up ~ 35% since mid April as of this morning. E&P stocks should being to get traction soon and I will get more aggressive after some more sideways trading action in the group.  In today's post please find a look at the recent drop in the group relative to oil and gas prices among certain names of interest.  

Ecodata Watch: No ecodata today and options expiration should make for a dull trading day. 

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
4. Oil Inventory Review
5. Stuff We Care About Today – What Price When, SSN
6. Odds & Ends

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Market Sentiment Watch: Euro dominated market action continued yesterday. Hedges, valuations, gas vs oil mix did not seem to matter much in the baby and bathwater style selling we saw. This is nothing new, it happens a couple of times a year and I let the longer dated stuff generally ride through it.  My sense is is that the year is unfolding pretty much as planned from a commodity price perspective and that names in the ZLT are fine medium and long term but my suffer further downside in the near term due to European instability. Last October was a gift. My sense is that May may turn out to be on as well.  In today's post please find the Catalyst List Update Part III and tomorrow look for the Bakken Players update. 

Ecodata Watch: 

• Jobless claims came in at 370,000 vs 365,000 expected and 367,000 in the prior week
• We get Leading Indicators at 10 am EST (F = 0.1%)
  
• We get Philly Fed at 10 am EST (F = 10.0, last read was 8.5)

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
4. Oil Inventory Review
5. Stuff We Care About Today – Catalyst List Update Part III
6. Odds & Ends

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Market Sentiment Watch: Eurotrashcontagion market continued yesterday with Europe dropping on Greece (yet again) which sent the dollar higher (again) allowing commodities to drop (again).  Well over 95% of my E&P and Service holdings are long term in nature and I plan to slowly add to names on extreme weakness and I do mean slowly and will only get aggressive after I see some traction (sideways trading action) in the group. The names look due for a bounce but I don't see a reason to make big bets at this time when Euorpe is wagging the macro background dog. In some cases like that of PVA, we've seen a name that is gassier than not retreat sharply from its post 1Q12 earnings report despite the fact that they are 70% hedged for crude over $102 and that gas has, as it should, completely ignored Greece. In other words, the top line at PVA is only improving but the drag of the market, group, is too much for them following news. This is again why I tend to ignore short term dips in my names as anything other than a buying opportunity. Speaking of the of the short term, on that front I've added a few calls in specific names that have had good news that's been ignored so far but shouldn't be. I expect those names (one cheap, one a little less so, both oily, both long time ZLT names, to "bounce" when the group does but otherwise I'm content to be patient with the short term stuff and to nibble on longer term ideas. Very patiently with a slow hand.  In today's post please find the Catalyst List Update for May Part II, comments on the NOG debt pricing and a look at global liquids production and world demand. 

Ecodata Watch:

• Housing starts for April came in at 717,000 vs 690,000 forecast. 
  • Housing permits for April came in at 715,000 while March permits were revised higher to 769,000 from 747,000 reported last month. 
• We get Industrial production (F = 0.7%) at 9:15 am EST, 
• We get Capacity utilization (F – 79.1%) at 9:15 am EST,

In Today’s Post:

1. Holdings Watch
2. Commodity Watch
3. Oil Inventory Preview
4. Stuff We Care About Today – Catalyst List Part II, NOG
5. Odds & Ends

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