06
May

Z4 Research Test Drive

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17
Oct

Tuesday Morning – Catalyst Update Part 5

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Market Sentiment Watch: Group remains quiet in terms of both news flow and big data events this week. Increased geopolitical tensions continue to support prices near the upper end of our near term expected range. In today's post please find Catalyst List update part 5, comments on LPI, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the Import Price Index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.6%),
  • We get Industrial Production at 9:15 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.9%),
  • We get Capacity Utilization at 9:15 am EST (no forecast, last read was 76.1%),
  • We get the Home Builders' index at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 64).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – Catalyst List Part 5, LPI
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »


16
Oct

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: After an early September rally, a relative stall in oil prices near the upper middle of the 2017 trading range has yielded a pause in gains prior to the 3Q17 reporting season. We see this stall as normal in front of the OPEC decision late next month and expect the group to trade well in the remainder of 4Q17 as long as imports to the U.S. stay low and OPEC production does not show further significant slippage higher as Brent and the OPEC Basket prices hold more consistently over $50. In today's post please find The Week That Was and some other odds and ends.  This week look for new name updates and more catalyst list updates as we prep for the coming 3Q17 reporting season. Along those lines, expect to see a slight pick up in group news flow. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 24.4). 

The Week Ahead: 

  • Tuesday - Import prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, home builders',
  • Wednesday - Housing starts, building permits, Beige book,
  • Thursday - Jobless claims, Philly Fed, leading economic indicators, 
  • Friday - Existing home sales.  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today 
  5. Odds & Ends

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14
Oct

Wrap – Week Ended 10/13/17

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Commodities rose late in the week. Group equities largely did not follow. Overall, pretty quiet. See details in Monday's The Week That Was segment. 

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Questions and comments under The Wrap will be addressed in the Stuff section of the Monday post. 

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The Blotter is updated. 

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Catalyst List Updates Parts 1 to 4 have been added to the E&P Catalyst Watch link at upper left. 

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Have a good weekend. 

 


13
Oct

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch: Quite group this week. Expect news flow to begin picking up next week. In today's post please find the natural gas inventory review (above early week expectations but in line with the most recent ones - our thoughts on peak storage are unchanged - see below and we note that natural gas in storage now sits at the fifth highest position for this week of the year in the last decade which speaks to strong demand despite the recent mildness when one considers we had record peak levels just last year), the oil inventory review (better than expected draw down of crude stocks even with a dip in exports and rise in imports, record for time of year gasoline but an unexpected build in gasoline stocks on still Harvey strong imports, and another draw on distillate stocks which increasingly sets them up in a price supportive stance for winter), the Catalyst List Update Part 4, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (headline F = 0.6%, last read was 0.4%, Core F = 0.2%, last read was 0.2%),
  • We get retail sales at 8:30 am EST (headline F = 1.9%, last read was -0.2%, ex autos F = 0.8%, last read was 0.2%),
  • We get consumer sentiment at 10 am EST (F = 95.0, last read was 95.1),
  • We get business inventories at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.2%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review 
  4. Oil Inventory Review
  5. Stuff We Care About Today - Catalyst List Update Part 4, Z4 4Q17 contest
  6. Odds & Ends

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12
Oct

Thursday Morning – Dualing Oil and Natural Gas Inventory Reports, Catalyst List Update Part 3

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Market Sentiment Watch: Early group weakness expected after weak API last night and despite strong longer term views out of OPEC and EIA yesterday and IEA today. Group seeking to maintain traction. In today's post please find the oil inventory preview (benign report expected, potential for downside risk is elevated on a pullback in exports and therefore higher net imports), the natural gas storage preview (consensus  has increased all week long towards a much bigger than recent weeks build), the Catalyst List Part 3 update, and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 250,000, last read was 260,000),
  • We get PPI at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.4%, last read was 0.2%). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - Catalyst List Update Part 3 
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »

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