22
May

T.G.I. Long Weekend

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Market Sentiment Watch: Yellen speaks at a conference today which could be market moving but we would otherwise expect summer like trading as traders stretch the 3 day weekend.  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (smaller than expected injection), the Orange Charts, and some other odds and ends. 

This Memorial Day I'd like to remember Pop (my wife's granddad) who passed away earlier this year.  A long time ago he was a navigator in a B-17 flying missions over Italy. Much later, his home was the center of our holidays. He is greatly missed. Thanks for everything Pop. And Thanks to all veterans including my dad (the only guy I know to have wandered into North Korea at night back when the dividing line was a single strand of wire and gotten out with only sore feet), Zorg, Italyinvestor, and you others on the site who serve and have served. It's a debt we can never begin to repay. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (Headline and Core forecasts = 0.1%, last read on both was 0.2%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - The Orange Charts, EOX, SYRG
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to Continue Reading »


21
May

Thursday Morning – OAS

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Market Sentiment Watch: Data today and Fed speeches today (Fischer) and tomorrow (Yellen) in focus before the long weekend. In energyland, news flow remains at a trickle.   In today's post please find the natural gas inventory preview, the oil inventory review (fairly positive as most pieces of the puzzle continue to move in the right direction), a wrap and cheat on OAS, and some other odds and ends.

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • Jobless claims came in at 274,000; (F = 269,000, last read was 264,000),
  • Chicago Fed came in at -0.15; (no forecast, last read was -0.36), 
  • We get existing home sales at 10 am EST (F = 5.24 mm, last read was 5.19 mm), 
  • We get Philly Fed at 10 am EST (F = 8.8 mm, last read was 7.5 mm), 
  • We get Leading Indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.2%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - with natural gas storage preview
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - OAS
  5. Odds & Ends

Please click the link right below this to Continue Reading »


20
May

Wednesday Morning – EOX

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Market Sentiment Watch: Broad market sentiment remains in "what me worry?" territory with mixed data providing the support fo the recent rally and Greece seemingly far away at the moment.  In energyland, the group entered a 3rd week of little interest so far with trepidation at hand in front of inventories (again) with bearish comments by banks (large and small) that apparently overshot the mark with their downgraded oil price targets this spring who are now doubling down on bearish comments, in a broad nutshell saying that they see a rapid resurgence in rigs due to $65 oil as capping long term oil prices at $65. Our response would be that having been on over 40 calls this quarter past we noted a trickle of "maybe we'll add a rig IF prices AND costs are stable" and not a tsunami of new bits turning to the right. Most programs are highly balance sheet focused at the moment. Our second comment, and this goes to something not addressed by bears that cast doubt on the group, is the cause behind the trickle. Increased returns. Soon $65 will be the new $90 as efficiency gains and reduced service and operational costs weigh in. And yes rigs will come back, though not nearly to last fall's peak, as we approach year end. As was always the plan for many of our names to get a jump on 2016 growth.  And our final response is that the major oil producing basins/plays are all now well below maintenance level rig counts and that the writing is on the wall for coming production declines. In today's post please find comments on the EOX roadshow with a cheat sheet and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the FOMC minutes from the April 29th meeting at 2 pm EST today. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - EOX, REXX
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »


19
May

Tuesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: In energyland, things remain fairly quiet post quarter and we would not expect a lot of news between now and the holiday. Please see comments on oil in today's Commodity Watch section (things are moving largely as expected). In today's post please find some additional post quarter catch up cheat sheets and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Housing Starts at 8:30 am EST (F 1.03 mm, last read was 926,000),
  • We get Building Permits at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 1.04 mm). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today –  MRD, CRZO, EOX, 
  4. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...

Continue Reading »


18
May

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: The 1Q15 reporting season has ground to a close and the group is digesting Spring gains.  Oil inventories are in the process of peaking and the chatter regarding tank tops is fading into the background (it will resurface in the fall of 2015). Oil prices continue to move roughly in line with our expectations. If you missed the wrap please check it out here.  In today's post please find The Week That Was (in you're in the habit of skipping this section each week, we'd suggest taking the time to peruse it as it does change each and every week and it gives you a window into our expectations in the near, medium, and longer time frames. Also in the post please find a cheat sheet wrap on LPI and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the Home Builders' Index at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 56)

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 5/19: Housing starts, building permits, 
  • Wednesday 5/20: FOMC minutes, 
  • Thursday 5/21: Jobless claims, Chicago Fed, existing home sales, Philly Fed, leading indicators
  • Friday 5/22: CPI, Markit Flash PMI

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - LPI
  5. Odds & Ends

Click the link directly below this to ...  Continue Reading »

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