27
Jul

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Fed in focus for the broad markets. In energyland, investors continue to exhibit extreme concern over E&P leverage and OPEC over production. We see mid leverage names getting lumped in with (sold heavily) the truly strapped names. Hedges being disregarded, even ones that are strongly hedged in 2016. We see M&A chances increasing on this group swoon faster than previously expected.  In today's post please find The Week That Was, the Orange Charts, a cheat sheet for COG, a catalyst list addendum for SWN in front of earnings, and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We ge Durable Goods a 8:30 am EST (F = 2.6%, last read was -2.2%)

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 7/28: Case-Shiller home prices, consumer confidence, 
  • Wednesday 7/29: Pending home sales, FOMC announcement (no rate hike this month expected and no Yellen press conference),
  • Thursday 7/30: Jobless claims, 2Q GDP revision, 
  • Friday 7/31: Employment cost index, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment, Natural Gas Monthly (supply and demand data for the month of May) / Petroleum Supply Monthly. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Energy Earnings 2Q15 Week 3 Calendar, Grid and Orange Charts, SWN catalyst addendum, COG cheat, GPOR
  5. Odds & Ends

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25
Jul

Wrap – Week Ended 7/24/15

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Questions and comments under the Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. Have a question about the site? Email zman@zmansenergybrain.com.

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24
Jul

Friday Morning – COG

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Market Sentiment Watch: Same story different day. Selloff over done in our view but doesn't mean it stops now. We're closer to adding short term positions and generally not looking to punt long held positions now. Valuations are expected to look stretched after a price decline but after the recent re-drop, more names look historically cheap with free acreage. In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (essentially in line, see notes in the Commodity Watch section), comments on the COG quarter (in line, no change in guidance, still curtailing), and some other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • China Flash PMI came in at 48.2, below last month's 49.4 and estimate of 49.7.  I have t ask if everyone is so negative on China why was the forecast looking for an up?
  • We new home sales at 10 am EST (F = 550,000, last read was 546,000)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - COG,
  5. Odds & Ends

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23
Jul

Thursday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Baby and bathwater action continues in the group against he backdrop of renewed, strengthened negativity for oil prices in the near and ongoing apathy for natural gas.   In today's post please find the natural gas inventory preview, the oil inventory review (pretty neutral - build due to imports, production held flat after last week's drop but record refiner demand for crude and continued strong finished product demand), a number of comments on names of interest (please especially see the section on CLB's macro thoughts including the down 500,000 bopd from peak April levels they see for U.S. crude production), and some other odds and ends.

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 284,000, last read was 281,000),
  • We get Chicago Fed at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was -0.17), 
  • We get Leading Indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was +0.7%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - with natural gas storage preview
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - Earnings briefs (OII, CLB, FTK), BCEI
  5. Odds & Ends

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22
Jul

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Group nervously eyeing the concept of traction but we see some fairly obvious forced selling in the market in some names (just margin calls or fund collapse it's hard to say).  Bigger than usual day for weekly data (see comments in the Commodity Watch section below). In today's post please find the Catalyst List Update Part 6 and some other odds and ends.

Interesting Reading Watch: Energy loans story, worth reading all the way to the end. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get the FHFA home price index at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.3%), 
  • We get existing home sales at 10 am EST (F = 5.42 mm, last read was 5.35 mm)

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - Catalyst List Part 6
  4. Odds & Ends

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