27
Jan

Tuesday Morning – Wattenberg, CRZO

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Market Sentiment Watch: Nervous analyst conditions persist. In today's post please find an updated look at the Wattenberg Players table with a few notes, some comments on the CRZO analyst day (another name whacks capex and adopts a hold flat with 4Q level's type 2015 production profile), and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get durable good at 8:30 am EST (F = 0.1%, last read was -0.9%), 
  • We get Case-Shiller home prices at 9 am EST (no forecast, last read was +4.6%), 
  • We get consumer confidence at 10 am EST (F = 96.9, last read was 92.6),
  • We get new home sales at 10 am EST (F = 455,000, last read was 438,000).  

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – Wattenberg, CRZO Analyst Day, WPX,  HES
  4. Odds & Ends

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26
Jan

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Slow week on the economic data front punctuated by the mid week release of the FOMC notes but we note that it is an off month in terms of press conferences and we would not expect a lot new from the Fed this month. Over the course of this week, we expect the resumption of news flow from our owned names in the ZLT as well as from a list of names we don't own, many of them in the Service space and in the integrated spaces where we will be reading and listening for their thoughts on the current environment. In today's post please find The Week That Was and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • No economic data release scheduled. Of late, it has been difficult for the broad or energy markets to make headway on no economic data days. 

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 1/27: Durable goods, Case-Shiller, consumer confidence, new home sales, President Obama visits King Salman, 
  • Wednesday 1/28: FOMC announcement, 
  • Thursday 1/29: Jobless claims, pending home sales, 
  • Friday 1/30: GDP, employment cost index, Chicago PMI, consumer sentiment. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today 
  5. Odds & Ends

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25
Jan

Wrap – Week Ended 1/23/15

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Questions and comments under the Wrap will be addressed in the Monday post. 

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23
Jan

T.G.I.F.

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Market Sentiment Watch: In energy land, nervousness continues as oil and the group seek a bottom. Big news of the last 24 hours will focus on the power transition in Saudi Arabia but we don't expect a near term oil policy shift as a result of the passing of King Abdullah. Inventories yesterday cast a shadow over oil prices again however the move up in crude stocks should not be unexpected and should be largely priced into the strip at this point (it's obvious that when utilization falls seasonally and production holds at cycle highs that you are going to see some large builds) and this has been the thinking for some time now and as such, we should be closer to the end phase of a sell the expectation, buy the reality process. Regardless, volatility is to be the rule, not the exception near term. In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (slightly smaller than expected draw but still welcome in size, next week's will be smaller), the oil inventory review (big crude build on weak utilization that was impacted by unplanned outages and despite a record low for the week for imports) and our Lame Dance Partners List (part 1). 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get the Chicago Fed index at 8:30 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.48), 
  • We get Existing Home Sales at 10 am EST (F = 5.08 mm, last read was 4.93 mm),
  • We get Leading Indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.6%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Oil Inventory Review
  5. Stuff We Care About Today - Lame Dance Partners List - Part I
  6. Odds & Ends

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22
Jan

Thursday Morning – Dualing Natural Gas and Oil Inventory Reports

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Market Sentiment Watch: All eyes on likely QE for the ECB.  Slight change in tone in the energy space (positive) as group continues to saw sideways and a number of our names fill or begin efforts to fill the November OPEC gap.  Increased news flow is expected. In today's post please find previews for the natural gas and oil inventory reports, the Catalyst List Part V update, brief comments on XCO, and several other odds and ends (primarily at the bottom of Stuff section). 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F= 298,000, last read was 316,000), 
  • We get FHFA home prices at 9 am (no forecast, last read was +4.5% YoY)

 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - Catalyst List Part V, XCO
  4. Odds & Ends

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