21
Nov

Friday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: With no economic data to be released today and option expiry we would normally expect a dull session. However, the first rate cut from China in over two years and dovish comments from the ECB are sending futures higher early. In energyland, all eyes remain locked on Iran nuclear talks and OPEC regular meeting pre chatter at this point and so we could see extra bouts of volatility as traders make bets on the commodity. Comments out of Russia this morning hint at more coordination than usual from the oft invited but seldom cooperative biggest non-OPEC player. In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (slightly bigger than expected withdrawal), another couple of hedged oil player sensitivity reads, and some other odds and ends.

Ecodata Watch: 

  • No economic data.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – EBITDA Sensitivities (OAS, RSPP)
  5. Odds & Ends

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20
Nov

Thursday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: All energy eyes focused on Iran and OPEC next week. Expect more OPEC ministerial chatter after Iran deadline passes on the 24th.  Energy is largely traction-less at the moment as moves amount to noise before next week. Gassier names are trying to put in bottoms having made oddly sympathetic moves to oily names despite the lack of real beat down in their commodity. We continue to hand sit, read, do a little math, and wait.  In today's post please find a wrap and cheat on COG, a Bakken comment, and some other odds and ends.

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 280,000; last read 290,000),
  • We get CPI at 8:30 am EST (F = -0.1% headline, +0.2% core),
  • We get Existing Home Sales at 10 am ESt (F = 5.15 mm, last read of 5.17 mm),
  • We get Philly Fed at 10 am EST (F = 18.5, last read was 20.7),
  • We get Leading Indicators at 10 am EST (no forecast, last read was 0.8%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Natural Gas Inventory Preview
  5. Stuff We Care About Today – Cheat Sheet Update – COG, Bakken Comment
  6. Odds & Ends

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19
Nov

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Very little traction in the group as buyers remain on strike in front of next week's big events. We have resumed sitting on hands after having made a few small Trading position adds over the course of the 3Q14 reporting season.  In today's post please find a debt metrics update for the Bakken Players.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Housing Starts at 8:30 am EST (F = 1.03 mm, last read was 1.02 mm),
  • We get the FOMC minutes at 2 pm EST.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Oil Inventory Preview
  4. Stuff We Care About Today –  Bakken Players – Debt Metrics
  5. Odds & Ends

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18
Nov

Tuesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Expect low E&P news flow but rising OPEC chatter between now and month end. On the oil watch side of things, prices continue to be suppressed in front of events at the end of the month. Not surprisingly, in E&P, buyers remain on strike. In today's post please find a couple of cheat sheet updates with notes as we play catchup post quarter.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get PPI at 8:30 am EST (F = -0.1%, last read -0.1%),
  • We get the Home builders' index at 10 am EST (F = 55, last read was 54).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Stuff We Care About Today – Cheat Sheet Updates (MRD, MTDR)
  4. Odds & Ends

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17
Nov

Merger Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Group remains mired in the sideways trade ahead of Iran/OPEC news next week. After talks stalled and a move to go hostile on Friday, HAL and BHI agree to combine this morning.  In today's post please find The Week That Was and a look at our plans for the week.

Ecodata Watch:

  • We get Empire State at 8:30 am EST (F = 10.5, last read was 6.2),
  • We get Industrial Production at 9:15 am EST (F = 0.2%, last read was 1.0%),
  • We get Capacity Utilization at 9:15 am EST (F = 79.3%, last read was 79.3%).

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 11/18: PPI, home builders' index,
  • Wednesday 11/19: Housing starts, FOMC minutes,
  • Thursday 11/20: Jobless claims, CPI, Markit Flash PMI, existing home sales, Philly Fed, Leading indicators.
  • Friday 11/21: No economic data release scheduled.

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today – HAL, The Week Ahead
  5. Odds & Ends

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