04
Sep

T.G.I. Long Weekend

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Market Sentiment Watch: Market looking for Goldilocks numbers today and they may have gotten something slightly stronger than that with the unemployment rate.  At lease early in the day, futures and pundits are pointing to a Fed that is more than likely to hike it's leg on the equity market later this month.   In today's post please find the natural gas inventory slide show (in line after backing a small reclassification), a number of EBITDA sensitivity runs for 2016, and some other odds and ends. If we don't speak in comments have a great and safe long weekend. The wrap will be out Sunday and our next weekly post will be out Tuesday morning. 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 173,000 vs a 213,000 forecast and a pre revision 215,000 in July.  July and June saw a combined upward revision of 44,000.
  • The unemployment rate came in at 5.1% vs 5.2% expected and 5.3% in July.   U6 came in at 10.3%, best level since June of 2008, 
  • Average hourly earnings came in at +0.3% vs +0.2% expected and +0.2% in July. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. Natural Gas Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - EBITDA Sensitivities
  5. Odds & Ends

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03
Sep

Thursday Morning – WPX

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Market Sentiment Watch: Most market eyes should be on Payrolls tomorrow - too hot and sentiment will point in the direction of a September hike. We say stop micro watching the data and make a decision (and would lean towards they're already way  late and now might not be the best time but see the "get it over with" crowd growing in numbers and perhaps doing it despite some slowing would act as a pressure relief valve for this toppy looking broad market).  News flow in energy land remains fairly slow as is typical of this week of the year. Next week the fall energy conference season kicks off with Barclays but expect news flow in terms of press releases to remain fairly muted until later in the month.  In today's post please find the natural gas inventory preview, the oil inventory review (bigger than expected headline crude build as telegraphed by API but it was largely driven by a bounce in imports that basically offset the prior week's dip there. Production continued to ebb and we expect more Lower 48 production drops through YE15 - we still expect a retest of $40 in coming weeks on the occasional outsized build in crude stocks during maintenance season but we see less down side and more upside in crude prices in coming months), a WPX Wrap and Cheat, and a few other odds and ends.

 

Ecodata Watch: 

  • The Challenger August jobs report shows energy sector jobs down 72,000 YTD (direct jobs only in the States). 
  • We get jobless claims at 8:30 am EST (F = 275,000, last read was 271,000),
  • We get the trade deficit at 8:30 am EST (F = -$41.8 B, last read was -$43.8 B),
  • We get ISM nonmanufacturing at 10 am EST (F = 58.0%, last read was 60.3%).

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch - with natural gas storage preview
  3. Oil Inventory Review
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - WPX
  5. Odds & Ends

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02
Sep

Wednesday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: China and the Fed on everyone's mind. Numerous talking head technicians now claim the bull markets is dead. We'll see. In energyland, oil stepped back off yesterday with the China PMI data and retreated further after the close on API data showing a big 7.6 mm barrel build (almost certainly on the back of a catch up in imports) as API reported a 7.3 mm barrel drop on the previous Tuesday. We are more concerned with a longer term move to balance than we are with any one week's data. We had expected crude to be pressured after the recent rapid bounce anyway and will likely reload some shorter term trades in the wake of EIA inventories today.  In today's post please find comments on HK (post 3rd lien wrap and cheat) as well as a number of other odds and ends. If you are new here and need help getting around the site or have other questions please feel free to ask them in the comments section below or email us at zman@zmansenergybrain.com.

Ecodata Watch:

  • ADP employment came in at 190,000 vs a forecast of 215,000 and last month's reading of 185,000, 
  • We get Productivity at 8:30 am EST (F = 3.2%, last read was 1.3%),
  • We get Unit Labor Costs at 8:30 am EST (F = -1.4%, last read was -0.5%),
  • We get Factor Orders at 10 am EST (F = 1.0%, last read was 1.8%),
  • We get the Beige Book at 2 pm EST.

 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h - with oil and natural gas inventory previews
  3. Stuff We Care About Today - HK, PXD
  4. Odds & Ends

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01
Sep

Macro Tuesday

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Market Sentiment Watch: China PMI data sapped the markets overnight. In energyland company news flow is end-of-summer-slow but yesterday brought the data we've been waiting months for.  After a bizarre spring upward revision to U.S. oil production that didn't match Texas data or make a lot of sense in general, EIA reversed course yesterday, lowering it's estimate of the first five months of 2015 by an average of 67,000 bopd (including a 291,000 bopd reduction for May) and putting forth the first June figure at 9.3 mm bopd, 100,000 bopd below it's May number. You might recall that last week's weekly dataset showed the week of 8/21 production at 9.337 mm bopd. Recall that in late May, when EIA revised the production data higher, it was a nail in the coffin of what had been a decent early 2015 bounce in crude prices.  Oil prices stagnated and rolled lower from that point.  Despite record throughput and gasoline demand and record low imports. And despite inventories that peaked at a very high level to be sure but didn't top the tanks or "not peak at all" as a number of sellside types contended.  So thanks to EIA for coming out with this more comprehensive dataset which they now say captures "more than 90%" of U.S. production.  Thanks too to those that questioned EIA and their biggest gap to reality with the Texas data.  We expect the weekly and the STEO to play catch up to the new reality in the near term. In today's post please find the natural gas supply and demand slide shows as well as an updated U.S. crude production slide show taking into account the latest data revisions.  

Ecodata Watch:

  • Markit China PMI final reading for August was 47.3, down from July's 47.8 but above the flash reading of 47.1,
  • Official China PMI came in at 49.7, down from 50 in July and the lows level since August 2012, 
  • We get ISM at 10 am EST (F = 52%, last read was 52.7%), 
  • We get Construction Spending at 10 am EST (F = 0.9%, last read was 0.1%).
  • We get car sales over the course of the day (F = 17.3 mm, last read was 17.5 mm). 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watch
  3. U.S. Oil Production - with new and improved (revised lower) data 
  4. Natural Gas Production - Resilient - TX taking longer to fall off due to the Permian, Other States has apparently stalled but part of this is curtailments
  5. Natural Gas Imports - Holding at the lows
  6. Natural Gas Demand - New record high for June on the back of a strong gas-fired generation
  7. Stuff We Care About Today 
  8. Odds & Ends

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31
Aug

Monday Morning

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Market Sentiment Watch: Different week, same volatility. Big week on the economic data front culminating in Payrolls on Friday which will be viewed with even greater interest than usual as the Fed appears to very much remain in coin toss land for a September rate hike even at this late date.   In energyland, we saw a rare post May 1 positive week for the groups with the XOP and XNG gaining 5% on the week and the ZLT portfolios up 4 to 10%. The OIH, possibly inspired in delayed reaction fashion to the SLB bid for CAM advanced 9% last week (we currently only hold HAL in that space). We normally expect this to be one of the quieter weeks of the year in terms of energy news flow.  In today's post please find The Week That Was and a few other odds and ends. 

Ecodata Watch:

  • We ge Chicago PMI at 9:45 am EST (no forecast, ast read was 54.7),
  • EIA - Petroleum Supply Monthly - later today.
  • EIA - Natural Gas Monthly - later today. 

The Week Ahead:

  • Tuesday 9/1: Markit PMI, ISM, Construction spending, car sales, 
  • Wednesday 9/2: ADP employment, productivity, unit labor costs, factory orders, Beige Book, 
  • Thursday 9/3: Jobless claims, trade deficit, ISM nonmanuacturing, 
  • Friday 9/4: Nonfarm Payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings. 

In Today’s Post:

  1. Holdings Watch
  2. Commodity Watc​h
  3. The Week That Was
  4. Stuff We Care About Today - WPX
  5. Odds & Ends

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